Shortly before the Chicago Cubs earned their place in history in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series, Joe Maddon watched his team take batting practice, standing to the side of the cage and mulling the criticism of his handling of closer Aroldis Chapman the day before. He was circumspect, as always, confident in presenting his reasoning, while acknowledging with humor that any managerial decisions will forever be viewed through the prism of the results.
Which, in the end, sums up Maddon's tenure. His time with the Cubs is over because of the front office's frustration with what it viewed as a slow, emotionless fade off that World Series high of three years ago, concluding with a complete collapse in 2019. But Maddon will get Hall of Fame consideration and might ultimately deliver a speech in Cooperstown because he managed the Cubs to perhaps the most famous baseball title ever -- the end of a 108-year drought.
He moves on, with his new restaurant and his legacy intact at Wrigley Field, at the outset of what a general manager noted is the busiest manager market in years, with turnover that might exceed 20%. Let's look at some of the situations where we could see changes in the dugout:
• Starting with the Cubs, former catcher David Ross has long been considered a possible candidate to follow Maddon, but friends say it's unclear whether this is something that Ross, an ESPN analyst, wants to pursue right now. A high-ranking executive notes that if Ross actually has ambition to manage, this would be the optimal moment to pursue a job because he's been out of the game only a few years.
"With how quickly everything changes in this sport," the executive said, "he probably isn't going to be a hot name [for manager jobs] in a couple of years."
The Cubs have done a lot of background work on former Cub and former Yankees manager Joe Girardi, who has made it known to others that he would prefer an opportunity in which he can have a chance to win. Girardi was a candidate to manage the Reds last fall, but ultimately passed on the chance, at a time when Cincinnati had years of development ahead.
• The Mets: Mickey Callaway is signed through 2020, but the Mets have been asking around and considering possible alternatives. Some rival executives expect the Mets to fire Callaway, who survived some tenuous moments during the 2019 season, partly because he wasn't hired by Brodie Van Wagenen, who will soon begin his second year at the helm of the team's baseball operations.
Van Wagenen might have a chance to bring on his own manager for what will be a crossroad season for the franchise: They have enormous assets invested in trying to win in 2020, with Marcus Stroman eligible for free agency next fall and Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz eligible to hit the market in November 2021. If Callaway is fired, Van Wagenen could consider someone like Joe Espada, the Astros' bench coach, who presumably has the endorsement of Van Wagenen's college roommate and longtime friend, A.J. Hinch, Houston's manager.
As a first-time manager, Espada would fit neatly into any budget. The Mets could pursue more experienced managers -- Maddon, Girardi, Buck Showalter, etc. -- but those options could be much more expensive, as well.
• The Phillies: The lines seem to be drawn within the Philadelphia organization, and Gabe Kapler's fate seems to come down to this: What does owner John Middleton want? General manager Matt Klentak hired Kapler and has expressed confidence in Kapler's work, despite back-to-back September collapses by the team, and some rival evaluators suggest that any objective analysis is that Kapler has been adept in his in-game managing.
But the Phillies' vocal fan base has expressed its opinion -- it wants change -- and Middleton has acknowledged that this is a voice that matters to him. He stepped in when the fan base clamored for Bryce Harper over Manny Machado last offseason and executed a record-setting deal with Harper, and in August, Middleton asked Charlie Manuel to replace John Mallee as hitting coach.
If Middleton orders a change, the ties with available candidates are deep. Maddon is a Pennsylvania native, a product of Hazelton. Mike Scioscia, another Pennsylvania native, attended Penn State long before managing the Angels for 19 years. Team president Andy MacPhail was with the Baltimore Orioles when they hired Buck Showalter, who might be an excellent win-now option. And, yes, they could pursue Girardi.
• The Giants: Farhan Zaidi is reshaping the organization, from the scouting department -- from which he has let many holdovers go -- to the 40-man roster to the staff. Bruce Bochy is on his way out, and Zaidi's habit is to cast a wide net. He could always look for a veteran manager, but he also has privately inquired about some younger candidates who have never managed. If the Phillies fire Kapler, some of his peers wonder whether Zaidi might talk to Kapler, given their time spent together as peers in the Dodgers' front office.
• The Padres: A.J. Preller made the decision to fire Andy Green last weekend, near the end of what is the team's ninth consecutive losing season, and rival executives think Preller has a challenge ahead in picking Green's successor.
On one hand, Preller must find a manager who could help foster a young and developing group of talented pitchers, whose success will ultimately determine whether the Padres can finally climb over .500. On the other hand, he must find someone who can connect with the team's stars -- third baseman Manny Machado, first baseman Eric Hosmer and shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr.
No matter who is picked to manage, that person's contract will be dwarfed by the nine years remaining on Machado's deal. "A.J. kind of needs Manny's approval, doesn't he?" asked another GM. "It doesn't have to be Manny's choice, but it makes sense that they would talk to Manny as they went along [through the process]."
There has been published speculation that Preller might have interest in Braves coach Ron Washington, someone Preller knows from their days together in the Texas organization. But to date, there is no indication that this is anything more than speculation.
• The Royals: Ned Yost heads into retirement, and Royals general manager Dayton Moore -- firmly entrenched, it appears, after hours of meetings with the team's new ownership -- will talk with internal candidates such as Dale Sveum and Pedro Grifol, as well as special assistant Mike Matheny, formerly the manager of the Cardinals. Matheny has been viewed as the likely successor to Yost, but presumably, some of the questions Moore would ask Matheny would be about possible adjustments. After Matheny left the Cardinals, players were fairly outspoken about welcoming a change in culture under new manager Mike Shildt, with some of them believing the atmosphere under Matheny was simply too onerous.
• The Pirates: It has been a disastrous year for the big league team, from the continued fallout from the Chris Archer trade to the declining attendance to the arrest of closer Felipe Vazquez. Owner Bob Nutting is said by sources to be considering the state of the organization, and if he makes sweeping changes, manager Clint Hurdle could be among those on the way out. [Editor's note: This particular prediction panned out Sunday not long after the Maddon move.]