The Manny Machado Tour of 2018 seems to have ended with the free-agent superstar's visit to Philadelphia on Thursday. Tour might be laying it on a bit thick. It was only three cities, with Chicago and New York coming before Philly. The Rolling Stones still make more stops than that, and they ran out of surplus value in the late 1970s.
Where will Manny land? The honest answer here is simply that I don't know. I could guess, especially in this instance, when there is apparently a 1-in-3 shot at being right. But the tea leaves in the Machado pursuit have been tough to read, and it doesn't help that for each of the three teams involved, I think Bryce Harper would be the smarter mega-splurge.
I don't know what Manny thinks. I don't know much about Manny, really. My direct experience with him is that he is pleasant and cordial and also very adept at forming answers that in a general way answer the questions, but when it comes to specifics don't reveal anything at all. His "Johnny Hustle" comments probably serve as an example of why he usually takes this path.
Let's assume the money part of this is a minor factor. What I mean by that is not that Machado doesn't care about the money part. I'm assuming that the market for him is what it is, and that all three of these teams are willing to work within those parameters to the extent that Machado's final decision will not necessarily be based on the terms of the contract. The contract might have ruled out the other 27 teams, but from here on out, I assume it will be other things that sway Machado's decision.
Where is the best fit for Machado among the White Sox, Yankees and Phillies? Here is my conjecture, ranking the fits in order. Me being Manny, if you will, but also me being the teams. When it comes to $300 million or so, this has got to work both ways.
1. Machado has been cited for plenty of unnecessary on-field antics over the years, and the end result is that there are certain venues in which he is particularly unpopular. The 26-year-old played in two of them in the 2018 postseason: Milwaukee and Boston, cities where the booing of Machado was raised to an art form in October.
That brings us to Philadelphia, a city of rabid fandom. It's also a city not shy about expressing its displeasure with those who displease its fans. (In deference to the calendar, I won't allude to the stereotypical example of this.) Given the perception and occasional reality of Machado's lapses in effort, would he want to spend seven to 10 years getting a Milwaukee/Boston treatment for his home games?
That of course is a far-fetched scenario. Philadelphia sports fans simply want their teams to win to a degree that is frankly a little terrifying, but if Machado were to pick the Phillies and help them win a championship, the upside in adulation would be much more than the downside of possible non-acceptance. If Machado performs, all would be well, one would think.
"I think the Philadelphia fan base is an incredibly passionate and devoted one, and they demand that their players play hard," Phillies manager Gabe Kapler said at the winter meetings. "They set an incredibly high bar and are disappointed when players don't meet that bar."
The Phillies have completed their rebuilding phase and payroll reset, and after a half-season of contention in 2018 are very much in win-now mode. They have cash to spread around and are willing to do so even beyond what they would give to Machado. Still, the 2018 season ended badly for the Phils. And the Phillies have the second-worst record in baseball since 2013, better only than fellow Machado contender the White Sox. Like the White Sox, high-level success has been fleeting in the annals of the Phillies, who have won just two World Series. Heck, the Phils have won three fewer World Series than the American League's Athletics won while calling Philadelphia home, and they left town in 1954.
But it's a new century, and before the Phillies hit their recent protracted rebuild, they enjoyed the best sustained stretch of success since the playing days of Mike Schmidt. During the past decade alone, the Phils' attendance has ranged from 3.78 million down to 1.83 million. Win and fans will come out in droves, but you'd better win. All of this is to say that if Machado signs with the Phillies, the level of expectation attached to him will be off the charts. Whether that is a good or bad thing is yet another element confined to Machado's mind.
Citizens Bank Park is a great place for a power hitter, of course. In fact, it rates as baseball's top home run park for right-handed hitters. Machado is more than a slugger, however, and the park has rated as below league norms for righties in terms of batting average.
Whereas we have to look down the line to see how Machado fits in the White Sox infield long term, we only have to look at the Phillies' current roster for a reading of his fit there. After trading for Jean Segura, the Phillies are penciled in to have Segura at short, the hard-to-read Maikel Franco at third and veteran Cesar Hernandez at second. None of them is going to bump Machado. Philadelphia also has young Scott Kingery on hand, who even without Machado is slated for multiposition duty next season.
The Phillies have the resources and the urgency to win now. They showed glimpses of being ready to do that in 2018, though, in some ways, their collapse raised questions about how some of the younger players might pan out. In some respects, Philadelphia's aggressive approach this winter is to brush aside those questions. Going big this winter was the plan, and now is not the time to back away. Beside, while the National League East has upgraded this winter and should be deeper in 2019, it remains a winnable division.
Machado clearly provides a sizable upgrade over what the Phillies got from their infield in 2018. While Franco could finally put together a big season, Kingery could make a second-year leap and Hernandez could bounce back, all of those contingencies would be less urgent if Machado were to come aboard. Signing him also would free up the Phillies -- who put the onus on themselves to make a splash signing this winter -- to make targeted acquisitions to flesh out the roster before spring training.
If the Philadelphia crucible isn't bothersome to Machado, there is nothing about the Phillies that seems wrong for him.
2. "The future" is what Rick Renteria cited as Chicago's best selling point, when asked at the winter meetings. His front office then went out and traded for Yonder Alonso a few days later. Alonso turns 32 shortly after the 2019 season begins, and through the end of last season, he rated as an average-ish everyday defensive first baseman. His contract runs through the 2020 campaign. The White Sox have a very good first baseman in Jose Abreu, who is about three months older than Alonso and can hit free agency after the 2019 season.
Sure, Alonso and Abreu can swing back and forth between first and designated hitter, and Alonso brings a needed lefty presence to the Chicago lineup. Still, the "future" of which Renteria justifiably raved isn't expected to arrive by next season (though teams do turn the corner early sometimes). The White Sox already have younger lefty thumpers on the roster in Nicky Delmonico and Daniel Palka, both of whom could be part of a corner outfield/DH/first base rotation with Abreu.
The White Sox have been insistent that the Alonso trade was all about baseball, and we should take their word on that. Still, there is this: Alonso is Machado's brother-in-law. Machado's wife, Yainee, is Alonso's sister, and the Machados live a couple of blocks from the Alonsos in Miami during the winter. Making that arrangement a year-round deal by summering in Chicago -- a beautiful place to be in the summer, by the way -- has to be a factor in Machado's thinking. How big of a factor? Only he knows that, but it's got to enter his mind.
This plays into what I see as a whole suite of soft factors that would make Chicago's South Side a comfortable place for Machado. It's a big market, but because of the disproportionate attention paid in Chicago, and nationally, to the Cubs, the spotlight on the White Sox is generally not that bright. The fan base might not be as big as that of the North Side denizens, but the White Sox have a fierce and loyal following. Their attendance dovetails with team performance, as it does in most markets, but peak White Sox teams have approached 3 million in season attendance.
In other words, in terms of balancing personal comfort with the economic opportunity of a big market and a chance to compete, the White Sox seem to be a great fit.
Guaranteed Rate Field at this point is an underrated venue. It has carried a poor reputation for years and I've criticized it at times, perhaps unfairly because some of it was probably residual feeling from how much I disliked the park when it first opened. But the park has been upgraded and beautified almost continually since then, and the game-day atmosphere is better than it used to be.
For Machado, there is nothing about new Comiskey that should scare him off. The park is an above-average venue for righty power hitters, though it's better for lefties. Machado hits a fair amount of straightaway and opposite-field dingers, and new Comiskey would fit him on those bids as well.
The White Sox lineup in the short term is really irrelevant. If all of Chicago's infield hopefuls pan out, then Machado's presence likely would open the door for some future trade. In the near term, Machado could take over at shortstop, bumping Tim Anderson to second base and Yoan Moncada to third. Eventually, Chicago would have top prospects like corner infielder Jake Burger and second baseman Nick Madrigal to account for. But they would be moved to accommodate Machado, not vice versa. A great benefit of building surplus in one position group is to leverage that to fill in gaps elsewhere through the trade market.
The point on which Machado must be clear is the very one Renteria made at the winter meetings: the future. The White Sox have quickly built one of the games' best farm systems, and with a clean future payroll prospectus, they have plenty of resources to fill in the gaps that the farm system can't. But rebuilding plans don't always come off as planned. Prospects don't always transition into big league producers.
The facts as we know them are that the White Sox lost 100 games last season and have baseball's worst winning percentage since 2013. I think Chicago is positioned to turn that around in a major way over the next few years, which means that Machado could be the face of a team ready to burst onto the contention scene and remain there for a good, long while. If that happens, and he is at the center of it, as he almost certainly would have to be given his place in the salary pecking order, he would become an icon in the city and in the history of the franchise. The White Sox have won just three titles during the 114 years of World Series play. Adding to that total would ensure somebody Windy City immortality. That somebody might as well be Machado.
But to sign on for that takes a little faith. How much does Machado believe in that which has not yet happened?
3. I suspect that if the Yankees really want Machado -- I mean really want him -- they will get him. They are the Yankees, and from Machado's standpoint, there isn't a better fit. I've approached all of this with the assumption that Machado would rather not be at the center of a heavy media crush, the kind of which is the daily routine for anyone who plays for the Yankees. I'd see that more as a preference than a deal breaker. In the Yankees' case, that's really the only downside I see for him. If he messes up, he will get questions. Lots of questions. And the askers will be aggressive about asking them.
Beyond that, if Machado wants to meld into the background, he can do that to some extent with the Yankees. They don't have names on the back of their uniforms, which symbolizes that fact. They are the richest team, the one to which the game's biggest stars have flowed for a century. Yes, Machado would be a star, but he wouldn't be THE star, not unless he really wants to be. This is Aaron Judge's team, first and foremost. If the Yankees win, that's great. They've won 27 titles and that's the expectation. But can Machado reach the pantheon of the franchise of Jeter, Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle and DiMaggio? It would not be easy. Alex Rodriguez won two MVP awards and hit 351 homers for the Yankees but he didn't get there.
Still, if the competitiveness component is the chief consideration for Machado, what team would be a better pick? Machado played in 162 regular-season games last season, between the Orioles and Dodgers. His teams won just 67 of those games, losing 95. The Yankees haven't lost 95 games since 1990 and before that, the last time it happened was when they still were called the Highlanders. Any player joining the Yankees can count on winning a lot of games during his stay there.
The new Yankee Stadium is best known as a haven for lefty sluggers, but it's also the second-friendliest homer park for righties. This isn't DiMaggio's Yankee Stadium. And, of course, the lineup protection for Machado would be ridiculous on a team coming off a season in which it hit a major-league-record 267 home runs. As mentioned, though, Machado does more than hit homers and he would help diversify the Yankees' attack in a way that would benefit him and the club alike.
You might notice that despite all of these ideal fits from Machado's perspective, I rank the Yankees third. If you think my issue here is about the team's perspective, you would be correct. Granted, Machado would make the Yankees' offense better. And he would help the defense, at least once Didi Gregorius returned and Machado could slide to third base. On the other hand, the Yankees are extremely right-handed-dominant, which is the main reason I think they should target Harper for a first-base solution.
Gregorius can be a free agent after the 2019 season, giving his rehab from Tommy John surgery a certain urgency. But assuming he makes it back and resumes his former career path, the Yankees should be able to keep him at a far more modest commitment than they'd have to give to Machado. Meanwhile, Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres are budding stars. Yes, Andujar was poor defensively at third base in 2018, but he's reportedly focused on improving in that area with his offseason program. If you look at the history of young players with scary minus defensive runs saved totals, if they are good enough to stick with their bat, those numbers tend to move toward average if the work is put in.
Not that we can expect Andujar's glove to rival Machado's defense, once elite at third base but beginning to decline, at least by DRS. (Which admittedly is not the argument-ender I wish it was.) Still, this would be normal aging for a player. Because of that, if you assume that Machado would uproot Andujar from his position, presumably bumping him to first, where the Yankees have sources of offense in Luke Voit and (possibly still) Greg Bird, then Machado's ability to upgrade the lineup is somewhat marginalized. It's significant, but $30 million per season significant? Even for the Yankees?
Well, it's probably worth it. And Machado would likely shine. At the very least, he would add even more spicy verse to the Yankees-Red Sox epic poem. None of these fits are bad. I just happen to like the Yankees-Machado fit the least.
The question as we head into the meat of the holiday season: What fit does Manny like the best?