The temperature in Minneapolis this morning is minus-25, making it impossible to imagine that in less than two months, first-year manager Rocco Baldelli will jot down the Twins' lineup for their home opener against the Indians on March 28. The card that he will exchange with Cleveland manager Terry Francona (or bench coach Brad Mills, if Francona delegates the responsibility) should contain a batting order with more power.
The Twins finished 23rd in the majors in home runs in 2018, and since the end of last season, Joe Mauer -- someone who generated a lot of hits and walks but not necessarily a lot of home runs -- has retired, leaving open the power position of first base. The Twins will likely fill that spot with C.J. Cron, who mashed 30 homers for the Rays and for Baldelli, a Tampa Bay coach last season. Minnesota locked in a full-time designated hitter in Nelson Cruz, who clubbed 37 homers for the Mariners last season. When the Brewers decided not to tender a contract to Jonathan Schoop, the Twins quickly moved in and signed the second baseman, who accumulated 78 homers the past three seasons.
There is no mystery about what Minnesota has tried to do with its offense this winter, which is important, because the Twins will already go into spring training with more than their share of uncertainty.
Buxton is now 25, four years older than Ronald Acuna Jr., five years older than Juan Soto. In a Major League Baseball world that is increasingly younger, Buxton can barely be considered a young player anymore. He's eligible for arbitration this winter for the first time, having accumulated two years and 160 days of service time, and in 1,074 plate appearances, he has a .285 on-base percentage. He has earned praise for his makeup and his work ethic, and he might be the fastest player in baseball, and perhaps the best center fielder. But the Twins need him to demonstrate more plate discipline this year, to produce more -- which he showed he can do in an extended stretch of 2017; in the last two months of that season, he batted .298, with a .342 OBP and a .541 slugging percentage. Buxton has put on about 20 pounds this winter, in an effort to hit for more power.
The Twins need Sano to get in front of his conditioning, once and for all, and with Cruz set to DH and Cron established at first base, Minnesota needs Sano to show he can be a serviceable third baseman. For years, Sano was viewed as a star prospect, somebody who might be a high-impact hitter for a long time in the big leagues, and to this end, he was an All-Star in 2017, landing a spot in the Home Run Derby. But Sano turns 26 in May, and considering the trends in the sport, it's possible he's closer to the end of his career in the majors than the beginning.
Front offices now value defensive versatility, and if Sano can't find a position, he'll add none. He has three-plus years of service time, and if he doesn't hit this year, he might be a non-tender candidate next fall, joining a long list of DH types who have increasingly struggled to find regular spots in free agency. Remember Jesus Montero, the former Yankees prospect who could really hit in the minors but didn't necessarily have a natural defensive spot partly because of his ballooned weight? Yes, that Jesus Montero. Well, he is 29 years old, and hasn't played in the big leagues since 2015. This is the path that Sano is on if he doesn't hit better than the .199/.281/.398 he mustered in 77 games last season.
And Twins shortstop Polanco will be 25 on Opening Day this year. In the second half of 2017, Polanco emerged as a major power threat, hitting 10 homers and slugging .511 in 63 games, for an .870 OPS -- 274 points higher than in the first half.
Then, last spring, Polanco was suspended under baseball's performance-enhancing-drug policy, missing half of the season. After he returned, he seemed to build on the progress he made the year before, batting .288 in 77 games, with a more than respectable .772 OPS.
What is Polanco, exactly, following the PED suspension? What is Sano? What is Buxton?
The Twins need to find out this year, as they move forward under Baldelli.