The San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers swung a bit of a prospect challenge trade the day before Thanksgiving, with San Diego sending middle infielder Luis Urias to Milwaukee for outfielder Trent Grisham in a deal that also saw the teams swap starting pitchers, with Eric Lauer going to the Brewers and Zach Davies going to San Diego.
It's a surprising move both ways, as the Padres had been high on Urias' bat before seemingly souring on him last season, while the Brewers walk away from their 2015 first-rounder just as he turned the corner at the plate. It's a trade with upside for both teams and at least holds out the promise of a win-win.
Urias had been among the team's top five prospects for a while but hasn't hit in two small stints in the majors in the past 15 months, with a .221/.318/.331 line in 302 PAs in that time and an OBP boosted by some extra walks when he batted eighth in 2019. He really enjoyed the use of the Happy Fun Ball in Triple-A last year, hitting 19 homers in 73 games for El Paso, and his launch angle increased 6 degrees from 2018, which seems like a reaction to his Triple-A power that hasn't translated to the majors yet. His calling card prior to last season was a compact swing that produced very high contact rates with doubles power but probably no more than eight to 10 homers a year, and it is possible that the changed approach from the different baseball is why his strikeout rate in the majors this year was by far the highest he'd posted at any level. He's an above-average to plus defender at second, capable at shortstop but probably fringe average in the end. The Brewers don't really have entrenched incumbents at either position, but if they've decided that Keston Hiura can't play second base, Urias could be the long-term answer there.
Grisham was an outside shot to be the fourth overall pick in the 2015 draft, although Texas ended up taking Dillon Tate instead, and Grisham went to Milwaukee with the 15th pick. For three seasons, he did nothing in the minors but draw a lot of walks, never hitting for more than a .233 average or a .348 slugging percentage from 2016 to 2018, but he broke out in his age-22 season in 2019, hitting .300/.407/.603 between Double-A and Triple-A and playing 51 games for the Brewers at the end of the season. He went back to his unusual golf-like grip on the bat near the end of the 2018 season and also became more aggressive earlier in counts in 2019, resulting in more and better contact. He had 19 homers in total in pro ball from 2015 to 2018, then hit 26 homers in the minors in 2019 and six more in the majors. He played some center for the Brewers in the fall, but he's a corner outfielder, best suited to left field. The OBP/power combination should make him an above-average regular there as well.
The teams also swapped back-end starters in the trade, with the Brewers adding the cheaper lefty in Lauer and the Padres getting the more experienced Davies. Lauer doesn't have an above-average pitch, although his fastball was more effective than that in 2019, in part because he offset it with a cutter, but his breaking stuff is below average and left-handed hitters teed off on him this year with a .331/.384/.530 line. Davies' velocity is even fringier, with a fastball in the upper 80s, but he leans heavily on a plus changeup that Fangraphs had as the fourth-most valuable in the majors this year. He's a strong fly ball pitcher, which should play well when he's pitching at home. Davies is entering his second year of arbitration, so he's a free agent after 2021, while Lauer has five years of control remaining before he hits free agency.
I do wonder if this is a precursor to something bigger for the Padres, who already have Josh Naylor, a below-average defender with plus power, penciled in for left field (along with whatever they do with Wil Myers) and just-acquired left-field prospect Taylor Trammell probably a year away. They have a surplus of fourth-outfield types, including Hunter Renfroe (a .294 career OBP in 1,450 PAs) and Franchy Cordero, who missed nearly all of 2019 with a sprained elbow, but nobody here who clearly projects as an above-average-or-better regular at any outfield spot. Maybe having Grisham and Trammell means they package up some of their other outfield options to get a big starter; maybe one of those two guys ends up moving in another trade. They're also down a second baseman at the moment, although prospect Owen Miller could step into that role at some point in 2020, with Xavier Edwards probably a year to 18 months beyond that.
The Brewers, meanwhile, saved a little money on their fifth starter spot and took a shot at solving one of their two middle infield holes. Moving Hiura, whose throwing arm is going to be an issue at almost any position, might free him up to just worry about hitting, which is why he was a top-10 pick in his own draft class. They're going to need to get another starter from outside the organization as well, and saving the $4 million to $5 million they would have paid Davies might allow them to get someone stronger for the top of their rotation.
The Rangers signed Kyle Gibson to a three-year, $30 million deal, banking on the new environment extracting more from his above-average stuff. His slider is an out pitch, and offseason training before 2019 gave him a velocity spike up to a career-high average of 93.8 mph. That bigger velocity didn't translate to better results on the pitch, though, as he gave up way too much hard contact on the fastball. Texas could see if it can get him to pitch more off the slider or work up in the zone more (rather than away and up to right-handers, up and in to lefties), or just anything else to make a fastball that shouldn't be this hittable more of a weapon. He brings durability, gets ground balls and has the raw material to be a lot more than a fourth or fifth starter, but he's coming on a back-end starter's salary, so this seems like a very good upside play for Texas.