Start with this: Any trade of Jacoby Ellsbury would be incredibly difficult. He's 35 years old and hasn't played in a major league game in 476 days. He's owed about $48 million for the next two years, he has a full no-trade clause and -- here's the capper -- if the season started today, Ellsbury wouldn't be cleared to play, because he's still going through treatment for his hip.
Did we say it would be difficult to trade him? It might be impossible. Because of the no-trade clause, Ellsbury could simply try to angle to have a full range of choices by rejecting all proposals, then wait for the Yankees to get boxed in by roster needs and release him.
But in order to salvage any opportunities to play in these, the final years of his career, it might behoove Ellsbury to jump at any chance to join another organization interested in him -- and the San Francisco Giants have at least some interest, and some need. Ellsbury doesn't have much trade value, and if you want to define how much, just imagine what he might garner if he was a free agent today, in this freezing-cold market, coming off a yearlong absence.
The guess here is that he would get somewhere between $1.5 million and $5 million in base salary in a one-year deal, based on contracts doled out to others. Avisail Garcia, 27, got $2.5 million from Tampa Bay, and the ever-reliable Nick Markakis got $6 million from the Braves, coming off a season of 162 games and a .366 on-base percentage.
The one difference is that Ellsbury has a ton of experience playing center field, and that's why the Giants have at least some interest in him. Steven Duggar had shoulder surgery last September, and San Francisco's front office isn't entirely certain when he's going to come back or how effective he'll be; they expect he'll play relatively soon, but shoulder injuries can be tricky.
The Giants are looking for a center field safety net, and Ellsbury could be that. Additionally, the Giants have a lot of big-money contracts they'd like to move, creating "bad contract-for-bad contract" trade possibilities for the Yankees and San Francisco to explore.
Among those:
Brandon Belt. The first baseman, who turns 31 in April, is owed $51.6 million for the next three seasons. His injury history is long -- he has one season of more than 150 games in his career -- and the Yankees already have two first-base options, Luke Voit and Greg Bird. While the money for Belt and Ellsbury is comparable, the Yankees would probably rather not box themselves in at first base without taking at least one more look at Bird in 2019 to see if he can work through his injuries and inconsistency, and they really liked what they got from Voit in his two months with the team. Consider these numbers after the trades of last summer:
Luke Voit: .333 average, .405 OBP, 14 homers, 33 RBIs in 39 games
Manny Machado with L.A.: .273 average, .338 OBP, 13 homers, 42 RBIs in 66 games
This is not to compare Voit to Machado, an elite defender, but it shows why the Yankees like Voit after what they saw last season. Belt isn't really a fit.
Evan Longoria. The third baseman, 33, is owed about $60 million by the Giants over the next four seasons. The Yankees intend to give Miguel Andujar an opportunity to improve defensively in 2019, and if that doesn't work, they could target Nolan Arenado next fall. Plus, Longoria is a right-handed hitter, and the Yankees are already right-handed-heavy in a home park that favors lefties. Longoria isn't a fit.
Jeff Samardzija. The right-hander is owed $39.6 million for the next two years, close to what the Yankees owe Ellsbury, and the Yankees have been poking around about rotation depth. Based on Samardzija's 2018 performance, however, it's hard to see what any team could expect out of him. He struggled with shoulder problems, and in 10 starts for the Giants, he had a 6.25 ERA, walking 26 in 44 2/3 innings. Jim Hendry, an assistant for Yankees GM Brian Cashman, knows Samardzija well, and could vouch for his competitiveness, but that doesn't seem like enough for the Yankees to consider a deal.
As SF has canvassed the market for OF help, they've talked about Jacoby Ellsbury, probably would be open to a bad contract swap. For example, speculation: Cueto owed $68m, coming back from TJ surgery; NYY could recoup insurance in '19. Ellsbury owed $48m. $ would have to even out
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) February 4, 2019
Johnny Cueto. He turns 33 this month and is coming off Tommy John surgery performed last August; he's unlikely to contribute anything but perhaps a small handful of innings in 2019. Cueto has three years left on his deal, for a total of about $70 million. Here's how he might be attractive to the Yankees in a swap for Ellsbury: The Yankees could collect insurance this year and then have Cueto as a rotation option in the last two years of his deal, at ages 34 and 35. It's impossible to know exactly what he might be as he comes back from Tommy John surgery, if he'll be worth anything.
But there is a chance Cueto would recover and use his vast knowledge of pitching to bounce back and be serviceable, just as there is a chance Ellsbury could be of some value to the Giants. It would be difficult for either team to clearly assess that type of value in two expensive players, however. Just one more reason this conversation would be complicated and executing a deal would be very challenging.
The phone call was made, however, for the two teams to discuss -- and probably dismiss -- any chance of the two sides matching up. Even if they did, Ellsbury could just say no.