The 10 most important matchups in the World Series:
1. Dodgers Outfielders vs. the Weirdness of Fenway Park
The pivotal catch Chris Taylor made in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series would not have been possible in Fenway Park because of the Green Monster; no left fielder can sprint away from home plate to make a catch without winding up in concussion protocol.
Center field is strange, too, with the triangle, the jagged corner of the bullpen and the low wall that has a history of breaking outfielders, as Carlos Beltran can testify to. Right field is enormous, with the greatest space of any right field area in the American League, and danger lurks at the base of the Pesky Pole down the line: If the right fielder does not properly cut the ball off, it can hug the wall behind him and curl around the right-field corner as the hitter races around the bases.
Yasiel Puig has never played in Fenway Park. Neither has Cody Bellinger, nor Joc Pederson. Taylor became a superutility player after he left the Mariners organization and greeted the Monster as an outfielder for the first time here Monday night. It's very possible the L.A. outfielders can defend without major incident in the Fenway games in this series, but there is tremendous potential for disaster because experience is so important to play in this park, and the Dodgers simply don't have any among those most likely to be in the lineup.
2. The Pitchers vs. the Boston Weather
In this era of advanced metrics, pitchers are encouraged to throw their best pitch more often, and for many, that means more breaking stuff -- more curveballs, more sliders. Rich Hill revitalized his career by refining his curveball and throwing it over and over.
But the conditions under which pitchers will work in Games 1 and 2 will be the absolute worst for anyone attempting to spin a breaking ball: According to the AccuWeather forecast, it'll feel like it's 41 degrees by first pitch Tuesday night and 36 degrees on Wednesday. Getting the proper grip will be difficult (and let's end the suspense right now -- pitchers will be using foreign substances, and yes, everybody will know it). Hill grew up just outside Boston, so throwing curveballs in the cold is something he's done just about his whole life. Clayton Kershaw, on the other hand, grew up in the Dallas area and pitches his home games in the near-perfect conditions of L.A. Florida product Chris Sale will try to execute his slider in the cold, as he did with the White Sox.
3. Alex Cora vs. the National League Rules
The Dodgers will add a designated hitter for the games in Fenway Park, an extra bat like Matt Kemp, with little disruption. But Cora will face some hard choices for the games played in Los Angeles, where the Red Sox will lose the DH. Cora acknowledged it's possible former infielder Mookie Betts could play second base for the games in L.A., but to make that happen, Cora would compromise his defense in two big spots -- he'd lose the glove work of the experienced Ian Kinsler or Brock Holt, and he'd sacrifice the exceptional play of Betts in right field, where he led all outfielders in defensive runs saved in 2018.
If Cora keeps Betts in right field, he'll start J.D. Martinez in left and then has to pick between Andrew Benintendi, who has been his No. 2 hitter and made the game-saving catch in Game 4 of the AL Championship Series, and Jackie Bradley Jr., a superlative defender who just won the MVP award for the ALCS. Benching either of those players would be difficult for Cora, who resolutely stands by his guys.
One thing about Betts possibly playing second: Since the rules were changed to protect the middle infielders from takeout slides, turning a double play is not nearly as problematic as it used to be. Betts takes ground balls in the infield regularly and probably would be OK on defense.
By the way: Cora should be at ease navigating his way through the National League rules -- the double-switches, etc. -- given his long history in that league and given the presence of Red Sox bench coach Ron Roenicke, who can lend informed advice after managing the Brewers for many years.
4. Chris Sale vs. Whatever Ails Him
Players and teams are not required to detail their injuries and ailments, and we are not required to believe what they tell us. When Sale was asked about his hospital stay the other day, he blamed it on an irritated belly-button ring, delivering the line with a straight face.
The guess here is that because of his shoulder problem -- whatever that is -- he might be taking some sort of medication to get through his starts, and that may have bothered his stomach. That's what some Astros assumed, and while they admired Sale's competitiveness in his Game 1 start against them, they were taken aback by the regression in a pitcher who had always had the pure stuff to dominate hitters.
Presumably, Sale will be compromised again in his Game 1 start and try to fight his way through. After the World Series is over, we might all learn what exactly has bothered him. It's probably not the belly-button ring.
5. Dave Roberts vs. the Crossroad Move
With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, we can say that the 2017 World Series probably started to get away from the Dodgers when Roberts lifted Rich Hill after four strong innings in Game 2. The lefty had thrown well and L.A. trailed by only a run, but Roberts bore enormous trust in his bullpen and called on Kenta Maeda. By the end of the night, the Dodgers had used eight relievers, and by the end of the World Series, L.A.'s bullpen was exhausted.
Roberts is armed with pitching plans scripted by the Dodgers' front office before every game, and he very well might be just as aggressive with his bullpen this time around. Think about this: Eight Dodgers pitchers worked in four or more games in the NLCS. Eight. The new-world front offices believe there is an advantage in forcing hitters to assess a new (and fresher) pitcher as often as possible.
6. The Bottom Third of the Boston Lineup vs. the L.A. Lefties
The Yankees' pitching staff that Boston faced in the first round of the playoffs was mostly right-handed, and the same was true with Houston; Dallas Keuchel was the only lefty in the Astros' rotation, and Tony Sipp was the only left-handed reliever.
The Dodgers are loaded with left-handers: Kershaw, Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Alex Wood, Scott Alexander, Julio Urias. And the bottom of the Boston lineup, which was difference-making against the Astros, has really struggled against lefties this year.
During the regular season, Bradley batted .185 vs. lefties, with two homers in 119 at-bats. Third baseman Rafael Devers hit .229, with a .272 OBP. Sandy Leon was almost powerless -- 11 hits in 72 at-bats and just one homer. The right-handed-hitting Kinsler was entirely powerless against lefties for the Red Sox: He went 6-for-36 with no homers against them.
Holt hit better against lefties than Kinsler, albeit without power, batting .292/.395/.323, and there might be a case for Cora to go with Holt. But Holt does a lot of his best work against high velocity, and he's more likely to see a ton of breaking stuff from Kershaw, Hill and the other L.A. lefties.
7. Manny Machado vs. the Haters
Red Sox fans will undoubtedly take the baton from Brewers fans, who targeted Machado with boos after he seemed to go out of his way to kick Milwaukee first baseman Jesus Aguilar. But Boston fans have their own special history with Machado, whose slide into Dustin Pedroia early in the 2017 season may have effectively ended Pedroia's time as an everyday big leaguer. Pedroia has never been the same, and moving forward, it's unclear whether he can recover.
Machado seemed at peace with the fans' response during the NLCS, and he probably won't be bothered by what he hears in Fenway Park, where he has done OK in his career. In 49 games in Boston, all with the Orioles, Machado hit .278, with a .315 OBP, 15 doubles and eight homers.
8. The Dodgers vs. the Big Doubt
You can look back at the great 2017 World Series and identify so many moments when the Dodgers might've forged a path to the championship. Roberts' bullpen decision in Game 2; Marwin Gonzalez's game-tying home run off Kenley Jansen in Game 2; Kershaw's rough performance in Game 5, when he repeatedly blew Dodgers leads.
Then there was Yu Darvish's incredibly shaky outing in Game 7, when he seemed so unsure of himself -- sources say that in the hours leading up to that game, he asked if the Dodgers staff might prefer to go with Kershaw, an earnest, respectful and honest question that nonetheless reflected doubt.
And if the Dodgers struggle at the outset of this series, you wonder how doubt might become a factor again.
9. Walker Buehler and Craig Kimbrel vs. World Series Adrenaline
Both pitchers can dominate hitters with their exceptional repertoires -- as long as they contain the emotion of the moment. Like so many great pitchers of the past, from Roger Clemens to CC Sabathia, Buehler might need multiple reps through October to become fully at ease. He's gradually improved through his three outings this month -- in his most recent, Game 7 in Milwaukee, he allowed one run in 4⅔ innings, walking none and striking out seven.
The Red Sox fully embraced the notion that Kimbrel was tipping pitches earlier in the postseason, comfortably blaming that problem for some of his results this October. But pitch-tipping would not really explain why he was struggling so much with his control. Like Buehler, Kimbrel was much better in his most recent outing, as he closed out the Astros in the pennant-clinching Game 5 -- and he can draw comfort in the fact that despite his tense outings, he is five-for-five in save chances this October; his last blown save was Aug. 28. Cora trusts him to get the job done.
10. Kershaw vs. J.D. Martinez
The sample sizes of data on hitter vs. pitcher matchups are usually so small that we shouldn't draw much inference from them, but a lot of hitters and pitchers will tell you they clearly remember good and bad moments, and they draw upon those experiences, and perhaps extract some additional insight or confidence. Martinez has a limited history against Kershaw, but in his 11 at-bats against the future Hall of Famer, he's done big damage, with a couple of home runs among five hits, including a blast in last year's playoffs.
Kershaw is a different pitcher this year from what Martinez has seen in the past, with less velocity and a greater reliance on the breaking ball. But Martinez will go into this game probably feeling he can see the ball well against Kershaw.