I don't have an awards ballot this year, the first time I've been shut out two straight years since the BBWAA begrudgingly admitted me in 2009, but that does mean I get to talk about how I'd vote for all six player awards now rather than waiting until November to reveal one of them. Don't ask me about the Manager of the Year award; I have become even more convinced over time that we can't tease out a good manager's contributions from those of his players.
AL MVP:
1. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
2. Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros
3. Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox
4. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Houston Astros
5. Justin Verlander, RHP, Houston Astros
6. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox
7. George Springer, OF, Houston Astros
8. Lance Lynn, RHP, Texas Rangers
9. Marcus Semien, SS, Oakland Athletics
10. Matt Chapman, 3B, Oakland Athletics
It's Trout, again, although we all know there's a good chance the voters will decide to honor somebody else because the Angels missed the playoffs or because they just undervalue Trout since he's been so good for so long now. Bregman had a wonderful season, and if you want to give him the American League Most Valuable Player Not Named Mike Trout award, by all means do so. Note that the standings-related argument doesn't really hold water here, as the Astros would be in first place even if you replaced Bregman with a replacement-level player.
It is a bit astonishing that the Red Sox had two players worthy of top-10 spots on the ballot and another who'd be in the next tier in Rafael Devers, yet are still going to finish 10 games out of a playoff spot because their pitching cratered.
NL MVP:
1. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
3. Jacob deGrom, RHP, New York Mets
4. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals
5. Max Scherzer, RHP, Washington Nationals
6. Ketel Marte, OF/IF, Arizona Diamondbacks
7. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies
8. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
9. Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves
10. Patrick Corbin, LHP, Washington Nationals
Bellinger grabbed the early lead and then Yelich made a big run for the top spot over the summer, but I think Yelich's injury ends up deciding this race in Bellinger's favor. Bellinger has a huge lead by rWAR but is slightly behind (with a few games to go) by fWAR. I'm always biased a bit in favor of position players who contribute on defense as well, whether by position or defensive skill; Bellinger has played a little bit in center field, but he's a plus defender in right field and at first.
It would have been great to see Acuna Jr. get to 40/40, but even the unwieldy 37/37 is quite an achievement, as only 13 other players in MLB history have done it. I'd also like to note that I called this Ketel Marte breakout ... except it was for 2016. Close!
AL Cy Young:
1. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Houston Astros
2. Justin Verlander, RHP, Houston Astros
3. Lance Lynn, RHP, Texas Rangers
4. Shane Bieber, RHP, Cleveland Indians
5. Mike Minor, LHP, Texas Rangers
I could see either of the Astros candidates winning this award, and being deserving of it, and there's a strong sabermetric argument in favor of Minor -- although the extent of the adjustments required to make his case makes even me uncomfortable. I gave the nod to Cole because he has a much higher strikeout rate than Verlander and a lower FIP, as Verlander's BABIP of .218 is definitely a function of Houston's defense -- it's the lowest BABIP of Verlander's career, way below his career mark of .281. If you want to vote for Verlander, who did lead the league in innings and has the highest rWAR among AL pitchers, I won't argue.
NL Cy Young:
1. Jacob deGrom, RHP, New York Mets
2. Max Scherzer, RHP, Washington Nationals
3. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
4. Patrick Corbin, LHP, Washington Nationals
5. Jack Flaherty, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Scherzer has the edge in FIP, deGrom in ERA, so Fangraphs has them nearly even in WAR, while Baseball Reference (which uses ERA) has deGrom well ahead. When in doubt, I often lean toward the pitcher who pitched more, and deGrom has a 25-inning lead at this point. He also pitched in front of a defense that was not terribly helpful.
AL ROY:
1. Yordan Alvarez, OF, Houston Astros
2. Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays
3. John Means, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Kind of an uninspiring rookie crop in the AL this year, with Vlad Guerrero Jr. having such a disappointing season at the plate and in the field (with a minus-10 UZR in 815 innings, worst of any third baseman in MLB) and his teammate Bo Bichette coming up a bit too late to make the top three. Alvarez is going to win this, probably unanimously, since there really isn't a viable alternative, although my preference in these awards is definitely for players who contribute on both sides of the ball.
NL ROY:
1. Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
2. Fernando Tatis Jr, SS, San Diego Padres
3. Mike Soroka, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Tatis was on track for this award, with 3.6 fWAR in just 82 games, before his season-ending injury, which leaves Alonso and Soroka as the two probable contenders. Alonso's going to win in a rout -- he set the NL rookie home run record in this juiced-ball season -- but there's a decent case for Soroka, who's already at 4 WAR in 28 starts and is one of only three rookie pitchers in MLB to qualify for the ERA title this year. If someone puts Tatis first, though, it would be entirely reasonable -- he was worth two-thirds as much by WAR as Alonso in half the playing time, and Tatis is four years younger.