Nobody wants to lose in the League Championship Series round. Losing in the LCS is all the more painful because you're so close to winning the pennant, which would bring you so close to winning the World Series. For the Houston Astros, they can look at the ALCS and wonder why a roster that looked so good on paper was knocked out in five games. For the Milwaukee Brewers, there's nothing worse than losing a Game 7.
But what's done is done. For teams and their fans alike, it's time to turn the page and think about what's ahead. The goal is to get back at least as far next season. It's time to plan for how these teams can make that happen.
Once you get over the heartbreak of playoff elimination, the offseason is its own kind of fun. You don't even have to think of it as the offseason, so much -- it's just a different sort of baseball season, a baseball season without games, but dozens of significant decisions. What happens over the following few months will go a long way toward determining how things play out on the field next year. Let's lay out the offseasons for the Astros and Brewers with an outline of where things stand, along with a few suggested transactions.
Houston Astros
This won't surprise you, but the Astros are already set up pretty well for 2019. They just fielded one of the best teams in baseball, the organization has what is considered a top-five farm system, and many of the best players on the roster are fairly young and cost controlled. If the Astros didn't do a thing, they'd still be the favorite to win next year's AL West. And it's not like they're going to be inactive in the offseason.
The major pending free agents include starting pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton, super-utilityman Marwin Gonzalez, catchers Brian McCann and Martin Maldonado, reliever Tony Sipp and DH Evan Gattis. That takes a chunk out of the Astros' rotation, and it depletes their depth behind the plate. Sipp has also been the primary lefty reliever. So free agency is going to take some kind of toll.
But it need not be so bad. One thing the Astros might be able to do pretty easily is re-sign Morton. Morton has already expressed enthusiasm about the idea of returning, and if he wants more than the one-year qualifying offer, the Astros would likely be able to re-sign him to a two-year deal. Morton is no one's picture of durable, but since arriving in Houston he's been an incredible value.
The big splash the Astros could be set up for is a trade with the Miami Marlins for catcher J.T. Realmuto. The Marlins might still balk at the idea of trading their best player, but assuming they come to realize Realmuto won't sign an extension, it would make sense for them to test the market, and the Astros have the need and the resources. The trade would presumably include either Max Stassi or Garrett Stubbs, and it would require plenty more beyond that, but Realmuto might be the best catcher in the game. He'd complete an unbelievable Astros infield.
Since the Astros are likely to have short-term financial flexibility, there's another high-profile move they could make. Reliever Andrew Miller is hitting the free-agent market at the wrong time, coming off a disappointing and injury-marred 2018. He's still going to get a healthy guaranteed payday, but it won't come close to what he would have gotten had he been a free agent a year ago. The Astros could offer Miller a pricy one-year deal with a second-year vesting option around the same salary. If need be, they could extend a year. Miller would help in taking some of the load off a weaker rotation, and he'd land in an excellent spot to return to the playoffs.
There's one more big thing the Astros should think about: signing Alex Bregman to a long-term contract extension. Bregman is nowhere close to becoming a free agent, but he loves Houston and Houston loves him, and there's a chance here to agree to a long-term deal with Bregman coming off a breakout campaign. From the Astros' perspective, there's value in trying to lock Bregman up before he has a repeat of his 2018. And from Bregman's perspective, there's value in long-term certainty and signing a potential nine-figure contract. The Astros have an impressive core of talent -- they might as well try to keep more of it around.
For whatever is left, the Astros could handle it internally. The Astros could easily emerge from this offseason as the consensus best team in baseball.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers played much of the season as an underdog, and given that, you might think they're not so likely to return to the playoffs next year. The conversation all October, after all, revolved around how they don't have good starting pitchers -- something any contending team needs during the regular season. So the Brewers have work to do.
But remember they already made their biggest moves last offseason, when they acquired Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, who are their two best players. And there's a major wild card here in the return of starting pitcher Jimmy Nelson. Before getting hurt and undergoing surgery, Nelson had blossomed into one of the better starters around. If he's close to 100 percent in 2019, the Brewers will have an ace again.
The Brewers' major pending free agents are veteran left-handers Gio Gonzalez and Wade Miley, third baseman Mike Moustakas, outfielder Curtis Granderson and presumably relief pitcher Joakim Soria. These are all players who belong on big league rosters and delivered in big moments for the Brewers in 2018, but should they depart, they would be survivable losses.
The Brewers have potential weaknesses behind the plate and in the rotation. They should have sufficient flexibility to make a splash or two, but the rotation does seem more critical, given the question marks about Nelson. So as the Brewers look for starters, perhaps their first call should be to the Seattle Mariners, to explore their willingness to move James Paxton. That might be a nonstarter, but the Mariners might not have yet determined their direction, and Paxton would instantly become Milwaukee's fallback ace. Paxton and Nelson together would put the Brewers in an enviable spot.
If Paxton isn't attainable, the Brewers could move on to calling the New York Mets to see if they're willing to talk about Noah Syndergaard. The Mets have their own questions to figure out, but they could move Syndergaard without completely torching their own rotation. And Syndergaard would do for the Brewers exactly what Paxton would. Syndergaard, for whatever it's worth, has three more years of club control, while Paxton has two.
The Brewers should try to figure out whether they can do anything with the Mariners or Mets quickly, because if they can't get Paxton or Syndergaard, they should pursue Yusei Kikuchi, a 27-year-old lefty starter out of Japan. Kikuchi is going to be posted this offseason sometime within the first month or so, and while he doesn't have so much strikeout upside, he could be for the Brewers what Miles Mikolas was for the St. Louis Cardinals.
As far as catching goes, the Brewers could conceivably put their resources toward pursuing Realmuto as well. But if they determine the rotation is a higher priority, there are two free-agent catchers worth considering: Yasmani Grandal and Tyler Flowers. Grandal has so far had a mostly brutal postseason, but he's a quality hitter who also does a great job of managing the strike zone. Flowers is a lesser, cheaper variety, a strong defensive backstop who could supply some power over 90-100 games. Either player would lengthen the Brewers' lineup, and there would still be room for Manny Pina as a reserve.
The Brewers don't need to do much else. The top of the bullpen is in good shape. Orlando Arcia's second half might have been good enough for the team to feel settled at shortstop. If Jonathan Schoop continues to struggle next year (if he's tendered a contract), he could give way to top prospect Keston Hiura at second base. It's still a little unclear how guys like Domingo Santana and Eric Thames fit in, but they're both easily tradable should the Brewers prefer to add depth elsewhere. One way or another, the 2019 Brewers should be right back in the race, and it's clear which areas they need to improve.