JJ Bleday of Vanderbilt has emerged as one of the top college bats in this draft class with a spring that has him leading all Division I hitters in home runs with 23. He was fourth in my most recent mock draft, going to the Marlins. I've heard him connected with the Tigers at 5 as well and certainly think he'll go inside of the top 10. He has power and it looks as if any contact he makes will be hard, but there's a lot of disagreement among scouts about whether the large hitch in his swing reduces his future hit tool.
Bleday certainly has power, and it's not just from his overall size -- he's listed as 6-foot-3, 205 pounds, although I feel as if he might weigh more than that now -- but from exceptionally strong hands, which are apparent by how easily he controls the barrel of the bat. That's a good thing given his hitch, a quick but defined downward move before he really starts to get the bat head moving toward the zone. When he does the latter, though, his path is direct and his swing is surprisingly compact as a result. If the hitch is a problem in the long run, I think it'll be about timing, that the additional noise will make him late as he faces better pitching. I could also be convinced that he'll be like Hunter Pence, another incredibly strong hitter who had an even more pronounced hitch and, 228 homers and 30 WAR later, is still in the majors at age 36.
Bleday is a good athlete for his size, running about average now but likely to end up a 45 or 40 runner in a few years. He has a plus arm and should be fine in right field. His power is more than enough to profile there and he could be a high-strikeout, high-power guy even with his current swing. I'm not willing to rule out the possibility that the hitch is a red herring, and that Bleday is still at least a future average bat.
* Louisville first baseman Logan Wyatt should be a mid-second-round to early third-round pick as he projects to hit but doesn't have enough present power (even with his size) and hasn't hit well enough this year to move into the top tiers of college bats. Wyatt has a simple, quiet approach, with a very direct path to the ball, although he lacks much loft in his finish. He's 6-4, 230, and looks as if he should mash, but his swing is close to flat so he just hits line drives and ground balls. Wyatt is at .306/.476/.506, with 55 walks, but with his swing and his eye he should be hitting for more average, especially with the metal bat. If you're that good of a hitter right now, shouldn't you have better than a .338 BABIP in college ball?
* Vandy center fielder Pat DeMarco could sneak into the third round, and didn't hurt himself with a two-hit, two-walk night Tuesday, although velocity in the zone blew him up in his one other plate appearance. You have to buy into him as a center fielder to see him in the top three rounds, though, and I'm not sure I do -- and I don't think he has the on-base skills to be a regular there even if he stays in center.
* Not to bury the lede, but the best prospects in Tuesday's Louisville-Vanderbilt game were underclassmen, notably Austin Martin, the Vandy third baseman who turned in good play after good play on defense while also showing off his hit tool and eye at the plate. Martin showed everything you'd want in a third baseman across just a few innings -- charging on a bunt and another ground ball in front of him, and throwing accurately and confidently to first even when he had to thread the needle between the fielder and the runner. His hands are good, his arm is strong, and he comes in on ground balls as if he knows he's going to make the play. He had a couple of hard-hit balls the other way, running plus to second on a double to the right-center gap, and showing he could catch up to 95 mph on a single later in the game. He seems as if he'll be solidly in the first-round mix next year.
* Vanderbilt closed the game with sophomore Tyler Brown, who has struck out 36 percent of the batters he has faced this season out of the Commodores' bullpen. Brown was 92-93 mph, with a plus slider at 80-83 that had some curveball shape at the lower end, and he missed bats with both pitches. Vandy has a couple of returning starters for 2020, but I'd like to see the 6-4 Brown get a shot in the rotation to see if he can hold this velocity and still get swing-and-misses on his fastball two or three times through the order.
* Back to this year's draft, Louisville closer Michael McAvene was 92-96 mph Tuesday, elevating with confidence, but his secondary stuff -- a 77-81 mph slurve and an 81-82 mph changeup -- was below average, and coupled with fringy command, he couldn't miss enough bats to keep the score tied, eventually giving up a bases-loaded double to Vandy second baseman Harrison Ray (who showed good hand speed and smoked a 95 mph fastball but hasn't hit well enough this year to get into the top five rounds). I could see McAvene, who has struck out 36 percent of the batters he has faced, going in the range of the fourth to sixth rounds as a reliever with size and arm strength but who needs development help in multiple areas.
* A week ago, I saw Jack Kochanowicz, a prep right-hander on the Main Line outside Philadelphia, at Harriton High School. The Virginia commit was just fair that day, mostly 90-93 mph with good shape to his curveball but below-average command and control, with late pronation in his delivery that gives him a high elbow in back. He'd be a third- or fourth-round talent as a projectable high school arm with a good body, although the UVA commitment might mean he expects more than slot money in the third.