We have a trade!
Tampa Bay Rays get: OF/1B Jose Martinez, OF Randy Arozarena, compensation pick A (after first round)
St. Louis Cardinals get: LHP Matthew Liberatore (MLB.com's No. 41 overall prospect), low-level catching prospect Edgardo Rodriguez, compensation pick B (after second round)
I love it. It's what an old-school general manager might refer to as a "baseball trade." You have somebody we like. We have somebody you like. It's not trading a player because he'll be a free agent in two years. It's not dumping a big contract for low-level prospects. It's an old-fashioned challenge trade. Let's review.
Why the Rays did it: The Rays had just three outfielders on their 40-man roster in Austin Meadows, Hunter Renfroe and Kevin Kiermaier, although Brandon Lowe played out there a bit in 2019 and Joey Wendle some in 2018. Now they add two more outfield options -- although Martinez's best position is DH -- and it cost them a prized pitching prospect in Liberatore, the kind of high-upside, cost-controlled arm the Rays rarely include in trades.
Martinez is the biggest name in the deal, a reliable role player the past three seasons for the Cardinals. After hitting .309/.379/.518 in 2017 and .305/.364/.457 in 2018, however, he fell off to .269/.340/.410 in 2019 despite the increased offensive levels across the league. Over his career, he's been lethal against left-handed pitching, with a .976 OPS versus .775 against right-handers. The Rays will hope for a rebound season from Martinez, similar to what happened last year with Avisail Garcia, who bounced back from a terrible 2018 season with the White Sox and had a solid season with the Rays.
The concern is Martinez's average exit velocity fell off from 90.7 mph to 88.6 mph. He also hits too many balls on the ground to take full advantage of his natural power (he's 6-foot-6). Given his defensive limitations, he's best suited for the DH role, and given his platoon splits, the Rays may look to platoon him at DH with Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, the lefty slugger they signed out of Japan who is listed as a third baseman on the Tampa Bay roster but who also has a best position of "hitter." The Rays' designated hitters ranked just 13th in the AL in OPS in 2019, so a Martinez/Tsutsugo platoon projects as a big improvement.
Arozarena was signed out of Cuba in 2016 and had a breakout season at age 24 in 2019, hitting .309 in 28 games in Double-A, then pounding the Triple-A rabbit ball to the tune of a .358/.435/.593 line in 64 games, earning a late-season cup of joe with the Cardinals. He has the speed to play center field, and while he hadn't done much before 2019, it's hard to ignore the numbers. At worst, the right-handed hitter should give the Rays the short side of a platoon; at best, they picked up a player who could be a solid-average regular. It wouldn't be shocking if Arozarena has a better season than any of the Cardinals' current outfielders.
Why the Cardinals did it: St. Louis deals from its outfield depth to acquire one of the top left-handed pitching prospects in the minors. A couple of years ago, the Cardinals would have been looking at a 2020 rotation that included Carlos Martinez (who had a 3.24 ERA as a starter from 2015 to 2017), Alex Reyes (regarded as perhaps the top pitching prospect in the game entering 2017) and Jack Flaherty. While Flaherty emerged in 2019 as a Cy Young contender, Martinez is now a reliever and Reyes has barely pitched the past three seasons.
The Rays drafted Liberatore 16th overall in 2018 out of Mountain Ridge High School in Glendale, Arizona. At the time, it was surprising he fell that far as he was in the mix earlier that spring for the top overall pick, and the Reds tried to cut a deal with him with the fifth pick. Keith Law called him the best lefty in the draft -- college or high school -- and wrote that "landing a player of this caliber at a pick that begins the second half of the first round is kind of unbelievable. He's projectable with a four-pitch mix already, primarily fastball-curve-change, has a great delivery from the windup and very good feel for pitching for a teenager."
In his first full professional season, Liberatore threw just 78 innings for Bowling Green in the Midwest League. The Rays held him back in extended spring training to manage his innings, he missed a couple of weeks in August with back tightness, and he pitched more than four innings just twice after June 28. The scouting report remains similar to his draft report, with the caveat that he hasn't pitched much, so the usual concerns about durability remain unanswered. Still, as a polished lefty who should start the season in high A, he could reach the majors in 2021 if he's on a fast track or, more likely, 2022.
Of course, this does nothing to solve the Cardinals' lineup issues. They were just 10th in the National League in runs scored in 2019 and now the outfield depth has been purged -- not that the outfield was that great, ranking 20th in the majors in wOBA (and that was with free agent Marcell Ozuna). Harrison Bader had a OPS+ of 78, you have no idea what Dexter Fowler will do in 2020, and Tyler O'Neill's swing-and-miss issues (he has 110 strikeouts and just 17 walks in his major league career) limit his upside. Prospect Dylan Carlson is just about major league ready, but Tommy Edman may see a lot of innings out there, which means more of Matt Carpenter at third base, coming off a rough .226/.334/.392 season.
While the lure of Liberatore's upside was too much to turn down, you wonder if another move with more immediate impact for the big league roster is needed in St. Louis. Could the Cardinals enter the Nolan Arenado trade sweepstakes?