The Cleveland Indians probably merited more scrutiny than they received for an uneventful Hot Stove season. That's not to say they should have been ripped mercilessly, but when things don't add up on the surface, it's always worth digging deeper.
Here's what we know: The Indians have not won a World Series since 1948, a 71-year title drought that is the longest in the majors. They are working on a string of three straight division titles and six straight winning seasons. And while they came tantalizingly close in 2016, none of those campaigns has ended with a drought-snapping championship.
Here's more of what we know: The American League has devolved into a hellscape of haves and have-nots, an inequality of competitiveness so stark that you almost expect Bernie Sanders to campaign on the issue. The Indians have been one of the having-est of the haves by winning 284 games over the past three seasons, the third-highest total in the AL. But with the loaded Astros, Yankees and Red Sox all vying for the same pennant flag, the competition on the league's top tier has never been more fierce.
And finally: The Indians' bWAR leaders since the over-.500 streak started in 2013 are Corey Kluber (33.6), Francisco Lindor (24.0), Jose Ramirez (22.1), Carlos Carrasco (19.5), Michael Brantley (18.6), Jason Kipnis (16.6), Trevor Bauer (16.3) and Carlos Santana (15.5). All of those players except for Brantley are on this year's roster. Brantley, while the Indians were so quiet, signed with the Astros.
Cleveland entered this season as heavy favorites to repeat in the AL Central. Perhaps armed with those same projections, rather than bolster a bullpen that ranked 22nd in bWAR last season, or an outfield group that ranked 23rd, the Indians took a "measured approach." They traded away starting catcher Yan Gomes, and dealt underperforming slugger Yandy Diaz to Tampa Bay for Jake Bauers. They re-acquired Santana in the Diaz/Bauers deal, sending away Edwin Encarnacion. They traded Yonder Alonso to the White Sox for a low-level prospect.
That was largely it on the acquisition front for Cleveland. The Indians, with their window of contention wide open, entered the 2019 season with a payroll $15 million less than the one they opened the 2018 season with, according to Cot's Contracts.
The formula has changed since the Indians' 2016-17 peak seasons, when a powerhouse bullpen set them apart from even the other top clubs in the majors and seemed to make them such a prime candidate to emerge from the postseason melee. Andrew Miller, Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw are all gone now, so this year's club was built on a foundation of two top-20 position players (Lindor and Ramirez) and the game's top rotation. The roster otherwise seemed so rickety that if any or all of Lindor, Ramirez or the starters faltered, Cleveland would be in trouble.
WHY BRING ALL THIS UP NOW?
All of this is the backdrop of the news that Kluber will miss at least the next few weeks because of a non-displaced fracture of his pitching arm, an injury suffered when he was struck by a line drive during his last outing. The news puts the Indians squarely at a crossroads.
Kluber joins starter Mike Clevinger on the injured list, further weakening the Indians' best unit. That unit hadn't really been lighting the world on fire as it is. Kluber has looked diminished and Carrasco hasn't been as lights-out as normal. The Indians still rank ninth in rotation bWAR, mostly thanks to Bauer and Shane Bieber, but the starters as a group haven't carried the team. That may change if Bauer, Bieber and Carrasco start rolling at the same time, but Clevinger may be out until the All-Star break and with Kluber on the shelf, the Indians are scrambling to cover innings.
Meanwhile, the Indians' position group has been nothing short of awful, ranking 26th in bWAR. Ramirez has struggled to an inexplicable degree, while Lindor's season didn't begin until April 20 because of calf and ankle problems. He's off to a slow start since returning.
In other words: The very things about this year's Indians that you took for granted, the things that you figured had to go just right, haven't really gone right at all. Lindor will surely ramp up soon but it's a mystery whether the same will happen with Ramirez. So even in the weak AL Central, can a top-heavy team compete with much of its top ostensibly missing? The thing is, the Indians have a winning record thus far, 16-13, and a positive run differential, even though they've actually gone just 4-7 within the division. The Minnesota Twins have jumped to a fast start but the Indians are only three games back.
So what happens now? Do the Indians try to tread water and hope their stars are healthy and productive? What if it doesn't happen at all?
THE DILEMMA
The problem is that if the Indians' self-examination tells them that they won't win this season, then they have hard choices to make. Bauer has one season of arbitration left after this one. Kluber can be a free agent, pending a club option. Lindor has just two more seasons before free agency, and during a spring when young stars were inking extensions left and right, Cleveland owner Paul Dolan said, "We love him and we're looking forward to watching him play for the next several years. What happens after that, I don't know."
See, the Indians are still positioned to win the AL Central, unless the Twins continue to sock ball after ball into orbit. They are also positioned to crumble to pieces, should any of the teetering parts of their roster fail to right themselves. This is the dilemma the Indians created for themselves with their inactive offseason. Maybe there was no choice -- there's no question it's been devastating how little Cleveland's recent on-field success has translated to success at the turnstiles. In any event, the Indians' position is precarious.
If the Indians do decide to pivot, then everything is on the table.
OPTION NO. 1: HIT RESET
When we say everything is on the table, this includes dealing Bauer, as was so often rumored over the winter. This also includes the possibility of dealing Lindor, who is the rare player who -- even in this time of teams hugging their own prospects close -- could command an enormous haul.
You wouldn't need to empty the bag. Ramirez is playing under an extension that keeps him under team control through the 2022 season. Carrasco signed an extension of his own over the winter that could keep him around until 2023. Of course, both deals are team friendly and could command nice returns in the trade market.
Let's face it: If Cleveland were to make the bold and hugely unpopular decision to deal Lindor, there would be no reason to be precious in hanging onto anybody else.
OPTION NO. 2: START APPLYING SOME BANDAGES
The aforementioned kind of comprehensive teardown isn't the only way to go. It's not too late to exhibit the kind of aggression the Cleveland offseason lacked. Attack the roster holes left open; target some capable outfielder. Get a No. 4 or 5 starter to help bridge the gap created by the Kluber and Clevinger injuries. Bolster the back end of the roster in a way that helps keep Cleveland afloat now and makes them deeper and more balanced later.
OPTION NO. 3: LET IT RIDE AND WATCH SOMEBODY ELSE WIN
Doing nothing, again, doesn't seem as alluring as it might have during the winter, not that it was really a palatable direction even then. This truly feels like a crossroads moment for this version of the Indians. They need to pick a direction, walk boldly toward it, and not look back. But that's not how the club has behaved in recent months.
While the Indians' brass strokes their metaphorical whiskers in contemplation of an uncertain future, the Kluber news also calls attention to something that was already true. That is, while Cleveland's regression makes an already weak AL Central even weaker, it also draws the division that much closer. None of the five teams can likely target a wild-card run in a league with three power teams in the AL East. However, an Indians demise creates a path to the postseason for any of the five teams.
WHO IS THAT SOMEBODY ELSE?
None of the Central teams can truly be ruled out this early, mostly because it's the kind of grouping where average might be good enough. This outlook is more likely for some than others. But for now, just consider the expected records of the teams based on run differentials through Thursday:
Twins 17-12
Indians 15-14
White Sox 14-15
Royals 14-18
Tigers 11-17
Minnesota has been gathering momentum, and a 6-1 mark within the division suggests the Twins are ready to feast on the weak intradivisional competition. The Twins have holes of their own and it's possible their pitching staff begins to fray as the summer unfolds.
If the Twins regress, and the Indians either start to plummet or pivot to a rebuild, would any of the three rebuilders in the division step into the breech? Should they even try?
THE TEAM NOT TO SLEEP ON
Well, why not the White Sox? Chicago has battled some unfortunate injuries to its pitching staff but still has the group of prospects closest to being able to help the big-league club. The ChiSox also have the best group of almost-established young players trending in the right direction -- Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson stand out. Eloy Jimenez could be back from his ankle sprain in a week or so and the White Sox have hovered near .500 without a major contribution yet from him.
At the same time, Chicago is kind of similar to Cleveland in that just as the top of their roster offers excitement, it's undermined by the bottom of it. The White Sox don't need to acquire foundational players to jump into contention. Instead, they need the projected foundational players in their organization to ascend a bit early and as a group. When you look at the performances of Moncada and Anderson, the potential of Jimenez, and the occasional flashes of brilliance offered by starters Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito, it's not inconceivable this group ascension is already underway.
If that happens, Chicago can take advantage by bolstering depth, adding quality bullpen options and finding another legitimate outfielder. They shouldn't and almost certainly wouldn't need to thin the top couple of layers of their prospect stock. A willingness to take on money might be all that needs to happen.
The cases for Kansas City or Detroit to become aggressive are harder to make, but the longer the White Sox linger in the land of mediocrity, the more difficult it is to look at the current season -- right freaking now -- as anything but an opportunity, rather than as a stepping stone to a brighter future. The case for the White Sox to push the envelope this season, just as they did over the winter with their pursuits of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, is becoming stronger by the week.
Of course, Indians fans can make the same case for their own club, as they have been since last season ended without a title for a 71st consecutive season. One way or another, someone has to win this year's AL Central and it's entirely possible the most aggressive front office and ownership group will have a say in which team that turns out to be.