The most likely outcome of the American League wild-card chase is that the defending champion Boston Red Sox, who won 108 games a season ago and currently rank 10th in the majors by run differential, return to the postseason. Likeliness is not the same as certainty, however, and as Boston continues to hover around the .500 mark, we have to start looking at the race as it is, not as it ought to be.
While the derby can still tighten, right now we're basically looking at a cluster of mediocre clubs vying to play on the road in the eventual coin-flip game. The AL has four teams -- the Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays -- that currently carry a 92 percent or better probability of playing into October. (That's based on my current power rankings and latest run of schedule simulations.) If this holds up, the Red Sox and those close to them in the standings will be playing for that final slot.
In recent seasons, teams have been kind of lackluster when it comes to bolstering rosters for what figures to be moderate wild-card contention. The notion that if you get in, anything can happen seems to be passé. Now it's more like, if all you're guaranteed is one game, then why bother?
Let us take an idealized view of this race and assume every team in the running would badly like to snag that precious road wild-card opportunity. Given what we know now, how aggressive should these teams be in adding to their rosters leading up to this year's trade deadline? I've rated each of these teams from 1 to 10 subjectively, and listed that rating with their current win forecast and their chances to win a wild-card slot. The rating should be looked at as if 5 is a neutral score -- a team that does basically nothing before the July 31 deadline. Ratings above that represent buyers, and below that sellers.
Boston Red Sox
Win projection: 87.1 | Wild-card chance: 43.8%
Aggression rating: 9
The Red Sox are clearly in win-now mode, and while the win-loss record is unquestionably disappointing, the underlying metrics suggest this is still a championship-quality squad. As such, the Red Sox could stand pat and would remain the odds-on favorite to win the final AL spot.
Nevertheless, the Red Sox are looking less to set themselves apart from the other teams listed here and more toward making sure they can match up with healthy squads in Houston, New York and Tampa Bay if they should meet in a postseason series. The Red Sox would be a bear of a wild-card opponent, whether or not they host the game, because they can throw Chris Sale out there. But what then?
The Red Sox are forecast (by FanGraphs) to score the most runs per game in the majors over the rest of the season. They are eighth at the moment, which tells you they have a number of players due for positive regression. That much should be obvious.
Rosterwise, there are three clear sore spots: first base, second base and the back of the bullpen. Whether or not the Red Sox can come up with one guy to fill Craig Kimbrel's specific role, Boston needs to add depth in the pen at the very least. However, Baseball-Reference.com has both of those infield positions at below replacement level so far, and with Michael Chavis slumping, the internal options don't look great.
It's not too late for the Red Sox to position themselves for a repeat. But even if money is tight, Dave Dombrowski and his staff have work to do. Maybe that should be especially if money is tight.
Cleveland Indians
Win projection: 84.8 | Wild-card chance: 25.3%
Aggression rating: 2
Frankly, with Jose Ramirez showing only flashes of his MVP-level form of 2018 and the injuries continuing to wreak havoc with the vaunted Cleveland rotation, I'm of a mind to just pull the plug on the whole thing. Find a taker for Trevor Bauer, who should net a nice return as a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Heck, find a taker for Francisco Lindor, which shouldn't be hard. If the Indians reset, and Lindor is going to be around for only a couple more years anyway, then now is the time to maximize the return. I hate the thought of it, but the fact of the matter is that if the Indians were going to invest in winning with this talent core, they should have done so during the past offseason.
Texas Rangers
Win projection: 83.5 | Wild-card chance: 17.6%
Aggression rating: 6
The Rangers' run of solid play has me looking at them moving ever so slightly into buyer territory, though I think they are overachieving. This has nothing to do with Joey Gallo's breakout. When a young player makes conscious adjustments and they work, I tend to believe them.
I'm less sure about Texas' pitching. The Rangers have gotten terrific performances from over-30 starters Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. There's no real harm in holding onto them to see how this plays out, but Minor particularly could fetch a nice trade return. Expect this self-evaluation process to last well into July.
Oakland Athletics
Win projection: 82.3 | Wild-card chance: 13.3%
Aggression rating: 7
The A's won 97 games last year and were able to build momentum throughout their breakout season. This year has been uneven. The core of an Oakland bullpen that was so dominant last season has ranged between solid and good for the most part in 2019. Blake Treinen has fallen off, but if he can regain consistency with his command, he can still anchor that group.
Mostly Oakland needs to build reliever depth and get healthy in order to make a push. Billy Beane and David Forst were able to piece it together with the rotation last year. This year, they need to do the same with the bullpen.
Los Angeles Angels
Win projection: 79.0 | Wild-card chance: 5.1%
Aggression rating: 8
How long can we sing this song? The Angels, with a plus rotation, could hang in the race, but where will the quality innings come from? Can the Angels go with Tyler Skaggs and four openers? Obviously there are a lot of questions about this team.
As the offense has picked up with Shohei Ohtani's return, the Angels are halfway to being a contending team. The bullpen hasn't been bad, either. Once again, the Angels are a couple of competent starting pitchers shy of making a real push. The problem, of course, is that there is likely to be much more of a demand for starters than supply, and Billy Eppler has worked too hard in building up his minor league pipeline to blow it up for a chance at a coin-flip game. As a fan who wants to see a Trout-infused postseason, the Angels continue to perplex.
Chicago White Sox
Win projection: 73.0 | Wild-card chance: 0.4%
Aggression rating: 5
The White Sox have outperformed their run differential to a significant degree, which is one reason their win forecast remains low and their wild-card probability barely has a pulse. My standpoint with this team all season is that if the bottom half of the big league roster could be shored up with better-than-replacement performances, the ceiling of the top players on the roster could be enough for Chicago to sneak into the playoffs.
Those odds would presumably be enhanced with a soft AL Central-heavy schedule, especially if the Indians really do go into sell mode. But while the White Sox have threatened the .500 mark of late, they need to get five or so games above it before Rick Hahn could reasonably look to dip into his prospect pile to add a starting outfielder or bullpen help.
Extra innings
1. At first I was pretty rankled that the Royals held Alex Gordon out of Thursday's game in Omaha, Nebraska, against the Tigers. Gordon had been hit in the back by a pitch the night before at Kansas City and aggravated a nerve. I didn't love Ned Yost's pregame explanation, either. Yost said he wrestled with the decision, knowing what it meant to many of the ticket-buying fans in Omaha. After all, Gordon is a Nebraska native, born and raised in Lincoln, and played for the state's beloved Cornhuskers in college. He was part of the only Nebraska team to win a game in the College World Series. And here we were, witnessing the first MLB game in the state of Nebraska.
Yost apologized to the fans before the game and explained how much he needs Gordon to stay healthy and fresh because of what he means to the Royals' lineup. This, I found frustrating -- Kansas City is making a solid run at the worst record in the game. The wild-card opportunity that applies to the teams laid out earlier don't really exist for this year's Royals. Before I could commit my annoyance into column form, I was convinced that Gordon's malady was bad enough that it might have been somewhat reckless to let him play.
So, fine, we'll give Yost a pass for this one. You don't want to put a player in harm's way when there is a legitimate problem. Still, I want to express the root of my emotional response, with an example:
Earlier this season, rookie Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoya was pilloried for resting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at home in Toronto, on Victoria Day, when more than 26,000 fans were on hand at Rogers Centre. OK, Montoya was just managing his rookie's workload and reportedly didn't realize Victoria Day was such a big deal. Fine.
At some point, though, teams, managers and players need to throw their fans a bone, especially on special event days. It's not something that ought to be mandated by the league or a front office. It should just be a matter of common sense, and the message needs to be circulated throughout the game.
2. I recently read this thought-provoking commentary by former ESPN colleague Arash Markazi, who raises an excellent point: If the Angels don't play in a community that can reasonably be called "Los Angeles," then how can the team associate itself with that city? It's not something I ever thought strongly about one way or the other, not being from that region. But if the Angels move to a new venue, even a new community, then it might be time for MLB to formalize some stipulations on just how teams brand themselves. Some authenticity would be nice.
3. Tommy Pham is one of baseball's more outspoken players, and I have always admired his willingness to speak frankly. However, in one case, he might have wanted to time his barbs a little better. Pham criticized the fairness of the All-Star voting process, saying of himself and his fellow Rays, "We won't get credit, man." He's got a point, too. Players from big markets get more exposure and that can't hurt. Would Yankees first baseman Luke Voit be leading the balloting at first base if he played for another team? Maybe; he's having an excellent season. But playing in New York helps. However, in this case, Pham maybe should have checked the voting: His teammate, Austin Meadows, is among the top three in the balloting among outfielders and would start in the Midsummer Classic if the balloting ended today.