The Rangers fell to 67-95 and last place in the AL West last year for many reasons, but their run prevention was a huge one. They allowed 848 runs, tied for second-most in the AL, because they allowed the second-most homers and struck out fewer opposing batters than any other AL team. Their depth chart prior to the winter meetings included exactly one starter who made even 10 starts last year, and that guy, Mike Minor, just finished his first season as a major-league starter since 2014. Adding any starters, even mediocre ones, with the potential to make 25-30 starts was obligatory if the Rangers wanted to survive the 2019 season. They went further than that and added one of the best starters on the market in Lance Lynn, signing him to a reported three-year, $30 million deal, a surprisingly low annual salary given what he showed at the end of 2018.
Lynn missed 2016 after Tommy John surgery and returned quickly to make 33 starts in 2017 and 29 more last year, but his potential value was masked by a terrible stretch by the Twins to start last season. After the Yankees acquired Lynn in a trade, he returned to his previous pitching plan, going up with his four-seamer more, and all of his results were better. By Baseball-Reference's WAR, which is based on runs allowed, he generated twice the value in two months for the Yankees that he did in four months for the Twins. Given that performance and his 3-WAR year in 2017, Lynn should be an easy projection for 30 or so starts and at least two wins of value per year on the contract, which might make him the Rangers' best starter this season.
At $10 million per year, that kind of production would make Lynn a bargain for any team, even a non-contending one. That in turn would give the Rangers a very tradeable asset come July or next offseason if they aren't contending in that span -- a scenario I think is likely, given where the Astros sit, Oakland's success last season and an Angels club that continues to push to make the playoffs while it still has noted Eagles fan Mike Trout under contract.
Meanwhile, the Reds have been signaling their intention to try to contend in 2019, but the trade for Tanner Roark is their first real move in that direction. Cincinnati's depth chart wasn't much prettier than the Rangers'. The Reds returned just one starter, Luis Castillo, who was worth even 1 WAR last year (1.6 in Castillo's case), and the guy who made the second-most starts for them, Sal Romano, is probably better suited to a bullpen role.
Roark might make $10 million as a third-year arbitration player, but he's probably worth twice that in both an analytical sense and an arbitration one. He enters 2019 with 935 career innings pitched and a 3.59 ERA. Dallas Keuchel entered his last year of arbitration, 2018, with a 3.65 ERA in 984.2 innings and earned $13.2 million. Jake Arrieta came off his Cy Young Award-winning year with a 3.58 ERA in 992 innings (and some "broken service," meaning his MLB time wasn't contiguous, which can count against a player) and took in $15.6 million. Roark probably should be asking for a lot more than the $10 million figure projected by MLB Trade Rumors, and the Reds should be willing to pay it because he's that good, averaging almost 3 WAR per season even as his role has been inconsistent.
Roark is also the first thing the Reds needed if they want to have any hope of contending in a strong NL Central in which all five teams might be going for it in 2019. The Reds allowed the most runs of any NL team last season, including the most home runs, and you can blame only some of that on the ballpark. They needed starters -- not just guys to provide innings, as Texas did, but guys who can provide quality innings. Roark has fewer than 5 1/2 seasons in the majors and generated 17.2 WAR, never turning in a season below replacement level. He made 30 starts four times, falling short only when Washington used him as a swingman in 2015. He's good and affordable -- exactly what the Reds needed.
The Nats had to trade Roark to clear his salary to sign someone else, but now they need a fourth starter to go between the big three of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin and No. 5 Joe Ross. They do get a pitcher in return, Tanner Rainey, maintaining Tanner equilibrium on both sides of the trade membrane. Rainey throws hard with a power slider and poor control; his brief major league tenure last season was disastrous, as he allowed 19 runs in seven innings, thanks to 12 walks and four homers. There's stuff here for a good major league reliever, but Rainey has to cut out the Jason Neighborgall impression for that to happen.