WASHINGTON -- The Houston Astros' Jose Altuve is a future Hall of Famer. That's not exactly a factual statement, or at least it's not factual yet. But it sure seems likely to become true.
Altuve is 29 years old; he'll turn 30 shortly after the start of next season. He just completed his ninth big league season. It doesn't work like this, but you can kind of imagine his final career totals at this juncture by simply doubling his current numbers. Those would include a .315 batting average, second among active players, and a projected 3,136 hits. He has won three batting titles, led the AL in hits four times, won an MVP award and a Gold Glove. He has all the earmarks of a Hall of Famer.
He's also very much on top of his game. This October, Altuve has extended his playoff on-base streak to 25 games, tied for the third-longest ever. He has hit safely in 15 of 16 games this October, one shy of the record for most games with a hit in a single postseason.
Yet if you ask Altuve about himself, he will invariably deflect. He won't take credit for anything. If he charged into a burning bus to rescue a shoebox full of kittens, he would credit the kittens.
"Those kittens were so calm and confident," Altuve would say. "You have to give them credit. Without them, there would have been no opportunity for a rescue. Those kittens got us here."
That is Jose Altuve. During the World Series, he leads all hitters with nine hits and after every game, media huddles around his locker hoping for comment and you know why -- he's one of baseball's marquee players. And, always, Altuve will talk about everybody but himself. He and his Houston teammates have pulled off a stunning turnaround from an 0-2 Fall Classic deficit to take an 3-2 lead back to Texas. But as confident as Altuve is from a team perspective, to hear him tell it, he's hardly had anything to do with it.
So fine, Jose. You don't want to take credit, how about this: If you had to pick an MVP of the series so far, who would it be?
"I don't know," Altuve said. "This is tough. [George] Springer. Michael Brantley. [Alex] Bregman. [Carlos] Correa. [Robinson] Chirinos. Yordan [Alvarez]. Yuli [Gurriel]. Everybody."
Thanks for clearing that up, Jose. You just named the entire roster. Except for yourself.
"I'd give the MVP to everybody," Altuve said. "They're doing really good. And Zack Greinke! Jose Urquidy! Hopefully, we'll get 25 MVPs."
Twenty-five MVPs! It's the most Jose Altuve comment ever. Alas, that's not how it's going to turn out. Five games into the World Series, heroes have not moved to the fore, and conversely, goats are only just starting to kick at the dirt, in fear of wearing those horns into the history books.
That leaves it to us to figure out: Who is most responsible for getting us to where we are in the Series? And not just from the Astros -- let's not forget about a Nationals team that has won a couple of games as well, and may have Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer going for them in what they hope are two more games.
Well, to answer the question, we recognize that this has been a disparate World Series on the hero front. There hasn't been a clearly charted hero's journey, at least not one so compelling that George Lucas would want to make trilogy out of it.
Let's start with the hitters. Altuve leads in hits, as mentioned. Here are the top five:
1. Altuve, 9
2. Michael Brantley, 8
3. Yuli Gurriel, 7
4. George Springer, Adam Eaton, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, 6
Soto and Springer are tied in total bases with 14. Alex Bregman leads everyone with seven RBIs. Springer's five runs scored top the charts. Alvarez, who had to come off the bench in two of the three games at Washington, leads the slash categories, though he's got just 13 plate appearances: .545/.616/.818.
Well, shoot. It's an ensemble. Maybe the pitchers will offer a clearer choice. Spoiler alert: They don't.
Gerrit Cole's brilliant Game 5 was the best single outing we've seen from a pitcher during the Series. But he also started Game 1 and gave up five runs. Cole gets the volume edge as the only pitcher to make two starts so far. (Max Scherzer would have joined him had he not been a late Game 5 scratch because of a pain in the neck.)
Cole isn't just the only pitcher with two starts -- he's thrown twice as many innings (14) as any other pitcher in the series. And the two who are tied for second with seven frames -- Joe Ross and Patrick Corbin -- both have World Series ERAs over 5.00.
You can kind of guess the point. The World Series has been full of compelling and not-so-compelling performances. But the sources of the former outings have been from all over the map. Perhaps Altuve will get his wish -- you couldn't tab an MVP at this juncture if you tried.
"We've done it all year," Brantley -- one of Altuve's many MVP picks -- said. "Guys get hurt, guys step up. We all contributed. It's a different guy every night. When you have that, it's scary."
There's an advanced metric out there called win probability added (WPA). The calculation of it is complex but the explanation is actually very simple: Every play in baseball changes the probability for both teams of winning the game. WPA awards these changes in probability to individual players -- a hitter and a pitcher on every play. Tally these changes up, and you have a player's WPA for a given game, series or season.
Here's where we stand through five games of the World Series:
1. George Springer (.326 WPA)
2. Juan Soto (.302)
3. Gerrit Cole (.257)
4. Tanner Rainey (.167)
5. Kyle Tucker (.079)
Strange list, right? Well, it's been a strange series in many ways. Rainey should not be on this list. It's not his fault, and the fact that he is on it suggests that he has come through in some clutch spots. But perhaps it might have been a better indicator for Washington if one of its high-leverage pitchers were actually standing out for their work in high-leverage spots.
As for Tucker, he has had two key walks as a pinch hitter in the series. Good for The Kid II, but it's not MVP material.
No, according to WPA, it's a battle between Springer, Soto and Cole. And Cole may not pitch again. (But he may, and if he does, you can bet it'll be in a high-leverage capacity.) Springer and Soto both homered in Game 5, bolstering their résumés.
Still, it feels like the World Series MVP could actually emerge from one of the laggards in WPA. Seem strange? Well, look at the laggards:
LOWEST WPA, POSTSEASON POSITION PLAYERS
Altuve (minus-.150)
Alex Bregman (-.130)
Anthony Rendon (-.113)
Michael Brantley (-.109)
Martin Maldonado (-.104)
Carlos Correa (-.094)
We'll understand if you want to overlook Maldonado in this group. Beyond that, we're looking at many of the most accomplished players in the Series. It's big moments from players like this that tend to mark a World Series as memorable. While we've had some good things, we haven't had that seminal moment just yet. If we get one, it just feels like it'll be one of these flagging stars. And if it's Altuve, would anyone really be surprised after what we saw in the AL Championship Series?
Barring any of that, Altuve will be right. They'll have to give 25 MVP awards. And maybe that will tell us all we need to know about the champion that will be crowned at some point over the next few days.
"It seems like every day is somebody different," Altuve said. "Yordan. Carlos. Springer yesterday. Michael Brantley. Chirinos. It's someone else every day."
We know, Jose! But it's October, the time for heroes in baseball. If one emerges this fall, it'll happen this week in Houston. And, we're sorry, Mr. Altuve, but that hero may just turn out to be you.