WASHINGTON -- After each game of the National League Championship Series, it was the same response from a sad St. Louis Cardinals hitter of your choice: We just have to figure it out, we have to do better, we're not frustrated. (Narrator: They were frustrated.) They never did solve the vaunted Washington Nationals rotation, however, and hit just .130 in the series as the Nationals sent the Cardinals home in four games, the first sweep in an LCS since the Mets swept the Cubs in 2015.
Still, it was a positive season for the Cardinals. They won a tough division and made the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Given the recent decades of success for this franchise, a three-year gap without making the playoffs was unthinkable to Cardinals fans. Under Mike Shildt, in his first full season as skipper, the Cardinals improved their defense, Jack Flaherty emerged in the second half as one of the top starting pitchers in the game, Kolten Wong had his best season and rookie Tommy Edman provided a versatile bat and energy while leading the team -- believe it or not -- in slugging percentage.
The big move last season was acquiring first baseman Paul Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks for a package of young players and then signing Goldschmidt to a five-year, $130 million extension that will run through 2024, his age-36 season. It wasn't your typical Cardinals move, but it seemed like the perfect fit, the low-key superstar going to St. Louis. Goldschmidt had a good season, playing 161 games and hitting 34 home runs, but his 113 OPS+ was the lowest of his career and his 2.8 bWAR much lower than the 6.1 he averaged over the previous six seasons.
What will happen this offseason? Marcell Ozuna is their biggest free agent, along with franchise icon Adam Wainwright and long-time pitcher Michael Wacha. Here are their big offseason questions:
1. What will they do in the outfield?
As we saw in the NLCS, this wasn't a powerhouse offense, even in the regular season. The Cardinals ranked 10th in the National League in runs and the outfielders hit a combined .244/.334/.420, ranking 20th in the majors in wOBA and 21st in isolated power. Ozuna's two seasons in St. Louis were solid, although not as spectacular as his 2017 season with the Marlins, and his two big mistakes in Game 3 of the NLCS -- getting caught off second on a comebacker to the pitcher and then dropping a fly ball -- certainly didn't increase his likelihood of returning to St. Louis.
The Cardinals have several options on hand. They still have Dexter Fowler, who followed up a miserable 2018 with a better season. But he'll be 34 years old. Harrison Bader is an elite, Gold Glover-caliber center fielder, but he hit .205. Edman can play right field if he's not at third base. Tyler O'Neill remains a tooled-up talent, but his career strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors is now 110 to 17. Randy Arozarena hit .344/.431/.571 between Double-A and Triple-A, although he doesn't project as a big power guy. Another internal option is Dylan Carlson, the team's top prospect, who reached Triple-A for 18 games (and hit .361) and could force his way into the picture in spring training or early in the season.
2. Will they go after a big free agent?
That's certainly not the Cardinals' way and their big moves the past two offseasons were trading for Ozuna and Goldschmidt. The year before, they did sign Fowler to a five-year contract. Matt Carpenter makes $18.5 million each of the next two seasons. Do they let it ride with him given that contract after his OPS+ fell from 143 to 91? Or do they make a run at Anthony Rendon or Josh Donaldson to play third base and give them another middle-of-the-order bat? Ozuna is probably the top outfielder available in free agency along with Nicholas Castellanos (although Castellanos is a subpar defender).
3. What about the rotation?
Maybe the biggest reason for the Cardinals' success was the health of their rotation. Flaherty, Wainwright, Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson each made at least 31 starts, and Wacha made 24. They needed only 10 starts outside of that top five and used just two pitchers to do that -- the Cardinals' seven starters used were the fewest of any team (three had nine). Wainwright appears intent on coming back for another season, so you would expect the Cardinals to re-sign him, especially since he had his best season since 2014. Wacha's ailments the past couple of seasons, plus a 5.61 FIP in 2019, make him a riskier proposition.
Daniel Ponce de Leon is an internal option, as is Austin Gomber, who had moderate success as a rookie in 2018 (he started the year in Triple-A and missed most of the season because of shoulder and biceps issues). Alex Reyes is still around but has now suffered through consecutive injury-shortened seasons. Gerrit Cole will be out of their price range in free agency, but if the Cardinals don't add to the offense, you could see them possibly going after one of the other veteran starters in free agency like Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu or Zack Wheeler.
4. Help for Yadi?
Yadier Molina hit .270/.312/.399, and though he played only 113 games, that was due to a thumb injury that kept him out for more than a month. When he returned on Aug. 13 with the Cardinals battling for a division title, he started 45 of the team's final 50 games and every playoff game. Yes, Molina wants to be out there every game, and maybe he should be out there every game in October, but that's a lot to ask for a 36-year-old catcher -- who will be 37 next season, obviously.
He struggled at the plate in the postseason, but Shildt kept him in the fifth slot of the lineup, as if Molina would somehow magically conjure up peak Molina at the plate. Before his solo home run in the Cards' Game 4 loss to end the NLCS, his two big RBIs in Game 4 of the NLDS had been the only two runs he had all postseason. That homer was just his second in his past 74 postseason games. At the minimum, he's not a guy who should be hitting fifth for a playoff team in October, and in the big picture the Cardinals have to start think about getting him more help -- maybe that's prospect Andrew Knizner, who had an .821 OPS at Triple-A, maybe it's somebody else.
5. Can the bullpen be improved?
Carlos Martinez had his rough moments in the postseason, although he was a nonfactor in the NLCS since the Cardinals never had the lead. He should be back as the team's closer after saving 24 games in 27 opportunities during the regular season. Giovanny Gallegos had a breakout season and looks like an impact reliever. Free agent Andrew Miller was a bit of a disappointment and had turned mostly into a lefty specialist by season's end. Overall, the Cardinals ranked fifth in the majors with a 3.82 bullpen ERA, so this was hardly a problem area. Still, it never felt like an outstanding strength either, in part because the pen ranked 23rd in the majors in walk rate. There is some talent down there and if the relievers can cut down on the walks, this should be one of the better bullpens in 2020 (caveat: you know about bullpens).