The American League Championship Series is set, and it's a doozy.
Most combined wins, postseason series:
212
Yankees vs. Padres, 1998 World Series
211
Yankees vs. Mariners, 2001 ALCS
Red Sox vs. Astros, 2018 ALCS
210
Orioles vs. Reds, 1970 World Series
209
Cubs vs. White Sox, 1906 World Series
Yankees vs. Cardinals, 1942 World Series
Orioles vs. Mets, 1969 World Series
Just a couple of more wins here or there by the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros during the season and this would be the most high-powered postseason matchup in baseball history. It might be the most high-powered matchup, anyway, because much of the heavy lifting in that Padres-Yankees series was done by the 114-win Bombers, the club some see as the best team ever. Here we have two teams that flew past the 100-win mark.
The division-series round was almost NBA-like, with home-field advantage holding true in all four series. Thus we've got the top two seeds in each circuit vying for the right to meet in the Fall Classic. Unlike the division series, however, the favorites in both championship series matchups are the lower seeds, at least as far as Vegas is concerned. It's no surprise that the longtime power Los Angeles Dodgers would be favored to beat the nouveau riche Milwaukee Brewers. But it's also true on the AL side of things, where the defending champion Astros are favored over a Red Sox club that raced to a franchise-record 108 wins during the regular season.
Some key matchups in this clash of titans:
ALCS vs. World Series
The World Series is never anticlimactic, no matter who is in it. You can argue with me on that point from here to eternity and I'll never relent. Still, for months now, there has been a sharp contrast between the leagues. While a gaggle of teams scrapped in the tightly bunched National League, all better than mediocre but all a bit less than elite, the American League was as top-heavy as any league has been in decades.
The teams most responsible for that were the Astros and Red Sox, joined in that elite tier by the Oakland Athletics, New York Yankees and Cleveland Indians. Houston ranked No. 1 in my power rating system for all but three weeks from spring training until now. The team that usurped the Astros' throne for a bit? Boston, of course. The ALCS is not the World Series, but this year's edition is a pairing of the two best teams in baseball over the course of the season.
AJ Hinch vs. Alex Cora
You might call this an Obi-Wan Kenobi vs. Darth Vader duel, but Hinch lacks Obi-Wan's superior beard game, and Alex Cora is way too nice to be compared to Darth Vader. Nevertheless, this is a meeting between master and apprentice: Cora was Hinch's bench coach last season when Houston won its first title. Both appear to be skippers worthy of the Jedi order. (I work for Disney, so I get to work these "Star Wars" references to death.)
This might be as much roster-related as it is managerial proclivity, but there are a lot of similarities in the way the Astros and Red Sox go about things on offense. Both operate in a saber-friendly way, with an emphasis on plate discipline. Both hit plenty of homers, though Houston has an advantage in that department.
More than that, both clubs mix in plenty of traditional strengths, with lineups full of hitters who can actually get wood on the ball consistently, and get plenty of mileage out of balls in play that don't actually leave the ballpark. The Red Sox steal more bases, but both teams are aggressive and athletic on the basepaths. These extra layers help set these attacks apart from the three-true-outcomes offenses that have proliferated across baseball, including those of the Dodgers and Brewers.
The key thing to watch from a managerial standpoint will be how long Hinch and Cora let their starters ride. Both clubs lean heavily on outstanding starting rotations. Both clubs have very good bullpens as well, so it will be a delicate dance when deciding whether to pull the likes of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Chris Sale and David Price.
Run differential vs. actual record
As mentioned, the Red Sox won a franchise-record 108 games this season, five more than the Astros, and secured the top seed in the AL bracket with plenty of room to spare. Yet Houston is favored. This is probably a big reason why:
2018 run differential
1. Astros, +263
2. Red Sox, +229
3. Dodgers, +194
4. Yankees, +182
Run differential, adjusted for schedule, is just one component of my power ranking formula, but it is a key driver in the fact that I ranked Houston ahead of Boston for virtually the entire season. That power-ranking formula gives the Astros a 64 percent shot at beating Boston, even without home-field advantage.
Houston's run differential ranks 19th in big league history and was the biggest number we've had since the 2001 Mariners, who won a record 116 games. The Astros' Pythagorean record (their expected record based on run differential) was 109-53, compared to Boston's expected mark of 103-59. It's an almost perfect reversal of the portrait painted by the teams' actual records.
Bregman vs. Betts
In reading the postseason awards picks by other analysts in the industry, I felt like Houston's Alex Bregman got a little shortchanged. Of course, that's probably because I created an awards index formula that told me that Bregman was the second-best player in the American League this season. He deserves more MVP support than I expect he's going to get when the actual voting results are announced. (For the record, I did not vote on any awards this season.)
Where the voting consensus and the awards index seem to align is the No. 1 spot in the AL MVP race. That would be the spot occupied by Boston's two-way dynamo, Mookie Betts, who put up a season for the ages. The ballots already have been cast, so nothing Bregman can do from here on out can affect his vote total. But this is his chance to validate the awards index, and I hope he does the right thing.
The awards index leaderboard includes many players in this series. Beyond Betts and Bregman, Boston's J.D. Martinez ranked in the top 10 among all players. Chris Sale and Justin Verlander were top Cy Young candidates. This is a series laden with star power.
Ax vs. ax
I'm plagiarizing myself by reusing this, and it probably has no impact on the series' competitiveness, but Betts and Houston's George Springer are the most prominent users of the ax-handle bat. In fact, it was Betts' success with the slanty-knobbed timber that led Springer to try it. I like bats, and these are different enough that they merit attention. The ax-handle design is meant to help speed the bat through the zone while protecting the hamate bone. For these two, the design has done its work very nicely.
Next up on the bat front: I'm waiting for a slugger to combat a shift by lugging to the plate a big, heavy, thick-handled bat straight from the silent film days in order to punch one through the void of an ill-shaped defense, like a neo-George Sisler.
Back-heavy bullpen vs. balanced bullpen
As mentioned, both teams have strong bullpens, but they are set up a little differently. Boston's nightly task is to bridge the gap between the starter and ace closer Craig Kimbrel, one of the all-time greats. That remains true, even though Kimbrel was a little less dominant this year. Kimbrel recorded 42 of Boston's 46 saves during the season.
Houston's bullpen is more egalitarian. Six relievers logged two or more saves, and no one saved more than 15. The leader, Hector Rondon, didn't even make Houston's division-series roster.
That said, there are a couple of common traits between the postseason bullpens of these clubs. Both managers have proven to be willing to deploy starting pitchers in relief roles. And both teams have righty-dominant bullpen compositions.
Sale vs. Verlander
If Sale had not battled shoulder issues for most of the second half of the season, we might be looking at Game 1 as a matchup between the AL's top two Cy Young candidates. It's not far from that anyway. Sale is still trying to overcome a little bit of a hairy postseason record, with a 6.60 ERA over 15 innings.
Verlander, on the other hand, is a proven postseason stud. He's 12-6 with a 3.08 ERA and has logged 140 postseason innings. He posted a 0.56 ERA in two starts during last season's ALCS against New York and was named MVP of the series.
This is Sale's best opportunity yet to rewrite his postseason narrative.
J.D. vs. the revenge impulse
J.D. Martinez was a 20th-round draft pick by the Astros in 2009. By 2011, he had risen to the big leagues, making his debut with Houston on June 30 of that season. Among his teammates that day was fellow rookie Jose Altuve. The game was at Milwaukee and the duo accounted for both runs in a 6-2 Astros loss. Altuve singled and scored as pinch hitter in the sixth. In the eighth, Martinez's first career at-bat took place, and it was also in a pinch-hit role. He laced an RBI double off the Brewers' Marco Estrada.
A little more than three years later, the Astros released Martinez. Didn't trade him, just flat-out let him go.
Astros GM Jeff Luhnow told MLB.com at the time, "To a certain extent, we're a victim of our own success. As we continue to develop young talent, we're going to end up not having room for some players who fit in in the past and could fit in with other clubs. We wish him the best. We still think he's a major league player. It's just not a fit for our club right now."
Chances are if Luhnow had known what Martinez was going to become, he would have made him fit somehow. Then again, if he hadn't been released, perhaps Martinez would not have been motivated to make the career-changing alterations that have made him one of the game's most feared hitters.
The Astros obviously have done quite well without Martinez's help, so you can't say the move came back to haunt them. But will we be able to say the same thing after the ALCS plays out?
Boston thieves vs. Martin Maldonado
The Red Sox finished third in the majors with 125 stolen bases this season, Boston's most since 2009 and its second most since the dead ball era. Cora spread it around, with Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. all stealing between 17 and 30 bases. But seven other BoSox recorded five or more thefts.
If the pitching is as good as it is expected to be in the ALCS, one-run strategies could come into play more often than you might think, given the strength of the respective offenses. We're not talking Royals-Cardinals, circa 1985, but more like a soupçon of small ball.
Enter Martin Maldonado, the light-hitting catcher Houston acquired from the Angels during the season. Maldonado is a two-time Gold Glove backstop who has thrown out 38 percent of opposing baserunners over his career. He led the league with 48 percent this season. During his time with the Astros, teams stole just three bases in eight attempts during Maldonado's 294⅔ innings behind the plate.
Astros' shifts vs. Red Sox's hitters
Here is another difference between Hinch and Cora. The Astros shifted on 37.3 percent of opposing plate appearances, according to baseballsavant.com. That was the most in baseball, with Houston shifting 7.3 percent more often than second-place Tampa Bay. Boston ranked 17th in this category, shifting 15.9 percent of the time.
Boston has several hitters who were shifted against more often than the big league average of 17.4 percent. They are: Mitch Moreland, Bradley, Blake Swihart (not likely to be on the ALCS roster), Sandy Leon, Martinez, Benintendi, Ian Kinsler and Steve Pearce.
The rub for Houston is that, for them, quantity of shifts hasn't really translated to quality of shifts. According to Baseball Info Solutions, the Astros saved a grand total of five runs with shifts during the season. Boston, despite being judicious with shift alignments, saved 16.
Again, with the quality of the pitching on both sides, every little edge counts when it comes to scratching out runs. Can the Astros get their defenders in the right place at the right time?