George Springer isn't eligible for free agency for another two years, Carlos Correa three and Alex Bregman four. With the 28-year-old Jose Altuve locked into a long-term deal, the core of the Houston Astros, the best team in the AL West, will remain intact through 2020, at least.
The Oakland Athletics are built around young players as well, and if they actually break ground on their proposed ballpark, they would have more incentive to keep their best guys, rather than churn them out in trade. The state of the Los Angeles Angels' organization is improving, slowly, and they have Mike Trout, so they're always a few moves away.
The timing is exactly right, then, for the Seattle Mariners to tank or rebuild or whatever you want to call it. And by trading his best players, general manager Jerry Dipoto is well on his way to restocking what has been one of baseball's thinnest farm systems. Since the end of the World Series, Seattle has off-loaded catcher Mike Zunino, ace James Paxton, All-Star closer Edwin Diaz and Hall of Fame candidate Robinson Cano.
Presumably, there are many more deals to come for Dipoto, who is to baseball transactions what Wayne Gretzky was to goal-scoring. Evaluators with other teams expect that given the Mariners' devotion to dumping Cano -- eating $20 million and taking on the contracts of outfielder Jay Bruce and reliever Anthony Swarzak -- Seattle will do whatever it takes to trade its most expensive remaining player, Kyle Seager.
The third baseman is 31 years old, coming off a season in which he had a .673 OPS and is owed about $60 million over the next three years. Among Dipoto's options would be to eat enough dollars to trade him, or swap him for somebody else's bad contract while saving some money. Or Dipoto could do what he did with Cano: He could attach Seager to one of his most attractive assets -- either outfielder Mitch Haniger or infielder Jean Segura, whose contract is viewed as team-friendly by some rival evaluators.
Segura, 28, will make about $60 million over the next four seasons. Last year, he batted .304, with 178 hits and 32 walks, and based on his experience, any interested team could consider him at second base or shortstop. No wonder that the San Diego Padres and Mariners had some conversations about whether they might have a match in a deal of Seager, Segura, Wil Myers and prospects. Segura would fit with the Philadelphia Phillies, of course, and with the New York Yankees, and both of those teams have possible bad contract matches to offset Seager -- Carlos Santana for the Phillies, and Jacoby Ellsbury for the Yankees.
The contract that pays Felix Hernandez about $25 million a year is set to expire after next season, assuming (safely) that the Mariners won't pick up the option on his deal. If Dipoto mitigates the financial obligations to Segura and Seager, the Mariners will have almost no long-term payroll obligations beyond 2020 -- while adding more prospects to Jarred Kelenic, Justus Sheffield and others who will become part of what is one of the better farm systems in baseball.
By the end of this winter, the Mariners could be right where the Phillies were in 2015-2016 as they went through their tanking/rebuilding cycle -- and then the hard part begins. As the Phillies know from their experience with Maikel Franco and J.P. Crawford, and as the Chicago White Sox are know from the injury to Michael Kopech and the struggles of other young players, not everything goes as planned. Tearing down your organization does not guarantee that you'll win a championship the way the Cubs did in 2016 or the Astros did in 2017.
But because the Mariners appear poised to slash their payroll as deeply as Dipoto is able, they will make a lot of money in the next few years, even if their attendance dips from where it is now. And by 2021 or 2022, when the best of the Astros and Athletics and Trout all reach the downslope of their respective careers, the Mariners could be ready to rise.
Perhaps. If all goes well.