The 2018 season was a banner one for Justin Verlander. Though he couldn't maintain the Bob Gibson-like performance of his first two months (12 starts, 1.11 ERA), the 35-year-old Astros right-hander notched his 200th career win on Aug. 19 and struck out a career-high 290 batters, leading the American League for the fifth time.
He just missed winning that elusive second Cy Young Award, finishing a very close second (to Blake Snell) for the third time in his career, but he might have punched his ticket to Cooperstown.
For those who care about pitcher win totals -- a decreasing demographic, even among Hall of Fame voters -- Verlander reaching 200 wins is significant, since the only starting pitchers elected to the Hall with fewer are short-career types like Sandy Koufax and several high-peak pitchers whose careers predate World War II. With 206 wins, Verlander is ahead of the 203 amassed by the late Roy Halladay, who will be inducted this summer.
Being within sight of 3,000 strikeouts is significant as well, since 14 of the 16 pitchers to reach that milestone, which is to say everybody except self-sabotaging current candidates Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling, are already inducted. What's more, Verlander's JAWS (the average of his career WAR and seven-year peak WAR, using Baseball-Reference.com's version of the stat) improved from 50.0 to 54.6, rocketing him past eight enshrined starters and suggesting that the 61.5 standard of the 65 enshrinees (including Halladay and the freshly elected Mike Mussina) is still within reach thanks to his mid-30s rebound.
Which players could boost their Hall of Fame candidacies the most in 2019? Based upon both traditional and advanced statistics, here's a closer look at seven players (three position players and four pitchers), each listed alphabetically within their respective groups. Note that I'm forgoing the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols and the just-retired Ichiro Suzuki, all of whom have statistical accomplishments that will make them easy choices down the road.
Position players
With Robinson Cano's PED suspension, Ian Kinsler's mid-30s offensive decline, Dustin Pedroia's seemingly endless string of injuries (including another trip to the injured list Thursday) and Chase Utley's retirement with "only" 1,885 hits -- a problem since no post-1960 player has been elected to the Hall with fewer than 2,000 -- the current landscape lacks for obvious selections at second base. Altuve could fill that void in due time. He's already collected an MVP award, a World Series ring, a Gold Glove, three batting titles and six All-Star appearances, not to mention 1,441 hits, thanks to his four consecutive 200-hit seasons from 2014 to 2017. That's a solid foundation for a player still a few weeks short of 29.
Where Altuve's candidacy is short (ahem) is in the advanced statistics. His 35.4 WAR is just over half the career standard for enshrined second baseman (69.4) and his 34.2 peak WAR is well shy of the 44.4 peak standard -- not surprising given that his career consists of seven full seasons and parts of two others, including this one. His peak score should improve markedly given the modesty of his sixth- and seventh-best seasons (1.4 WAR in 2012, 1.0 WAR in 2013). Matching last year's 5.2 WAR, for example, would replace that 1.0 WAR season among his best seven, increasing his peak score to 38.4, and doing exactly the same thing in 2020 would boost him to 42.4, tied with Pedroia, and 2.0 ahead of Kinsler, both of whom would still outrank Altuve in WAR and JAWS, albeit with far less momentum.
Though he's still only 27 and in his ninth major league season -- two of which (his 40-game 2011 debut and this one) are mere fragments -- Trout has already surpassed the JAWS standard (57.8) among center fielders. His 65.0 JAWS ranks sixth at the position; he surpassed Joe DiMaggio as soon as Baseball-Reference began publishing WAR totals 2½ weeks into the season, and trails only Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Mickey Mantle and Ken Griffey Jr.
Meanwhile, his 63.8 peak WAR is fourth behind only Mays, Cobb and Mantle. A 7.6 WAR showing (a mark he has equaled or surpassed every full season besides his injury-marred 2017) would both tie him for third in peak score and push him past Griffey (68.9) for fifth in JAWS. And he has yet to begin that 12-year extension.
Though he's off to his second slow start in a row, the 35-year-old Votto isn't in bad shape with regard to Cooperstown. He has notched seven All-Star appearances, a Gold Glove and an MVP award, and while he never has won a batting title (despite a .310 career batting average), he has led the league in on-base percentage seven times, tying him with Cobb and leaving him behind only Rogers Hornsby (nine), Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds (10 apiece) and Ted Williams (12). That's an accomplishment that should resonate with an increasingly sophisticated electorate down the road. While he's 258 hits short of 2,000, as he's under contract though 2023, he should wind up in the vicinity of 2,500.
Meanwhile, Votto's 58.8 WAR is 8.0 below the career standard for first basemen, but thanks in part to his big 7.4-WAR season in 2017, his 46.0 peak WAR puts him above that standard (42.7), and his 52.4 JAWS is within hailing distance of that standard (54.8). Another 4.8 WAR, whether produced this season or over a longer time frame, would nose him past that mark.
Pitchers
With an 11-win lead over Jon Lester (189 to 178), Greinke is the only pitcher with a real shot at reaching 200 this year. With 2,463 strikeouts under his belt, the 35-year-old righty will need to maintain about a 200-strikeout clip to reach 3,000 by the end of his current deal (2021), but he can help himself more immediately on the advanced stat front.
Pitcher offense counts in JAWS, as many a heavy-hitting hurler has helped his Hall worthiness over the years. Thanks in part to the impact of Greinke's bat (4.6 WAR career, including 0.4 this year via a two-homer game on April 2), he's is the active leader in WAR among pitchers (65.5) and second in both peak WAR (46.9) and JAWS (56.2). It's not out of the question that he could continue to improve his peak score, given that he has four seasons between 4.9 and 5.5 WAR; he has averaged 5.5 over the past two seasons. Another 5.5 WAR season, for example, would boost him to 70.8/47.5/59.2. He'll have to trim his currently astronomical rate of 3.1 homers allowed per nine innings to get there, though.
Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer
With three Cy Young Awards apiece, the 31-year-old Kershaw and 34-year-old Scherzer are probably Cooperstown-bound already; the only three-time winner outside the Hall is Clemens, whose candidacy has been stalled by PED allegations. Though he's the all-time leader in ERA+ (159) among pitchers with at least 2,000 innings, and the active leader in peak WAR (49.6) and JAWS (57.1), Kershaw has been slowed by injuries lately, totaling 485⅓ innings over the past three years, compared to his average of 222 innings over the previous six. Last year's 2.73 ERA was his highest since 2010, and his 4.0 WAR (including offense) was his lowest since 2009.
Scherzer, who got a late jump on establishing himself as a starter, has the second-highest peak WAR (47.2) among active pitchers, but his 51.3 JAWS trails Kershaw, Greinke and Verlander. Even though he's seven wins and 203 strikeouts ahead of Kershaw (160 to 153 in the former, 2,484 to 2,281 in the latter), the age difference lends a bit more urgency to his climb toward milestones. As Kershaw's recent travails remind us, durability isn't something that can be taken for granted among pitchers.
With 246 wins and 2,989 strikeouts, the 38-year-old Sabathia, who has already announced that this will be his final season, is within range of a pair of major milestones. After undergoing offseason surgeries to clean up his right knee and clear a blocked artery in his heart, the oversized southpaw made his season debut on April 13, with five innings of one-hit shutout ball but no win due to lack of run support. When he reaches 3,000 strikeouts, Sabathia will be only the third lefty to do so, joining Steve Carlton and Randy Johnson. That's more of an anomaly than a true measure of difficulty in terms of handedness; historically, lefty starters have struck out batters at a slightly higher rate than righties. It's excellent company nonetheless.
The traditional stats, including what's likely to be the highest win total of any pitcher to retire between Johnson (2009, with 303 wins) and Verlander (who has said he wants to pitch until age 45, which would be the 2028 season), are probably Sabathia's best hope for the Hall. Though he's a former Cy Young and World Series winner, and a six-time All-Star, his WAR credentials (63.0 career/39.3 peak/51.2 JAWS) are solidly below the Hall standards for starters (73.2/49.9/61.5), as well as the numbers of his aforementioned contemporaries. His work on three days' rest to help the 2008 Brewers to the playoffs and the 2009 Yankees to a championship should augment his old-school credentials, as should his durability from ages 20 through 32, when he averaged 32 starts and 213 innings. They don't make 'em like that anymore.