ATLANTA -- After wrapping up an impressive 3-1 series victory over the Atlanta Braves on Monday, the Los Angeles Dodgers have earned a little rest. So, too, have the Milwaukee Brewers, who finished a three-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies on Sunday.
The National League Championship Series begins Friday in Milwaukee, so we have plenty of time to dissect this terrific matchup. The Dodgers will enter the series as heavy favorites, both in terms of the oddsmakers and by the metrics. My system gives the Dodgers a 63 percent chance to dispatch the Brewers, even though Milwaukee owns the home-field edge.
Still, this is a compelling matchup that is a lot more even than it seems through the prism of cold, hard metrics. For one thing, there is the recency factor. The Dodgers and Brewers enter their showdown as two of the hottest teams in baseball.
Milwaukee has won 11 straight, including the season-ending usurpation of the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. The Brewers have drubbed opponents to an 80-34 tune in that stretch. Meanwhile, the Dodgers appear to finally be playing up to preseason expectations after a season of fits and starts. Los Angeles has won seven of eight and outscored opponents 47-15 during its run.
Something has got to give, and let's hope it's the blowout trend. We need some high drama on the NL side of the postseason landscape.
On the offensive side of the ledger, the Dodgers and Brewers are very similar. In terms of park-adjusted run scoring, the Dodgers led the National League, while the Brewers finished third. The teams have scored their runs in similar fashion. Only two teams in baseball had a higher percentage of three-true-outcome (strikeout, walk or home run) plate appearances than L.A. The Brewers ranked sixth by that measure. Milwaukee ranked third in the percentage of runs scored via the home run; Los Angeles ranked ninth.
Where the teams differ is on the run prevention side. Milwaukee relies on a deep bullpen and asks little more than five innings of its starters -- even less than that during the postseason. The Brewers took Game 1 against Colorado without using a starter at all, instead using "out-getter" Brandon Woodruff for three innings as an opener.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers rely on the traditional rotation that carried them to the win over the Braves. While the Brewers announced that the haughty honor of a Game 1 playoff start would go to a reliever, Los Angeles was quaking with the news that Hyun-Jin Ryu would throw in the division series before longtime ace Clayton Kershaw.
Again, we have a few days to burrow into the NLCS, but as a teaser, let's look at a few key matchups to watch.
Battle of the bullpens
You'll be hearing a lot about this over the next few days because this is the one area in which Milwaukee seemingly has a clear edge over the Dodgers. And we all know how crucial bullpen performance is during the playoffs.
During the regular season, the Brewers finished fourth in the majors with 7.1 WAR from their relievers, according to FanGraphs; the Dodgers ranked 16th (3.1). It's a similar story by win probability added: Milwaukee ranked fifth and L.A. 14th.
While Milwaukee's bullpen was a key factor throughout the season, the Dodgers struggled to get their relief core firing on all cylinders. At various times, either closer Kenley Jansen or the rest of the pen was struggling. Sometimes it was both.
However, the current gap between these groups might not be that stark. Lately, both bullpens have been hot. Over the last 30 days of the season, the Brewers led baseball in bullpen win probability added, and the Dodgers ranked fourth.
Still, when you look at individuals, this area seems like a big advantage for Milwaukee. Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress and Joakim Soria all ranked among the top 15 relievers this season by fWAR, and since he returned from a minor league stint in late August, Corey Knebel has been better than any of them.
Battle of the benches
A lot is made of the Dodgers' bench -- and for good reason. It isn't really a bench anyway. L.A. has two lineup fixtures in Manny Machado and Justin Turner. After that, assuming an NLCS roster with 13 position players, there are 11 regulars who share the other seven positions. That's how talented this group is.
But don't sleep on the Brewers' depth, either. Since Milwaukee added infielders Mike Moustakas and Jonathan Schoop during the season, the Brewers have operated in a very Dodgers-like fashion. The depth is good enough that Eric Thames, who has been a big producer at various times over the past two seasons, didn't make Milwaukee's division series roster. He has little chance of making the NLCS roster either.
In fact, the Brewers face a quandary in putting together the 25-man group to face the Dodgers. Milwaukee went with a 14-hitter, 11-pitcher split against the Rockies. These days, teams that do that typically pivot to a 13/12 split for the best-of-seven championship series.
You have to figure the Brewers will hold to that convention. For one thing, with a smaller staff for the previous round, they had to leave quality lefty reliever Xavier Cedeno off the roster. He would be a big help in late-inning matchup situations against Los Angeles.
To clear a spot for Cedeno, the Brewers would likely have to choose between righty-hitting reserve outfielders Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton. But both provide skill sets that would come in handy against the Dodgers. Santana is a masher who has been a productive pinch hitter the past few weeks. Meanwhile, the athletic Broxton is a dynamic defender. Plus, he is Milwaukee's best pinch-running option, and the Brewers have an OBR-E* runner in Jesus Aguilar.
(*: This is an obscure board-game reference. In Statis-Pro Baseball, a defunct game from the 1970s and '80s, runners were rated from A to E. The description for E in the rulebook was "Slow. Painfully slow. Almost never gets there." That's Aguilar.)
Brewers' offense vs. Dodgers' lefties
Milwaukee ranked 25th in the majors in wOBA against lefties during the first half of the season. That would be a big problem against the versions of Ryu and Kershaw we've seen over the latter part of the season and into the division series. The good news, for the Brewers, is that they've bumped that ranking up to fifth since the All-Star break.
A big reason for this is the ascension of Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich to superstar status. Yelich's .415 wOBA against southpaws led all hitters in lefty-lefty matchups. Moustakas (.323 WOBA, .752 OPS) also held up against same-side pitchers. However, Travis Shaw (.272 WOBA, .599 OPS) did not.
The preponderance of lefties in the L.A. rotation -- don't forget about Rich Hill -- could force Shaw into a marginal role. However, by and large, the Brewers' lefty hitters hang in well enough against lefty pitchers that Craig Counsell should be able to lean on all his usual cogs.
With his team the winners of 11 straight games, MVP candidate Christian Yelich says having a day-by-day mindset has fueled Milwaukee's hot streak.
Dodgers vs. Yelich
Do the Dodgers have a Yelich killer? If so, it's hard to see who that would be. Yelich has been baseball's best player since the beginning of September. That's not the same as saying he's the best player in baseball, but right now he's producing like peak Barry Bonds -- you have to keep him in the back of your mind at all times.
Yelich has few holes in his arsenal at this point. His wOBA is more than .400 against righties and lefties, home and road, against fastballs and curveballs, against cutters, splitters and sinkers. He's just a nip below that against sliders and changeups. Is there a knuckleballer in the house?
Dodgers' patience vs. Brewers' walks
A sure way to get into trouble against the L.A. offense is to walk batters who subsequently score on two- and three-run homers. Red flag: Only seven teams walked more batters during the regular season than Milwaukee.
The Brewers improved in this area later in the season, but three of their pitchers who walked more than 9 percent of opposing hitters are some of their high-leverage relievers: Hader, Knebel and Jeffress. The Dodgers make guys pay for issuing free passes.
Dodgers' fly balls vs. Brewers' outfielders
Should the Brewers open the roof at Miller Park for this series? Alas, it's MLB's call, and if the temperature is typical for October in Wisconsin, chances are the roof will be closed.
I bring this up because a key metric in this series will be HR/FB%. That is percentage of fly balls that soar over the fence. Only Oakland hit balls into the air more frequently than the Dodgers during the season.
Miller Park is a fairly neutral run-scoring venue, but it is a good home run park, and with the roof closed, that might work in the Dodgers' favor. Dodger Stadium isn't a bad home run park, either, though it depresses run scoring overall. That's why the Dodgers led the National League in runs scored on the road but not at home.
If Brewers pitchers can keep the Dodgers' torrent of fly balls in play, then Milwaukee's transcendent outfield defense comes into play. According to Baseball Info Solutions, the Brewers' 116 defensive runs saved ranked second in baseball. Fifty-one of those runs were saved by outfielders, led by Lorenzo Cain, Yelich and Broxton.
Blowouts vs. squeakers
Because of their bullpen advantage, the Brewers might have an edge in close games in this series. If, instead, the series turns into a progression of blowouts, the Dodgers probably will be returning to their second straight World Series.
Half of Milwaukee's regular-season games were decided by two runs or fewer. The Brewers went 50-31 in those games. The Brewers led all of baseball with 33 one-run victories.
The Dodgers were so-so in close contests, going 22-22 in one-run affairs and just 15-20 in two-run games. But no team enjoyed more routs. Los Angeles went 31-10 in games decided by five or more runs, including an 8-2 mark in games decided by 10 or more runs.