The Indians' ongoing effort to reduce their payroll in the immediate future has been a subject of great debate, with some wondering why Cleveland's ownership would force major changes to a group that is a prohibitive favorite to win the AL Central in 2019. They ask why the Indians wouldn't look to add to Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer, rather than trading one of them, which could happen in the days ahead.
But there's more to what the Indians are doing than shedding money; they're driven by more than an effort to manage the bottom line. The Indians are also trying to better position the franchise to remain competitive, in this era of tanking, for the years after Kluber, Bauer and Francisco Lindor are with other clubs.
The Indians executed one of the most significant trades of the winter, a three-team deal with the Rays and Mariners, and through the swap of players and cash, they reduced their 2019 payroll obligations. They traded designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion, acquired Carlos Santana, sent Yandy Diaz to the Rays and got a dollop of cash, and these are the headline pieces of the deal.
But the Indians also landed Jake Bauers, who made his major league debut for the Rays last season.
Bauers hit well at the outset: After going 4-for-5 against the Nationals on June 25, his 18th game in the big leagues, he was hitting .297. The league adjusted to him, and Bauers struggled over the last three months, and he finished at .201, with a .390 slugging percentage.
But Bauers demonstrated a good feel for the strike zone in his first taste of the big leagues, swinging at pitches outside of the zone just 24.4 percent of the time. Among 247 hitters who accumulated at least 350 plate appearances in the big leagues, that ranked 35th (coincidentally, Carlos Santana ranked 34th). That ability to pick through pitches will continue to be an important building block for Bauers, who played 76 games at first base for the Rays and 20 in the outfield.
Bauers and Santana also increase the defensive functionality of the 2019 Indians. Encarnacion is strictly a designated hitter at this point, and the Indians could never find a position for Diaz. Santana might wind up getting a lot of at-bats at DH, with Yonder Alonso manning first base, and Bauers playing there if the Indians move Alonso. But Santana is fine at first base, if necessary.
Through their push to win in 2016 and 2017, and deals like the move for Andrew Miller, the top of the Indians' farm system thinned. What they have aimed to do this winter is to improve the organization's layer of talent underneath Lindor, and Bauers now becomes an important part of that. Whatever they get in return for Kluber or Bauer will become part of that.
At this stage, Cleveland seems like a lock to win the division in 2019, behind what should be at least a solid rotation of Kluber or Bauer, plus Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber. But through the signing of Carrasco to an extension, the Indians can now project a rotation core in 2022 of Carrasco, Clevinger and Bieber, which should be good enough to compete, as division rivals like the White Sox and Tigers improve.
The practice of tanking has become increasingly popular among MLB teams, with some executives working under the belief that they should either be all in or all out. If the Indians can make the right decisions and successfully pick the right prospects in trades, they may be able to avoid that sort of quandary.
There are more difficult choices along the way, most notably with Lindor, who has already turned down a $100 million offer from the Indians, in the spring of 2017. After Manny Machado and Bryce Harper sign, and presumably raise the ceiling for what's possible for a superstar free agent, the lure of the open market will grow for Lindor. After the 2019 season, the Indians will come face-to-face with this reality: If they don't trade Lindor before he reaches free agency after the 2021 season, he'll walk away. Next winter, they might have to consider Lindor trade proposals.
Over the past six seasons, they've averaged 90 victories a year, reached the playoffs four times and played to Game 7 of the World Series in 2016. If they can develop or add through trades players like Bauers, the Indians can continue to win, and that's a future they're trying to shape this winter, beneath the budget managing.