You would assume that general managers and baseball operations honchos have already asked their analysts to assess the impact of the revamped July 31 trade deadline, which has been hardened under the new rules negotiated by Major League Baseball and the players' association.
The August waiver moves will disappear, mostly, and teams have probably started their never-ending search for the undervalued assets that will emerge in the market, through new practices and trends.
But in recent days, evaluators offered their first impressions of how the summer's trade market will change.
1. The volume of minor league trades will grow significantly. Contending teams have typically used the August waiver period to add depth -- a late addition of a veteran to round out a roster, by picking up the extra reliever, a pinch hitter, a pinch runner or a pricey late-season salary dump (think Jay Bruce to the Indians in 2017).
Because clubs will no longer be able to do that, the early expectation of some executives is that there will be a ton of movement among those players working on minor league contracts. Fringy major leaguers on Triple-A and Double-A rosters will become coveted, to the degree that one club official expects the agents representing those kinds of players to seek out clauses before the trade deadline, or for August, to give the player the flexibility to pursue big-league jobs elsewhere.
For example: Let's say the Red Sox suffer a series of injuries just after the trade deadline and are forced to scramble for an additional middle infielder. A Triple-A journeyman -- somebody like Adam Rosales, not on a 40-man roster -- could use a contractual out clause to jump to the Red Sox for a promised roster spot in the big leagues. Because there is no restriction on minor league moves in August, teams could use this as a loophole around the new July 31 deadline.
2. The new hardened deadline will greatly help the teams that decide to sell. It was very early last season that the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles communicated to other clubs that they were ready to listen to offers. But the potential buyers that blanched at the initial asking prices had the luxury of waiting weeks and weeks for a lot more options to emerge.
Now contenders will be forced into decisions on major league trades earlier, and teams that are on the fence about whether to be buyers or sellers won't have access to an August trading period. This means that there will be fewer selling teams, and the sellers are better positioned to maintain high asking prices. That'll be good for the Orioles, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Royals and other teams not expected to contend. If Madison Bumgarner pitches well and the Giants decide to auction him off to contenders, they're better positioned to get a big haul because the potential buyers won't have the luxury of waiting.
3. It's possible that there will be more June or early July trades. Teams that are unsure about whether to be buyers or sellers might feel compelled to make a move or two or three in order to gain clarity which way to go by July 31. Let's say the Los Angeles Angels are six games out of first place in mid-June and trying to determine whether to trade away assets on July 31. They could push to augment the team before the All-Star break -- and if the club drifted backward even more, they could in good conscience decide to become sellers.
4. There would seem to be potential for waiver-wire collusion in August. Already, there is concern among officials that there will be prearranged waiver dumps -- rival executives arranging a player transaction through an understanding that Team A will place an established (and pricey) player on irrevocable waivers, and Team B will be positioned to claim.
"That's something that [MLB] will have to monitor," said one official.
5. The sellers will have to be prepared to eat more salary in making trades. Let's say a decent (but not great) player making $15 million is available in the trade market. In the past, his team would probably carry him through the July 31 trade deadline and into August, understanding that few teams have the payroll flexibility to take on a third of that player's salary for the final two months.
Now, with August basically off limits, the sellers will have to act more aggressively with a player like this, and be willing to absorb more salary in any July deal in order to improve the prospect return -- or just move the contract and save a little money.
6. Late July will be hotter than ever. There are going to be a ton of moves in the last days and hours leading up to the July 31 deadline, some club officials believe.
News from around the major leagues
When union chief Tony Clark met with the Tigers and Yankees in recent days, as part of the players associations' annual tour, the players left their respective clubhouses -- where these meetings have almost always occurred -- and gathered on side fields, away from the buildings.
There has been a lot of conversation about possible surveillance in the industry in recent years -- of pitch signals, of dugout communication, WiFi monitoring, etc. -- and this is just another example, when there is significant tension between the union and management. It has been mentioned in at least one meeting this spring that players might have to alter their phone use because, well, you never know who might be watching or listening.
Paranoia? Nah. Just a sign of the times.
• Adam Eaton wrecked his left leg in April 2017, and in his return to action last year, he moved with a noticeable limp. He played, but wasn't fully recovered. But rival evaluators in Florida this spring have noted that all outward signs of the original problems are gone, as Eaton runs the bases and covers the outfield, and they believe that Eaton will be helped by a return to right field, a position at which he has dominated defensively in the past. Said Nationals GM Mike Rizzo: "He's moving really well."
• Franmil Reyes of the Padres looks like he could be a breakout candidate this season, at age 23. Reyes hit .280 with 16 homers in 87 games for San Diego last season, and is poised to be part of an evolving Padres lineup. "If they find or grow two more [starting pitchers] in the next couple of years, they could be special," said one evaluator.
• In theory, unsigned free agents like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel might find a landing spot with any contenders that suffer major injuries to pitchers. But one club staffer believes that concept might be outdated, particularly as teams grow increasingly wary about rushing a newly signed player through their preseason preparation. "A job will open," said the staffer, "but the industry valuation doesn't change. If a team values a player at X number of dollars over Y number of years, that doesn't multiply because of an injury, right?"
• Any team that signs Kimbrel now would have to sacrifice draft picks and the slot money attached to them, and for teams like the Nationals and Braves, this is not an insignificant consideration. Kimbrel has waited 167 days in free agency since the end of the World Series, and if he waits another 83 days -- beyond the 2019 draft -- then he will no longer be anchored to the draft pick compensation that likely depreciates any offers.
Mostly, it's a bad idea for any position player or starting pitcher to wait until midsummer to sign, as Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales know firsthand. But for relievers, it might be a little different. The trade value of a reliever -- an established closer, particularly -- is usually never higher than at midseason, when roster holes and club weaknesses are well-defined. Additionally, any contender looking for a prime reliever will probably blanche at some of the asking prices -- like the Cubs giving up Gleyber Torres in an Aroldis Chapman deal, or the Indians surrendering two prime prospects for Andrew Miller. If Kimbrel is unsigned in mid-June, he'd present an interesting alternative, especially for big-market teams, because he would only cost money, and not prospects.
It might behoove Kimbrel to wait, although in sitting out, the right-hander -- who turns 31 later this month -- runs the risks of heightening worries over the shaky outings he had for the Red Sox down the stretch and in the postseason. After July 22, Kimbrel appeared in 30 games, including the postseason, and command was a serious problem -- in 31 1/3 innings, he allowed 18 earned runs, with 23 walks (and 43 strikeouts).
Baseball Tonight podcast
Friday: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts goes rapid-fire; Jessica Mendoza on two breakout candidates and her collection of baseball caps; Karl Ravech on the forthcoming rule changes.
Thursday: There will be an Ichiro celebration next week, and Eduardo Perez discusses; David Schoenfield on Ronald Acuna Jr.'s chances for the NL MVP; Sarah Langs and The Numbers Game.
Wednesday: We've got beefs over the player placement in ESPN's Top 100 -- hello, Francisco Lindor -- and Jayson Stark, Paul Hembekides and Boog Sciambi discuss; a sit-down with Yankees manager Aaron Boone.
Tuesday: Angels right-hander Matt Harvey goes rapid-fire; Keith Law on strategy, the negotiating of contracts, Craig Kimbrel and team decisions; Sarah Langs and The Numbers Game; Tim Keown on his Bryce Harper cover story, and the question of whether Scott Boras angled for an opt-out (and of course he did).
Monday: Justin Verlander goes rapid-fire; Tim Kurkjian on Manny Machado's honesty; Mandy Bell of MLB.com on the Cleveland Indians.