At the beginning of the season, everyone is advised not to get too worked up over what happens in the first couple of weeks. Every team and player will have plenty of time to get the kinks worked out or cool off after a hot start, we're told, and the first two weeks are just a couple out of a long season.
With just over two weeks to go, though, what happens going forward will determine the fate of a handful of teams playing to earn wild-card bids to the postseason and the right to square off in the play-in games to join the division winners on October's playoff slate. While trying to predict what will happen in these next two weeks is folly, there are some keys to watch for in the close races that could impact who makes the playoffs and who starts their offseason a few days early.
Jump to ... American League | National League
American League
Cleveland Indians: Who will step up after Francisco Lindor?
Cleveland's star is doing his part with eight home runs in the past two weeks, but he can't do it alone. Yasiel Puig hasn't hit much since coming over from Cincinnati. Franmil Reyes has been hot and cold for a week at a time and put up a hitting line 40% above average over the past month overall, but Cleveland could use a few more of his good weeks. Cleveland has candidates to step up, but over the last few weeks it is going to take a group effort.
Oscar Mercado got off to a great start, but his on-base percentage has been around .300 over the past month. Jason Kipnis had a good weekend and might be able to keep it going. Carlos Santana has been the team's most consistent hitter this season and needs to keep it going a few more weeks. Maybe Jake Bauers or Yu Chang can help out. With Trevor Bauer gone and Corey Kluber not back, the team can't rely on its starting pitching to carry them. The offense is going to have to pick up the slack.
Oakland Athletics: Take care of business
After the A's finish their series with the Astros, they have close to the most favorable schedule imaginable for a contender. Their most difficult opponent is the Rangers, against whom they have two series left. They also have three games at home against the Royals, who are headed for a 100-loss season. They close the season with six road games, starting with a pair against the Angels before heading to Seattle for four games against a team going nowhere.
Oakland has gotten this far with a solid lineup, decent starting pitching, a good bullpen and a great defense. Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman have been two of the top 10 players in the game this season and make for arguably the best left side of an infield in baseball. If the A's simply play like they have all year long, they shouldn't have a problem beating up on the weaker teams of the AL West plus the Royals. If they do, they'll get another shot at the wild-card game and the chance it provides for a shot at subsequently taking down the Astros or Yankees in a short series.
Tampa Bay Rays: Use the entire pitching staff
In the last year of truly expanded rosters, the Rays have 18 pitchers active -- and they might need them all. The team has one reliable starter in Charlie Morton, a good second-half run from Ryan Yarborough, a group of young pitchers with promise and concerns like Brendan McKay, Trevor Richards, Tyler Glasnow and journeyman Austin Pruitt. It's not an imposing group, but the bullpen can help cover any innings deficiency and keep runs to a minimum.
Nick Anderson, acquired from the Marlins at the deadline with Trevor Richards, has been arguably the best reliever in the game since the beginning of August, posting a 1.17 ERA to go with 31 strikeouts and zero walks in 15⅓ innings. Emilio Pagan, Chaz Roe and Diego Castillo also have been among the best relievers in the AL by FanGraphs WAR since the trade deadline, with Colin Poche also performing well. September call-up Peter Fairbanks, acquired from Texas at the end of July, already looks promising and could get more important opportunities this month. Oliver Drake, Andrew Kittredge and call-ups Hoby Milner and Cole Sulser will all figure into the mix as well.
National League
Arizona Diamondbacks: Go as far as Ketel Marte can take them
Ketel Marte might not win the MVP award with Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich and perhaps Anthony Rendon all having slightly better seasons, but no player has carried the load on a contender like Marte has this season. Entering Wednesday, the Diamondbacks' second baseman/outfielder was fifth in baseball with 6.9 fWAR. The next highest current Diamondback (with Zack Greinke in Houston) was Eduardo Escobar at 3.7 fWAR, which ranked 58th. After Escobar, Nick Ahmed's 2.7 WAR ranked 116th in the game.
Marte's star turn has nearly single-handedly kept Arizona alive this season, and after a great first half, he has been even better in the second with over 3.0 fWAR in just two months. If the Diamondbacks are going to make the playoffs, they are going to need everyone to contribute, but Marte cannot slow down.
Chicago Cubs: Ride the starting pitching
The team looks to be without Javier Baez the rest of the way, and Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo appear at least a little physically compromised of late. Not being at full strength is always less than ideal. Having a team's three best players all dinged up or out borders on a disaster. Nicholas Castellanos can only do so much. The bullpen is still a mess with Craig Kimbrel now missing in action. That leaves much of the burden on the team's rotation.
The good news for the Cubs is that they have a bunch of very good pitchers. Yu Darvish came on strong in August and, even after missing a start, looked good over the weekend. Jose Quintana has been very good in the second half with a 3.68 FIP and 4.10 ERA (both numbers rose a bit after Quintana got shelled by the Padres Tuesday night). Kyle Hendricks has had two rough outings, but has given up two runs or fewer in his other nine second-half starts. Veteran lefties Jon Lester and Cole Hamels have struggled, but they are capable of putting together a few good starts in a row. With an ailing offense and an ugly bullpen, the Cubs need their starters to finish the season strong if they want to stay in the playoff chase.
Milwaukee Brewers: Hit dingers
After taking five of seven from the Cubs over the past few weeks, the Brewers have closed the gap to a reasonable striking distance, but they will need a great stretch to close the season if they want to get back into the playoffs. To do so, they are going to need their offense to go wild. Fortunately, the schedule shapes up nicely. After a three-game series against St. Louis this weekend, the Brewers host the Padres and Pirates in Miller Park. Both of those teams rank in the bottom half of the league when it comes to giving up homers on the road, and the Brewers love to hit at home. The team then closes the season at homer-happy Cincinnati followed by the thin air of Coors.
The Brewers could use a return to health from Mike Moustakas and Keston Hiura to complete the lineup, but with Christian Yelich out with a fractured kneecap, Eric Thames, Ryan Braun and Yasmani Grandal are going to need to hit the Brewers into the postseason with big finishes to September. Their final 13 games come in three of the five most favorable parks for homers and they have the players who can take advantage.
New York Mets: Use the schedule
When the Mets went on their big run to get back into contention, they mostly won against lesser teams like the Marlins, Pirates, White Sox and Padres. They've fallen back a bit due to struggles against the Braves and a sweep against the Cubs. The schedule going forward isn't easy, but it does present them with some opportunities. Their series against the Dodgers comes right after Los Angeles clinched the NL West so the club won't be going full-bore when it visits New York.
After the Dodgers, the Mets play the Rockies, Reds and Marlins and should be favored to win in nearly every game. The team closes with a three-game series against the Braves at home. Those final games look tough on paper, but the Braves will have clinched the division by then and will likely be locked into their playoff spot already unless they make a run at the Dodgers for best record in the NL.
The Mets don't have great odds at sneaking into the postseason, but the schedule presents them with a chance at a run just like the one they had coming out of the All-Star Break, when they went 20-6.
Philadelphia Phillies: Sweep the Nationals
The outlook isn't great for the Phillies. The team has been beset by injuries to the lineup, the rotation and the bullpen. Even with Bryce Harper back after a tough hit by pitch, it's difficult to see him at full strength the rest of the way. The schedule does the team no favors with every team they face having a better record than the Phillies until the final three-game series against the Marlins.
For the Phillies to make the playoffs, they have one big opportunity in a five-game set against the Nationals in Washington. If they win those games and get ahead of the Nationals, they can close out the Marlins to end the season with a decent chance at the playoffs. They would still need to stay ahead of all but one of the Mets, Diamondbacks, Brewers and Cubs, but an eight-game win streak to close the season and knocking out the wild-card leader just might do it. The odds are against it, but that's their best path to October baseball.
Washington Nationals: Stay the course
The Nationals just need to not fall apart and they'll be in the playoffs. They lost whatever shot at the NL East they had in losing three of four to the Braves, but they still sit comfortably ahead in the wild-card race. Their schedule isn't the easiest going forward with series against the Braves, Cardinals, Phillies and Indians along with three games against the Marlins, but going .500 the rest of the way should be plenty given their current cushion.