PHILADELPHIA -- The Mets now have four weeks to climb over four teams and somehow get a fingerhold on the second wild card in the National League. After six straight losses to the Braves and Cubs recently, the Mets' chances for pulling off one of the most remarkable comebacks we've seen and reaching the postseason stand at about 16% heading into Sunday night's matchup with the Phillies (7 p.m. ET, ESPN), according to FanGraphs. A little better than one shot in seven.
And yet that's about twice as high as the Mets' playoff odds were on the day they closed on the deal for Marcus Stroman in July: Per FanGraphs, their chances for a wild-card berth then were at 7.2%, and to win the NL East, 0.6%.
Front offices around baseball don't always accept those numbers at face value, nor should they, because sometimes the impossible does happen. The 1951 Giants, 1978 Yankees and 2011 Cardinals could testify to that. But in this era of analytics, seasoned evaluators generally respect the odds because they know what every level-headed gambler knows -- that trying to defy overwhelming statistical logic will inevitably cost you in a big way.
The Mets spent too much on a lopsided trade for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz last winter, haven't gotten an at-bat of return on an expensive signing for Jed Lowrie, and very soon, the next layer of charges for the Mets' expensive Hail Mary, win-now gambit will become apparent.
To laud the Mets for their decision to go for it at the deadline and fail to cash in on the trade value of Diaz, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler is like praising a football coach for refusing to punt on fourth-and-35. Aggressive, for sure; everybody loves to be aggressive. And the Mets' burst of wins in August excited the fans and boosted attendance.
But many rival evaluators believe that the team squandered value it will need next year and in the years beyond, having missed an exceptional trade-deadline opportunity to add cheaper, younger players -- and in order to remain viable, the Mets will soon have a desperate need for cheaper, younger pitching.
The financial construction of the roster is about to change dramatically. Jacob deGrom will get a raise of more than 300%, to $25 million. Syndergaard's salary will likely climb over $10 million through arbitration; the same is true for Stroman's. Steven Matz will probably make something in the $6 million to $8 million range.
The only way that the Mets could keep the current rotation intact, including impending free agent Wheeler, is to present a qualifying offer of $18 million to Wheeler or work out an extension. (Talks about a new deal earlier this season were brief.) That would mean that they would have to commit about $75 million to their rotation alone.
And this franchise, which does not historically rank among the highest spenders, already owes big dollars to Yoenis Cespedes, Cano, Jeurys Familia and others. Only the Yankees, Red Sox and Cardinals have more dollars committed to their 2020 team than the Mets do -- and that's without accounting for some of the arbitration raises and other needs that have to be filled.
If general manager Brodie Van Wagenen doesn't sign Wheeler to an extension and chooses to not give him a qualifying offer, Wheeler will walk away and the Mets will get nothing in return. Nothing, for one of the starting pitchers most coveted by other clubs before the July 31 trade deadline. The Astros, Rays, Yankees and perhaps others possessed serious interest in the right-hander.
Five weeks ago, Diaz had high trade value in the eyes of rival evaluators -- maybe not as high as it was last winter when he was dealt to the Mets, but given the needs of the contenders, executives in other front offices believe there could have been a good value deal to grab.
Now? "You can't get anything for him now," one NL evaluator said. Diaz's struggles have persisted, with a 6.23 ERA in August, and his salary will jump about 1,400% this winter through arbitration.
Part of the market attraction of Syndergaard was that a contender could acquire him for this year and perhaps two more pennant chases beyond that. Rival execs say that after initially sending signals they were ready to move Syndergaard, the Mets' asking price on the right-hander extended far beyond common sense.
"Looking back on it," one evaluator said, "I don't know if there was a deal they would've taken."
Either way, Syndergaard has lost some trade value because this winter, he'll step one more rung up the arbitration ladder, and move another year closer to free agency.
Stroman is eligible for free agency after next season, and because of that leverage, the Mets will have to pay him very well to buy out his opportunity to reach the open market. (Stroman said in conversation Saturday that he's looking forward to the time when his future is settled with a long-term deal.)
Syndergaard and Matz could be free agents after 2021. As of now, this is what the Mets have lined up for the 2022 rotation: A 33-year-old deGrom. And four open spots, with a thinned-out farm system underneath.
This is Keith Law's current assessment of the team's player development. "Van Wagenen has gutted what would absolutely have been a top-10 system, maybe even a top-five system, with his trades since his tenure as GM began," he wrote in an email. "It's only because they've continued to draft so well and find value in the international market that they aren't down in the bottom 10 at this point. (Losing Pete Alonso from their prospect list doesn't help either.)
"They had a very strong draft this year, and catcher Francisco Alvarez has emerged as a top prospect, but the depth they had in their system, especially in pitching, has largely vanished through trades, while they've also seen several top prospects stall or regress in A-ball this year. Van Wagenen has done well to leave the amateur staff alone, given their strong track record, but he has mortgaged their post-2020 future with short-term deals that gave away too much upside."
Meanwhile, the Mets' NL East rivals have bright prospects, in 2020 and beyond. The Braves have an extremely strong core of young players. Bryce Harper left and the Nationals continue to win, with Juan Soto and Victor Robles set to complement Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin for at least a few more years. The Phillies' seeming willingness to spend more money than anybody else in the division will probably keep them in play.
Officials with other teams expect that the Mets will have to give up more dollars and prospects to make the necessary improvements for the 2020 team, particularly in the bullpen. "They don't really have a choice," an AL evaluator said.
What about 2021? What about 2022?
"I don't think Brodie's worried about that," one of Van Wagenen's peers said. "He told the owners he would try to win right away, and he's doing what he said he would do."
There will come a day when somebody will have to deal with those inconvenient credit-card talent bills stacking up in the corner. The long-term costs are mounting, and the reckoning could be very ugly.
Notes from around the league
• The most natural, perfect fit of free agency this winter could be a Philadelphia reunion. Cole Hamels, who turns 36 in December, lives in the city in the offseason after his long history with the franchise.
He was a first-round pick of the Phillies in 2002, helped them win a World Series in 2008 and pitched nine years in the big leagues for the team. Hamels, 7-4 with a 3.73 ERA for the Cubs, will hit the open market this fall, and given that he's at the stage in his baseball life when his contracts will be shorter in term, it makes sense that the Phillies -- a team that needs starting pitching -- would work to make this happen.
• Pete Alonso is coming to grips with the idea that he may get only a handful of strikes to swing at in each game, with opposing pitchers, catchers and coaching staffs having apparently determined they just don't want to throw the ball over the plate to the young slugger. According to FanGraphs, Alonso is seeing the lowest percentage of pitches in the strike zone:
1. Alonso 35.5%
2. Bryce Harper 36.4%
3. Javier Baez 36.7%
4. Christian Yelich 36.9%
5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 37.3%
6. Josh Bell 37.7%
"It's respect," Alonso said. "As a rookie, it's kind of crazy to see my name on that list."
• A rival longtime executive noted the change that the Phillies made at hitting coach, firing John Mallee and replacing him with former Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel. "The worst job in baseball right now has to be a hitting coach," he said, before explaining his perspective. In 2019, many players use personal hitting gurus away from the field, and because the team hitting coach is not present for that work, he possesses mostly surface-level knowledge of the daily work that the hitter is putting in, or what the guru is trying to do with the hitter's swing.
Some players effectively ignore the words of the team hitting coach, choosing to rely on their personal hitting coach. But once the games start, the guru is not in the dugout; the team hitting coach is.
If the player does well, then the guru's work is cited. And who often gets blamed for the failure? The coach on site -- the team hitting coach.
"If I were a [team] hitting coach, I think I'd want it stipulated when a player is working with his own guy," the exec said. "I'd want it in writing that, 'These are the players who are not listening to me, and this is the list of players who are.' So that your work is fairly judged."
• Home-field advantage probably matters less in baseball than it does in other major sports, but this year, it might carry more meaning than in most years. The three teams vying for the best overall record -- and for home-field advantage throughout the postseason -- have been completely dominant this year when playing in more familiar surroundings. The Dodgers are 52-18 in home games in 2019; the Astros 51-17; the Yankees 50-21.
• The story told many times about Phil Regan's nickname -- The Vulture -- is that it was bestowed by Sandy Koufax. As in every walk of life, baseball tales tend to be warped by changing memories, extrapolation and confusion.
Regan, the Mets' 82-year-old pitching coach, was asked here on Saturday: Is it accurate that Koufax gave him his nickname?
"Yes," he said, before going on to recount the series of events leading up to that moment.
On July 27, 1966, Koufax pitched 11 innings against the Phillies, allowing one run and striking out 16, and after he departed, Regan pitched the 12th inning -- and got credit for the win when the Dodgers scored in the bottom of the 12th. Five days later, Koufax pitched seven strong innings against the Pirates, but again, to little support; Regan took over with the score tied 1-1. The Dodgers scored four runs in the top of the ninth inning, and Regan was credited with the win -- the 10th of the 14 he compiled that year, all in relief.
Koufax saw Regan after the game and joked, "Regan, you're a real vulture."
A writer overheard it, Regan recalled, and it stuck.
Baseball Tonight podcast
Friday: Karl Ravech discusses the interesting prediction made by Astros exec Jeff Luhnow and the weeklong collapse of the Mets; Jessica Mendoza on what's gone wrong for the Mets, the work of coaches Phil Regan and Charlie Manuel, and what's next for the Dodgers' bullpen; and Rena Wang has Bleacher Tweets.
Thursday: Prince Fielder discusses the explosion of home runs and the home run celebrations -- and how his Brewers once angered the baseball world with their own home run celebration; Sarah Langs has The Numbers Game; Keith Law discusses what the Dodgers should do about struggling closer Kenley Jansen.
Wednesday: Chris Singleton talks about the home run records, Pete Alonso's impact on the Mets and the most likely landing spots for Gerrit Cole; Paul Hembekides has some perspective on the impact of the Dodgers' Will Smith; Jesse Rogers discusses Yu Darvish's turnaround for the Cubs.
Tuesday: Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos discusses the success of Josh Donaldson and the acquisition of Billy Hamilton; David Schoenfield breaks down the AL Cy Young Award race; Sarah Langs and The Numbers Game.
Monday: Clayton Kershaw talks about catcher Will Smith and the brutal Players Weekend uniforms; Tim Kurkjian discusses how the retirement of Sandy Koufax would've been treated in this era, in light of the reaction to Andrew Luck; Todd Radom's cap talk and quiz.