Perhaps I'm biased, but I'd wager that baseball has the most exciting trade deadline of any of the major sports. Although not every deadline is as actually jam-packed with excitement, top stars regularly move in baseball, with names such as Manny Machado, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, David Price, Manny Ramirez and lots more moving to new teams for the homestretch.
Thanks to baseball's ending the August waiver trades, July 31 might be even more exciting than usual, given that the more ironclad early deadline creates more urgency. You can no longer pick up an extra starting pitcher or a fifth outfielder on a second trip to the trade buffet. This matters for contenders because with only six teams definitely out of the playoff hunt, not having a Plan B or even a Plan C might be the difference between October baseball and October golf.
Because Wednesday ought to look a bit like the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange, let's give the likely or possible trade targets stock recommendations, based on the impact they could make on their new teams.
Kirby Yates, San Diego Padres: BUY
There are a surprising number of contenders with disappointing bullpens, with six of the 10 worst bullpens by WAR in 2019 on plausible playoff contenders (Rangers, Pirates, Cubs, Braves, Mets, Phillies). I go back and forth on how high the price will be, given the presence of Ken Giles and (maybe) Will Smith, but Yates is for real. Now, not in the 1.05 ERA-sense, but he has mastered the splitter he learned while trying to make the Angels in 2017. He's a legitimately elite closer, and if you're going to overpay for one of the available closers, Yates is the one to choose.
Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals: HOLD
Merrifield is a real impact player, but by all accounts, the Royals are being quite stingy with the return. If the team really wants three MLB-ready players, it's far too steep a cost. But if it's a bluff, Merrifield would be a huge improvement for teams such as the Reds, Giants and Phillies.
Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays: MODERATE BUY
Homers have exploded, and sinkerballers are watching their pitches golfed into the stands, but Stroman seemingly has stood immune to these developments. He has his career-best HR/9 rate, and though low HR/9 numbers are suspicious, ZiPS thinks it's right on (expected 11.1 HR, actual 10). There's a slight markdown because he won't come cheaply, and he does have a checkered injury history.
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants: MODERATE SELL
He seemed to be an obvious trade for most of the year, but the Giants complicated matters by showing impressive signs of life this month. I always thought the team would have a fairly high ask to move one of their key remaining connections to the team's World Series run.
With the Giants contending, moving them into a sell position would be even harder. The problem is Bumgarner's not really an ace pitcher anymore -- yes, he has a solid playoff record, but that mark came in years when he was a better pitcher. He's a good 2 or 3 starter whom the Giants will likely treat as an ace in any talks.
Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets: STRONG BUY
The Mets haven't officially said they're looking to trade Thor, but if he's available, he's the most fascinating pitcher on the market -- especially since the Nationals have played much better since May and aren't trading Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg. Syndergaard's stats aren't superficially exciting, but the Mets have had one of the worst defenses in baseball in 2019 (third-worst by both Baseball Info Solutions and Ultimate Zone Rating), which hasn't helped his raw numbers.
Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers: MODERATE BUY
His ERA doesn't look a lot better than it did last season on its face, but his peripherals mirror another former Tiger, Max Scherzer, in terms of the nearly 50% bump in strikeout rate from 2018 to 2019. Boyd finally has a secondary pitch, with his slider becoming a real weapon over the past year and a half. My only concern is the price, given the history of the Tigers waiting too long to trade players when they aren't bowled over by offers (notably Michael Fulmer, Nicholas Castellanos and J.D. Martinez).
Nicholas Castellanos, Detroit Tigers: SELL
Castellanos has been blazing hot in July, with an OPS over .900, but he remains a fairly one-dimensional player. He's a poor defensive player wherever you play him, and that's problematic in a year when the majority of the highest-leverage wins -- found in the 11-team NL wild-card race -- are in the league that still has the pitcher hitting.
If you can absorb the defensive hit, Castellanos' bat makes him interesting, but it's just not that exciting when he isn't hitting like it's 2018. In other words, despite the obvious comparison, he's J.D. Martinez-lite, not the full-calorie version.
Castellanos can complain about Comerica Park all he wants, but his road OPS is 40 points lower than his home mark for his career, and the Tigers have had that park configuration the whole time.
Mike Minor, Texas Rangers: HOLD
Minor's a great story, but the Rangers don't have to trade him, and given that his FIP is more than a run worse than his ERA, a team shouldn't pay the ace retail price for Minor. He has also been somewhat fortunate in two areas: Minor has the second-best left-on-base percentage in baseball, and by ZiPS' estimate from his advanced data, he has allowed seven fewer home runs than you'd expect.
Lance Lynn, Texas Rangers: MODERATE BUY
Lance Lynn appears to be one of the Rangers pitchers most hurt by the team's below-average defense (23rd by BIS/UZR average), with an FIP a run better than his actual ERA. At age 32, Lynn's setting a career high for velocity and shaved half of his walk rate from 2018. The Rangers might be more interested in holding Lynn due to his longer contract, but if he becomes available, I think he's a better bet than Minor.
Jonathan Villar, Baltimore Orioles: STRONG SELL
One of the few remaining Orioles with actual trade value, Villar's name has popped up a bit in the rumor mill. It shouldn't. Although Villar's versatile, he doesn't play defense at the more crucial positions all that well, and that 2015-16 offensive peak is further in the rearview mirror. ZiPS estimates Villar as improving only two teams by one-fifth of a win, and neither the Marlins nor Tigers ought to be buyers.