Differentiating between a simple down year and an inevitable decline due to aging and diminished skills can be difficult. Veteran players with long track records of success can have a tough season, then rebound to something close to their typical performance.
Sometimes, though, that down year isn't due to just a few bad bounces or a nagging injury needing an offseason of rest. Sometimes, that past performance just isn't coming back as the player heads slowly -- or sometimes quickly -- to the end of his career. Younger players might not be as close to retirement, but an off year could be an indicator that we've already seen the player at his best.
Quite a few players had discouraging seasons in 2018, so it's worth checking in on a few of them to see if they've been able to rebound or have had a continuation of last year's troubles.
Heading into 2018, the former MVP looked poised to cash in on free agency at the conclusion of the season. Donaldson's body had other ideas, as he played just 52 games and hit only eight homers after averaging 37 the previous three seasons. His walk rate was still very good, at 14 percent, but his strikeout rate climbed for the second straight season, up to 25 percent, as his power numbers dropped. A brief resurgence with Cleveland at the end of the year wasn't enough to convince teams that he was fully back, and he signed a one-year deal with Atlanta.
This year, Donaldson's strikeout rate is still up over last year's numbers, but his power has improved. He isn't all the way back to the production of his Toronto days, but he's currently hitting 30 percent better than a league-average hitter. More promising going forward, Donaldson is hitting the ball hard, with an average exit velocity of 94 mph, indicating that the high BABIP currently boosting his overall batting line is deserved.
It wouldn't be an overstatement to say that Dexter Fowler was the worst player in the National League last season. In a lost season, Fowler came to the plate 334 times and got just 52 hits. His decent walk rate couldn't prop up his .180 batting average, and with no power to speak of, Fowler hit 40 percent worse than a league-average hitter. Switched to right field because of a decline in range, Fowler didn't add anything on the defensive end either, and he ended the season with -1.2 fWAR. Despite Fowler's struggles, the Cardinals committed to him this season, though the three years remaining on his contract might have factored strongly into that decision.
Fowler is off to a solid start. His walk and strikeout numbers from last season remain unchanged, but he is hitting a ton of line drives, as his 35 percent line drive rate leads the National League. His power, which was nonexistent the first couple weeks of the season, has shown signs of improvement, with five extra-base hits in his past 10 games. He will need to keep those extra-base hits coming because he won't be able to hit over .400 on balls in play all season. So far, Fowler has rewarded the confidence the Cardinals placed in him.
At 34, Joey Votto had a really good season in 2018, with a .284/.417/.419 slash line that was about 30 percent above league average and resulted in a 3.5 fWAR season. Unfortunately, a really good season is well below Votto's standards, as the three previous seasons he averaged 65 percent better than league average and 6.3 fWAR. The primary cause for Votto's decline was a lack of power, as he hit just 12 homers and his slugging percentage dropped more than 150 points from his 2017 campaign.
Votto has continued to struggle in the early going this year. With two homers and six doubles, his isolated power numbers are up a bit over last season, but his strikeouts are way up to an un-Votto-like 27 percent. His walk rate is still good, at 13 percent, but that's still a pretty big drop-off from last year. Votto's long track record of success suggests we shouldn't write him off just yet, but his performance so far isn't very encouraging.
At 27, Bryant is hardly a grizzled veteran, but after three great years to start his career, including an MVP campaign in 2016, his 2018 season was disappointing. Bryant struggled with left shoulder issues all year, twice hitting the injured list, and amassed only 457 plate appearances. When he did play, his bat suffered, and he struggled to put the ball over the fence. He still hit pretty well, with a .374 on-base percentage and .460 slugging, but there was some hope that an offseason of recovery would help Bryant's sore shoulder and bring back his pop.
The 2019 season so far has not been kind to Bryant, with a single home run in his first 20 games -- and that homer came on Opening Day. Bryant has been a line drive/fly ball hitter for most of his young career, but his 41 percent ground ball rate this season is considerably higher than his career rate, and he has hit more ground balls than fly balls. Bryant has been a below-average hitter in April. Given his previous level of performance, it is fair to wonder if the shoulder is still bothering him.
The news isn't all bad for the Cubs. After switching from the South Side to the North Side during the 2017 season via a trade for Eloy Jimenez, Jose Quintana helped stabilize the Cubs' rotation and get them back into the playoffs. His 2018 campaign did not go as well, with his FIP and ERA both over 4.00 and his walk rate approaching double digits. Quintana relied on low walk totals and weak contact on fly balls in his better days with the White Sox, but he couldn't pull it together last year. The righty's 1.6 fWAR was a career low.
Quintana's walk totals have dropped only a little this season, but he's making it work by striking out 30 percent of batters. Quintana is throwing his sinker more and inducing a bunch of ground balls as well as getting more swing-and-misses on a variety of pitches in the zone. It's early, but if Quintana keeps whiffing batters like this, he will be the ace the Cubs need to get back to the playoffs.
Gardner can get lost in the big-name outfield on the Yankees, and that might have benefited him last year, when he had a poor hitting season that went mostly unnoticed. The left fielder was his usual speedy self on the bases and in the field, but at the plate, the 34-year-old showed some signs of erosion with a .236/.322/.368 batting line that was about 10 percent below league average. After hitting 51 extra-base hits in 2017, Gardner had just 39 last season. It was reasonable to project further decline this season, with a potentially tough road to playing time.
Instead, Gardner has been indispensable on the injury-ravaged Yankees. Last year, he hit his fifth home run on June 8. This year, he reached that mark on April 19. With more walks than strikeouts and more plate appearances than anyone else on the team except Luke Voit, Gardner's rebound season is off to a great start.