ST. LOUIS -- If there is a theme in the early going of the National League race, it's that in today's reliever-driven baseball world, the soft underbelly of a club's bullpen can quickly become the only part of a team's roster that matters.
This assumes, of course, that a team's starting rotation, defense and hitting are all functioning in a contender-appropriate fashion. But even if that team has a quality relief ace, it may not matter if the inherent flakiness of relief pitching manifests itself.
This is a thought that I've had all week as I've watched the St. Louis Cardinals turn around their early season against the high-flying Los Angeles Dodgers. St. Louis polished off a four-game sweep with an 11-7 win on Thursday. The Cardinals' relief work played a big part in the series.
"That was a huge part of our series," Cardinals manager Mike Shildt said. "The bullpen, when you talk about team, every single guy out there contributed."
Los Angeles entered the series 8-2, with a scoring average just shy of eight runs per game. The Dodgers had homered in all 10 of their games before the St. Louis series.
That all changed after the first inning of the first game of the four-game set. The Dodgers put up two runs in that inning and gave every indication that the offensive onslaught that carried them at home and through Colorado would continue. Instead, it ran smack into a red brick wall. L.A. managed just one run over its next 21 innings.
The St. Louis starting pitching was just fine, with Jack Flaherty's six-inning outing Wednesday qualifying as a couple of notches better than fine. The Dodgers' starters mostly struggled, with Hyun-Jin Ryu leaving his start early and ending up on the disabled list with a groin strain, while Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda and Walker Buehler were all knocked around pretty good.
However, it was the bullpens that stood out in the series, and not because of high-leverage standouts Jordan Hicks of St. Louis and Kenley Jansen of Los Angeles. Heck, the only appearance Jansen even made in the series was when the television cameras caught him busting a gut over Marcell Ozuna's pantomime of robbing a home run from Enrique Hernandez.
The bullpen numbers from the series are neither here nor there. The teams combined for a 2.56 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning. It's the names: Dylan Floro, Pedro Baez, John Brebbia, Mike Mayers, John Gant, Caleb Ferguson, Dennis Santana, Yimi Garcia. While you may be a close enough follower of baseball to know all of those names, to more mainstream fans, these are faceless men. And in today's game, they make all the difference.
"The thing I appreciate most about it," Shildt said, "is they're always in attack mode. They were throwing strikes."
Most of those good numbers were on the Cardinals' side by the end of Thursday's game, when St. Louis touched up Pedro Baez and Yimi Garcia for six runs. St. Louis' relievers were charged with one run in the four games -- a robust 0.57 ERA. Faceless and deadly.
The Dodgers still hope to get Joe Kelly, who struggled again in his only appearance in St. Louis, into a set-up role similar to the one Brandon Morrow held down a couple of years ago in support of Jansen. The Cardinals still hope that Andrew Miller can rediscover his unhittable slider and serve as a late-inning complement to Hicks. But it's the ability of the teams to get production out of those other guys, and other still more faceless men who will surely cycle through the roster throughout the season, that may determine how the postseason races eventually shake out.
The same holds true for every NL contender, of course. We've seen the Cubs struggle to get outs of any kind, much less bullpen outs. The Brewers' bullpen is surprisingly vulnerable after being thinned by injuries. Milwaukee's Josh Hader may be the best reliever in the game right now and he's a tremendous weapon. But Milwaukee's underbelly is softer than it was last season, with Corey Knebel fresh off season-ending elbow surgery, Bobby Wahl out for the season with a knee injury and Jeremy Jeffress (shoulder) another big injury question mark, and last season's live young arms (Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff) trying to find their way in the Brewers' rotation.
Craig Counsell has tried to piece together high-leverage units out of pitchers such as journeyman Alex Wilson, soft-throwing slider specialist Alex Claudio, Matt Albers and others. It has been precarious and suddenly the Brewers have cooled after a hot start. Last year's strength has become a possible sore spot.
You can make similar observations about the other preseason NL favorites. The Dodgers, Nationals, Mets, Cubs, Brewers, Phillies and Braves all entered Thursday's games with bullpen ERAs over 5.00. The Cardinals rank second in the NL (2.81). If St. Louis can keep that unit strong, the Redbirds could emerge as the most complete team in the senior circuit.
Obviously, it's early, and many other things have to fall into place before we can tout this week's glimpse at the Dodgers versus the Cardinals as an eventual championship series preview. October is a long way off. Still, these look like two postseason-capable teams.
However ...
The Dodgers will have to prove that they can win games without home runs, even though the long ball again will clearly be their offense's primary weapon. But let's recall last season. The Dodgers led the league in runs but were still plagued by critiques that saw the offense as inconsistent, a trait driven by inadequate situational hitting.
As mentioned, the Dodgers mashed their way through their first 10 games but once the long balls disappeared in St. Louis, the attack went flat. They were still putting up Dodger at-bats -- long counts, walks, etc. -- but that's where it stopped, with Tuesday's game serving as the avatar for what the Dodgers don't want to repeat from its 2018 campaign. L.A. had seven hits and drew eight walks in that one, but stranded 13 runners and was shut out.
"You've got to give those guys credit," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. "Those pitchers, they're making pitches when they need to, to get the strikeout, to get the soft contact, getting out of trouble."
Last season, the Dodgers went 77-44 in games where they hit at least one homer. They were 15-27 when they didn't. That's a fairly typical disparity at the league level. But the Dodgers don't want to be at the league level; they want to win it all. Last season's Red Sox went 23-30 in homerless games, while the 2017 Astros were 18-18.
Of course, the Dodgers rediscovered their power stroke on Thursday on a windy afternoon, with even Buehler getting into the act. When David Freese went deep, it left Justin Turner as the only position player left on the L.A. roster without a home run. The Dodgers' deep group of power bats is going to be the offense's primary engine. They just need a better backup motor.
Such as ...
Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong, who could be headed for a big year. He's in his third season, during which he turns 25, and that combination is one of the factors in what looks like a possible breakout season. Then there is also the fact that the ball jumps off DeJong's bat, and has pretty much since he arrived in St. Louis. DeJong's .694 slugging percentage on balls in play since he reached the majors ranks 39th among all hitters, one point behind Colorado's Nolan Arenado.
The question for DeJong has been contact and the composition of this St. Louis lineup should really help in that regard. Most days, DeJong will bat third behind pitcher-grinders Matt Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt, and ahead of dangerous Marcell Ozuna. (This varies on days Shildt uses Jose Martinez in the starting lineup.) Already this season, DeJong has seen his rate of pitches in the zone jump nearly 2 percent over last year, per FanGraphs.com.
"I see a lot of pitches watching those guys' at-bats, seeing what the pitcher is working with," DeJong said. "It gives me a chance to come up with my plan. Seeing those guys work counts kind of wears down the pitchers, too. I'm ready to hit as soon as I get in there."
As a result, DeJong has been more aggressive at the dish, resulting in an early slash line of .346/.414/.673 with 10 extra-base hits and 13 runs scored in 13 games. His slugging on balls in play is .971, ranking 11th in the majors. DeJong simply looks like a player for whom everything is coming together.
This assumes that ...
Ozuna holds up his end of the bargain. While for him this series will live in infamy because of his awkward wall-climbing skills, Ozuna hit the ball hard all through the week. He homered twice, added a double and hit four balls that registered an exit velocity of 100 mph or better.
Carpenter and Goldschmidt have yet to find their usual levels, but the records of consistent secondary skills are both airtight. They'll get there. DeJong, as mentioned, looks like a breakout player. If Ozuna can recover his 2017 form from his last Miami season, the St. Louis lineup starts to look pretty special.
Also pretty special ...
The Dodgers and Cardinals are among the deepest teams in baseball. We've been saying that about the Dodgers for years and it's just as true in 2019. But St. Louis has built a deep and versatile group as well.
In Shildt's primary configuration, he has a terrific two-way infield of Goldschmidt, Kolten Wong, DeJong and Carpenter. Yadier Molina is the everyday catcher, one of the few backstops left who is truly a lineup regular. In the outfield, the default group is Ozuna, Harrison Bader and Dexter Fowler.
When that group is starting together, Shildt has powerhouse outfielder Tyler O'Neill on the bench. O'Neill hit 57 homers in the high minors over the last two seasons and on a rebuilding team would be getting everyday at-bats. Then he has Martinez, a terrific hitter who has hit .305/.366/.470 so far in his big league career. He'd be a regular on most teams, though he doesn't have a true defensive position.
Add to that veteran Jedd Gyorko, who has averaged 20 homers per year during his St. Louis career, and veteran backstop Matt Wieters, and Shildt has a lot of weapons for what will often be a four-player bench. Utility player Yairo Munoz is a player a lot of teams would love to have as well, but he's on the shuttle to Triple-A Memphis, for when St. Louis decides to go with a 13-man pitching staff.
"I just wrote [the word] down: depth," Shildt said after the series finale. "As a team that we know is deep, you've got guys on the bench that are really good players."
Anyway ...
The series didn't really change the early narrative of the Dodgers' season. It's never good to be swept in a four-game series, but L.A. had a streak of shaky outings from a starting rotation that it has to feel good about, especially with Clayton Kershaw poised to return and Rich Hill not far behind. The lineup didn't hit much with men on base, but it's a dynamic group. And, not for nothing, the NL West is already shaping up as the one-team race many of us thought it could be.
However, for the Cardinals to win four straight over the two-time defending NL champs really kicks their season into high gear. Coming off a shaky series against San Diego, St. Louis entered the week just 4-5 and with a lineup stacked with a lot of disappointing numbers.
Suddenly, that record is 8-5 and St. Louis might lead the NL Central by the end of the day. They've gotten there without what they'll eventually get from Carpenter and Goldschmidt. Add to that the good tidings that come from the extensions the club has reached with Goldschmidt and Carpenter, and this is shaping up as a bright summer in St. Louis, one that might return them to the postseason for the first time in three long years.
If the Redbirds get there and find the Dodgers waiting for them, don't be surprised.
Extra innings
1. On Tuesday, Dodgers pitchers Ross Stripling and Caleb Ferguson both were rankled by what they perceived as efforts by plate umpire Doug Eddings to hurry them through their mid-inning routines.
"[Ferguson] just felt that Doug was rushing him between innings," Roberts said. "I heard he was doing the same thing with Ross, though I haven't circled back with Ross. He was pretty fired up."
I asked St. Louis righty Dakota Hudson, who opposed Stripling in the game, about it. Hudson said that while Eddings asked him a couple of times how many pitches he needed, it was nothing out of the ordinary. This isn't to pick on Eddings, but it's worth watching to see if these kinds of frictions become more common as baseball tries to tighten the dead time during games.
2. With Terry Francona signing an extension to remain as the Indians manager through at least the 2022 season, he has a chance to pass the 700-win mark with two franchises.
Cleveland has averaged 90.8 wins during Francona's six full seasons there. At that pace, he'll be at 700 by the 2020 or 2021 season. By the end of 2022, he'd be at 908 wins for the Indians, easily surpassing Lou Boudreau (728) for most in franchise history.
Francona's 744 wins with Boston ranks second in the history of that franchise, behind Joe Cronin's 1,071. Francona would become just the fifth manager to reach 700 wins with two franchises, joining Tony LaRussa (A's, Cardinals), Sparky Anderson (Reds, Tigers), Bruce Bochy (Padres, Giants) and Jim Leyland (Pirates, Tigers).
3. Can we be a little less gleeful about Chris Davis' hitless streak? I realize he makes a lot of money, but this has been painful to watch. Yet it has been fodder for some awfully glib and uncaring reactions. Myself, I have taken to pounding the desk every time he makes an out by now. For one thing, while there is no denying that Davis has been awfully bad, during this current streak he has also been terribly unlucky. But as long as the Orioles keep running him out there, he'll eventually have one drop in, we can move on to something else, and I'll be glad.
4. Did you see Toronto's Lourdes Gurriel Jr. pull off a straight steal of home at Boston the other day? Gurriel took a massive lead off the third-base bag, as the Red Sox were playing a shift. Chris Sale took a full windup and Gurriel dashed home on a play we just don't see enough of anymore. There have been many times the past couple of years when I've noticed teams in a shift with a runner on third, and most of the time, the runner does not take full advantage with his lead. Maybe Gurriel's play, which ran heavy on the highlight reels after it happened, will spur more of this. For one thing, it might make teams more reticent to shift in those spots.