With the trade deadline behind us, we can zero in on the playoff races without the usual August transactional distractions. Well, mostly. It appears that the waiver wire will generate more action than we're accustomed to. Still, for the most part, from here on out, it's all about the battle to win the 2019 World Series.
Alas, not every team is part of that race. No one has been mathematically eliminated yet. (Double-checking ... yep, technically the Tigers are still in it.) But that doesn't mean that every team can't have goals and objectives for the rest of the regular season.
That's the theme for August's Stock Watch: What is the biggest remaining regular-season to-do item for every team?
As usual, the win forecasts are based on the power ratings from my projection and evaluation system (MLBPET). Along with the playoff probabilities you see below, the win forecasts are generated by 10,000 simulations of the remaining MLB schedule. Teams are grouped into tiers denoting 2019's hierarchy of contention and are listed in order of their win forecasts.
It's all about October
WIN FORECAST: 104.6 | CHANGE FROM JULY: +4.3
DIVISION%: 99.0 | PLAYOFF%: 99.9
PENNANT%: 33.2 | TITLE%: 18.3
With an eight-game edge over Oakland through Sunday, Houston hasn't quite put the AL West race on ice. Coincidentally, the Astros and A's have eight games remaining against each other, so it's not too late for a little late drama. Still, Houston's roster is so loaded now -- and promises to be even more so as Brad Peacock, Ryan Pressly and Josh James return to health -- that it's hard to fathom the Astros blowing such a big lead.
They've won 16 of 21 games with a run differential during that span that translates to 124 wins over 162 games. Barring a shocking collapse, the Astros' biggest remaining items are to get Zack Greinke comfortable in his new surroundings, get some rest for their front-line players and get the bullpen aligned for what promises to be an October to remember.
WIN FORECAST: 104.4 | CHANGE FROM JULY: +0.9
DIVISION%: 100.0 | PLAYOFF%: 100.0
PENNANT%: 47.8 | TITLE%: 28.0
With a 17-game bulge, the Dodgers could suffer through a 2017-like swoon -- L.A. inexplicably dropped 16 of 17 late in the season -- and still cruise home with their seventh straight NL West title. The last time the Dodgers didn't finish in first place, Jamie Moyer was an active player, and Mike Trout was a rookie.
And yet ... L.A. still hasn't won a World Series since 1988. That is the only measure of success for the Dodgers, and that will be the case each season until they end that drought. While we can be all but sure that the road to the NL pennant will once again go through Dodger Stadium, the most important thing Dave Roberts' club could accomplish over the next two months is to piece together a string of dominant bullpen performances. Unless that happens, everyone will remain concerned that the mighty Dodgers have a potentially fatal Achilles' heel.
WIN FORECAST: 102.4 | CHANGE FROM JULY: +1.4
DIVISION%: 94.4 | PLAYOFF%: 99.4
PENNANT%: 24.6 | TITLE%: 12.5
Health! Like the Astros, the Yankees have a bit of work to do to wrap up the AL East because while the Red Sox appear to be in a free fall, the Rays continue to play solid baseball. Everyone has understandably heaped praise on Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman for a team that has navigated so many significant injuries. Now the main task is to exterminate the injury bug and establish that a healthy Yankee squad can play as well as the MASH squad that has been such a joy to watch all season.
Battling for position
WIN FORECAST: 101.2 | CHANGE FROM JULY: +1.2
DIVISION%: 89.7 | PLAYOFF%: 98.9
PENNANT%: 23.0 | TITLE%: 11.5
With a win forecast still headed for triple digits -- a level the Twins haven't achieved since the Zoilo Versalles-led 1965 team -- Minnesota is in the previous tier of teams but with one difference: The Twins are in a toe-to-toe fight for their division with the Indians, perhaps baseball's hottest club. With Byron Buxton, Sam Dyson and Michael Pineda all hitting the injured list over the weekend, once again the Twins' depth is about to be tested. It would be nice to be able to focus on a chase for the team home run record. But Minnesota's top priority is to fend off Cleveland because, after all this, how much of a letdown would it be for the Twins to end up in the wild-card game?
WIN FORECAST: 94.5 | CHANGE FROM JULY: +0.6
DIVISION%: 5.6 | PLAYOFF%: 78.7
PENNANT%: 7.9 | TITLE%: 3.9
The Rays, Indians and Athletics are locked in a tight battle for the two wild-card slots in the AL, and all three clubs have been playing good baseball. The Rays righted their ship just in time, and suddenly, after smacking down the Red Sox last week at Fenway Park, they again resemble the early-season front-runners they were in the AL East.
For any of this to mean something, the Rays need to get Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow back in the rotation. Neither is likely to return before September, so Tampa Bay will be pushing its luck to get their workloads and effectiveness ramped up in time for the postseason. Charlie Morton is a terrific fallback for a postseason No. 1, but with the Rays likely needing to burn him in the AL wild-card game, having their other top starters ready to go for the first two games of a likely showdown with Houston is essential.
WIN FORECAST: 94.2 | CHANGE FROM JULY: +4.0
DIVISION%: 10.3 | PLAYOFF%: 69.3
PENNANT%: 6.7 | TITLE%: 2.9
Cleveland's 38-16 mark since the end of May is easily the best record in baseball. Yet the range of possible outcomes for the Indians' season remains wide. The Indians could catch and pass the Twins for their fourth straight AL Central. They could fall short in that quest and end up on the outside of the wild-card chase, behind Tampa Bay and Oakland. For this story to have a happy ending, Cleveland needs Corey Kluber to return in vintage Klu-bot form and plug the hole opened with the trade of Trevor Bauer, all while hoping Zach Plesac (5.23 FIP) doesn't turn into a pumpkin.
WIN FORECAST: 93.0 | CHANGE FROM JULY: -0.6
DIVISION%: 90.5 | PLAYOFF%: 98.3
PENNANT%: 17.5 | TITLE%: 7.1
With rough outings in his first two appearances for the Braves, Shane Greene quickly dispelled any notion that his 1.18 pre-trade ERA was an indicator that he's channeling a peak-level Craig Kimbrel. Whether or not Greene is used as an Eckersley-style closer, he's a key part of Brian Snitker's quest to shape an October-quality bullpen. If Greene does seize an end-of-game role, it will help the entire Atlanta relief staff come into focus. The bullpen remains the big question of a team on the verge of greatness.
WIN FORECAST: 92.3 | CHANGE FROM JULY: +3.2
DIVISION%: 1.0 | PLAYOFF%: 50.5
PENNANT%: 4.4 | TITLE%: 1.9
Once again, the A's appear to be successfully threading the needle with their rotation, getting mostly competent outings from a group of castoffs. It's kind of miraculous. Oakland faces a fierce battle to return to the wild-card game. But what happens if it gets there? It would be nice if one of those aforementioned starters -- Tanner Roark, Chris Bassitt, Mike Fiers -- could emerge as a viable starter for the coin-flip contest. Because, frankly, the prospect of the A's trying to opener their way through another wild-card game doesn't seem too tantalizing.
9. Chicago Cubs
WIN FORECAST: 89.0 | CHANGE FROM JULY: +1.4
DIVISION%: 76.2 | PLAYOFF%: 89.9
PENNANT%: 18.1 | TITLE%: 8.1
The Cubs need to get their regulars in good working order in time for the roster to coalesce for a challenging October. That begins with Ben Zobrist, who just started a minor league rehab assignment and is a few weeks from a return to the majors. Chicago also has to navigate the next month or so around the hamstring injury suffered by Willson Contreras on Sunday. Will the Cubs pick up a catcher? Might that catcher be the recently released Jonathan Lucroy? If the Cubs reach the playoffs again, it would be a huge boost if Brandon Morrow can return to action and establish himself as the lights-out eighth-inning guy he was for the Dodgers in front of Kenley Jansen in 2017.
One playoff game is better than none
10. Boston Red Sox
WIN FORECAST: 85.4 | CHANGE FROM JULY: -3.5
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 2.7
PENNANT%: 0.1 | TITLE%: 0.0
Boston's current win forecast is a stunner. While it still marks the BoSox as a better club than two-thirds of the teams in the majors, in the context of this year's AL playoff race, it means exactly diddly-poo. As you no doubt have noticed, six of the nine teams ahead of the Red Sox are also in the junior circuit, and there is a sizable gap between Boston and No. 8 Oakland. Two weeks ago, it looked like Boston had saved its season. Now, the outlook is mathematically bleak. This outlook won't change unless Boston's big-name, high-dollar starting rotation starts to produce like a big-name, high-dollar starting rotation.
WIN FORECAST: 85.1 | CHANGE FROM JULY: +0.2
DIVISION%: 6.5 | PLAYOFF%: 55.4
PENNANT%: 4.2 | TITLE%: 1.2
Let's assume that Washington's deadline additions to the bullpen of Daniel Hudson, Roenis Elias and Hunter Strickland have added enough quality depth in front of Sean Doolittle to set up the Nationals for a playoff run. That's not a given, but you have to give GM Mike Rizzo credit for the bulk acquisitions.
That leaves this major to-do item: Getting Max Scherzer as close to 100% as possible. There's no other pitcher you'd want for the coin-flip game, first of all. And if Scherzer can pitch the Nats through that contest and into an NLDS showdown with the Dodgers, Washington can still throw Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin in the first two games at Dodger Stadium and come back with Scherzer at home for a Game 3. None of this would guarantee anything against the powerful Dodgers, but the outlook is a lot more promising with a fully functioning Scherzer fronting Dave Martinez's October rotation.
WIN FORECAST: 84.6 | CHANGE FROM JULY: +4.1
DIVISION%: 18.4 | PLAYOFF%: 49.1
PENNANT%: 4.5 | TITLE%: 1.8
St. Louis needs its underperforming offense to find some measure of consistency the rest of the season. It's hard to even see what the offense really is. The Cardinals aren't elite in power categories, drawing walks or making contact. They steal a good number of bases. But it hasn't been a cohesive attack. The recent rise of Paul Goldschmidt will certainly help, but recently returned cogs Marcell Ozuna and Matt Carpenter have to join the party. Simply put, the Cardinals should be better than they are.
WIN FORECAST: 83.6 | CHANGE FROM JULY: -0.9
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 41.7
PENNANT%: 4.2 | TITLE%: 1.5
As the Diamondbacks straddle the fence between rebuilding and pushing for a wild-card slot, the immediate task is to zero in on a starting rotation that just lost its ace in Zack Greinke. Right now, that fivesome looks like it will be Robbie Ray, Merrill Kelly and Alex Young joined by new acquisitions Zac Gallen and Mike Leake. Given the tepid nature of the wild-card race, that's not a bad group.
But if Arizona falls out of the chase, 2020-related questions have to be addressed. Can the Diamondbacks count on Taijuan Walker going forward? Can Luke Weaver make it back before the end of the season? Is Archie Bradley officially a permanent relief pitcher? If not, then perhaps you want to give him another shot to start this season, even if the previous attempt didn't go very well.
WIN FORECAST: 82.4 | CHANGE FROM JULY: -1.2
DIVISION%: 1.8 | PLAYOFF%: 23.4
PENNANT%: 1.2 | TITLE%: 0.4
The Phillies are still hanging in there, but a 4-5 homestand that ended Sunday with a loss to the White Sox doesn't inspire much confidence. And say what you will about the Yankees, but Philadelphia has been as beset by injuries all season as any other team in baseball. The front office's decision to add only to the margins of the roster makes sense because if this year's Phils are going to go anywhere, they will need elite performances from the top of the roster. That puts the onus on Aaron Nola, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins to carry an inconsistent team into the playoffs.
15. Texas Rangers
WIN FORECAST: 81.7 | CHANGE FROM JULY: -1.6
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.6
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Nomar Mazara is in his fourth big league season and Rougned Odor his sixth, yet both foundation pieces for Texas remain as enigmatic as ever. Those two remain at the center of Texas' plans, even if the eventual answer is that one or both need a change of scenery. Although they've been too inconsistent for too long to convince anybody of anything over the next two months, Mazara and Odor remain the most likely candidates to propel the Rangers on a surprise postseason push down the stretch.
16. New York Mets
WIN FORECAST: 81.0 | CHANGE FROM JULY: +5.9
DIVISION%: 1.1 | PLAYOFF%: 16.2
PENNANT%: 0.7 | TITLE%: 0.3
The Mets have been one of baseball's hottest teams since the All-Star break and have shockingly crawled back into wild-card contention behind a lights-out pitching staff. That staff not only remained intact after the trade deadline but also got better on paper with the addition of Marcus Stroman.
But these are the Mets, and there is always a tragic flaw. This season, that appears to be closer Edwin Diaz. Mickey Callaway keeps talking about Diaz's "late arm" as being the culprit in his lack of slider command. Knowing the problem and fixing it are different things, but if Callaway is right about the former, the latter has to happen for New York to make good on its recent surge. New York has 33 of its last 51 games at home, which can't hurt.
WIN FORECAST: 80.4 | CHANGE FROM JULY: -2.1
DIVISION%: 2.9 | PLAYOFF%: 10.8
PENNANT%: 0.8 | TITLE%: 0.2
If these percentages seem low for the Brewers, consider that as the probabilities were generated, Milwaukee had fallen to just one game over .500 and had a run differential of a team at least three games worse than that. The pitching has been woeful, but lately, a flat offense has been just as much of a problem.
When you look at what has become a largely fixed lineup for the usually fluid Brewers roster, you can't help but zero in on the .248/.310/.364 batting line for leadoff hitter Lorenzo Cain. One can't help but wonder how the lineup might produce if Cain could get hot over the next couple of weeks. Time is of the essence because after a weekend sweep by the Cubs, Milwaukee's season is teetering on the brink.
About to pull the plug
18. Cincinnati Reds
WIN FORECAST: 79.5 | CHANGE FROM JULY: -0.4
DIVISION%: 2.4 | PLAYOFF%: 11.2
PENNANT%: 0.9 | TITLE%: 0.3
All season, it has felt like the Reds have been on the verge of something exciting, but their improvements have been undercut by a combined record of 24-35 in games decided by one or two runs. A lot but not all of the blame for that points at franchise closer Raisel Iglesias. He has lost eight games, blown three saves and posted a negative win probability added. Iglesias is currently in a streak of five straight scoreless outings, during which he has allowed just a .235 OPS. Reestablishing Iglesias as the fulcrum of the bullpen will help Cincinnati's decision-making as it tries to align for what figures to be a promising 2020 season. It's also a prerequisite for any kind of miracle finish by this season's Reds.
WIN FORECAST: 78.5 | CHANGE FROM JULY: -1.4
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Three games. One hit (a homer). Zero wins. That was the sum total of Mike Trout's postseason career entering 2019, and it looks like it will remain unchanged this season. With it unlikely that the Angels will (or should) promote top prospect Jo Adell for a September look-see, all that keeps L.A. interesting is Trout's run at historic numbers and a third MVP trophy. (Apologies to Shohei Ohtani fans. He is indeed fun to watch.) The current pace: .296/.437/.659 with 52 homers, 125 RBIs, 122 runs and 10.2 WAR. A favorite Trout split: In 18 plate appearances with the bases loaded, Trout has a 1.811 OPS.
WIN FORECAST: 78.1 | CHANGE FROM JULY: +6.3
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 3.3
PENNANT%: 0.1 | TITLE%: 0.0
The Giants' run differential (minus-55) is the third-worst in the National League. Thus despite improved play since the beginning of July, San Francisco's statistical chances to crash the October party remain small. There is no one player you can point to as essential to the Giants' finish. Instead, they'll need a little bit of overachievement up and down the roster to accomplish the overriding goal for the rest of the 2019 campaign: Give Bruce Bochy one more shot at October magic.
Wait 'til next year
21. Colorado Rockies
WIN FORECAST: 75.5 | CHANGE FROM JULY: -5.7
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.5
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
The Rockies' season came apart in rather spectacular fashion and -- barring something miraculous -- it looks like their two-year postseason streak is kaput. This remains a team positioned to make a push in 2020, as can be said of the other teams in this tier. The Rockies got a semi-encouraging outing from Kyle Freeland on Sunday, as last year's Cy Young contender picked up his first win since April 18. Getting Freeland back on track is crucial for Colorado. Freeland was good enough his first two seasons that ordinarily you wouldn't write him off on the basis of a single down season. But this season has been beyond bad for Freeland. If he can recover some momentum, then at least Colorado can head into the offseason believing it has a solid top three in its rotation with Freeland, Jon Gray and German Marquez.
22. San Diego Padres
WIN FORECAST: 73.5 | CHANGE FROM JULY: -3.7
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.2
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
As the Padres build toward a 2020 push into contention, down the stretch, eyes will be squarely on second baseman Luis Urias. Well, observers will continue to slobber over Fernando Tatis Jr. because it's hard to take your eyes off him. But the talented Urias could clear up one of the few positional questions for next year with a strong finish. Just 22, Urias debuted last season, going from a .845 OPS at Triple-A to a .618 mark in the bigs. This season, he was at .998 at Triple-A, but over his first 77 plate appearances with the big club, he's at .463. Helping Urias establish a foothold would make the Padres look that much more dangerous going forward.
WIN FORECAST: 70.8 | CHANGE FROM JULY: -7.6
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Even with Josh Bell 's second-half drop-off, there have been some encouraging developments in the Pirates' season, one that looks like it's going to drop them below their usual level of mediocrity. Kevin Newman has established himself as a viable regular, even if he has to move into a utility role when prospects Oneil Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes and Cole Tucker establish themselves in the infield. Bryan Reynolds has been a revelation in the outfield.
This has all been undermined by a disappointing performance from the rotation, which is typically an area of strength under Clint Hurdle and pitching coach Ray Searage. With Jameson Taillon's season over, the Pirates need to see some momentum out of any and all of Joe Musgrove, Chris Archer and Trevor Williams. Of course, we've been saying that all season.
WIN FORECAST: 70.1 | CHANGE FROM JULY: -5.0
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Here's one of the bigger dilemmas any also-ran faces down the stretch: Should the White Sox call up uber-prospect Luis Robert for a get-his-feet-wet stint to finish the season? He began the season by hitting .453 with a 1.432 OPS in the Carolina League. Move him up! Then he hit .314 with an .880 OPS in the Southern League. Move him up! Well, in 21 games for Triple-A Charlotte, Robert has hit .352 with a 1.041 OPS. Overall, he's at .349/.403/.638 across the three levels, with 23 homers, 71 RBIs, 87 runs, 34 stolen bases and often-electric defense in center field. Move him up!? Obviously, the argument against calling him up now is service time. But if the White Sox plan to contend in 2020, don't they need to know now if Robert's excellence is ready to translate to the American League? If not, no biggie -- he returns to Triple-A to begin 2020. Really, though, what does he have left to learn in the minor leagues? Not much, it looks like.
Waiting for sunnier days
25. Seattle Mariners
WIN FORECAST: 67.6 | CHANGE FROM JULY: -2.3
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
The M's need to hope for J.P. Crawford to continue to improve as an all-around player because on the current Seattle roster, he's surely the best bet to stick around for the long haul. The real question, though, is whether the Mariners can break the record of the 2014 Texas Rangers, who used 64 players in one season. Well, not only can Seattle break the record, but also it's likely to blow by it. Through Sunday, the Mariners had used 61 players -- everyone from Reggie McClain to Zac Grotz to, oh yeah, Ichiro. During his historic first season with the Mariners -- Seattle's 116-win campaign in 2001 -- the team used 35 players. In so many ways, it seems like so long ago. Anyway, this is a record destined to belong to a Jerry Dipoto team.
WIN FORECAST: 65.4 | CHANGE FROM JULY: +2.2
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still become the Rookie of the Year we kind of took for granted that he'd become? His recent hot stretch suggests that it's entirely possible and even likely, especially when he's probably not that far behind the likely leaders, Brandon Lowe of Tampa Bay and Michael Chavis of Boston. Since the All-Star Break, Guerrero has hit .361/.418/.614 with 24 RBIs in 21 games. During that span, he has raised his OPS from .741 to .819, but he dipped to .704 after the games of July 18. In roughly two weeks, Guerrero has tacked on 115 points of OPS. It's what we were all waiting for.
27. Miami Marlins
WIN FORECAST: 62.9 | CHANGE FROM JULY: +0.7
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
Are the Marlins going to stop playing 30-somethings? We're lumping Starlin Castro in here, though he's still 29. This season, Miami has given 1,860 plate appearances to players at least as old as Castro, with Neil Walker, Martin Prado and Curtis Granderson standing out on the ledger. Together, they have combined for a .667 OPS and .287 wOBA. On Monday, Miguel Rojas, Granderson, Prado and Bryan Holaday were all in the starting lineup for the second game of the doubleheader in New York. This makes less and less sense with each passing day.
WIN FORECAST: 61.0 | CHANGE FROM JULY: -0.1
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
The Royals need to stick with the plan after jettisoning most of the stopgap veterans they used to fill out the roster for the first half of the season. Of particular interest is whether they have something in perennial prospect Bubba Starling, who finally broke into the majors at the age of 26 (he turned 27 over the weekend), eight years after he was taken with the fifth pick of the 2011 draft. Already, Starling's glove looks as good as advertised, and he can really run. After a nice start at the plate, he has gone into a skid and has 23 strikeouts against just three walks overall. K.C. needs to let this play out because if he can hit at all, Starling flashes the kind of defense that can keep him in the majors for a bit, at least as a fourth outfielder.
WIN FORECAST: 56.8 | CHANGE FROM JULY: +3.1
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
There isn't much to root for here. One thing that might help is if closer Mychal Givens finishes strong and becomes more of a trade asset this winter. Small steps. The Orioles are a "Roadhouse Blues" team: The future is uncertain, and the end is always near.
30. Detroit Tigers
WIN FORECAST: 50.6 | CHANGE FROM JULY: -5.1
DIVISION%: 0.0 | PLAYOFF%: 0.0
PENNANT%: 0.0 | TITLE%: 0.0
The Tigers probably have some excitement starting to brew at the minor league level, but not much, if any of it, has reached Comerica Park just yet. Miguel Cabrera is inching toward a couple of major career milestones, but he won't reach 3,000 hits or 500 homers this season. Really, the main objective for Detroit is to avoid reaching a historic level of awful. The only Tigers squad to finish with a lower winning percentage than this season's .299 mark was the 2003 team that lost 119 games. But the Tigers have actually been gaining on that team with a 10-42 mark (.192) since the beginning of June. It has been a season to remember.