We're down to the final week of the regular season. The Red Sox, Indians and Braves have clinched their respective divisions, and the Yankees have clinched a wild-card spot. Everything else is up for grabs, though some teams have a firmer grip on an invitation to the October dance than others.
If you're a fan of chaos -- if you're rooting for Team Entropy -- the good news is that there's a reasonable chance that it will take more than 162 games to sort things out, particularly when it comes to the National League wild card, though both the Central and West could wind up tied, as well.
Here's how the races stack up, with a look at the week ahead:
What to watch for
BIGGEST SERIES -- Brewers at Cardinals, Monday through Wednesday
For all of the contenders still standing, this is the only head-to-head matchup between any two of them until Friday, when the Cardinals visit the Cubs. Both teams here still have a faint shot at catching the NL Central-leading Cubs, though the Cardinals' odds of doing so, according to FanGraphs, are just 0.7 percent, and their elimination number with regard to that race is three. The Brewers, by comparison, still have a 7.1 percent chance of winning the division and an elimination number of five.
Beyond that, the teams enter the series in position for the two wild-card spots, with the Brewers two games ahead of the Cardinals and 3½ games ahead of the Rockies. At stake here is the balance of the season series, as the teams have split their 16 games thus far. Barring Colorado nosing its way into one of the wild-card spots, the outcome of this three-game series will determine home-field advantage for the wild-card game, which will be played Oct. 2.
GAME OF THE WEEK -- Brewers (Gio Gonzalez) at Cardinals (Austin Gomber) on Tuesday night.
The pitching matchup isn't a marquee one, but whoever wins Monday night's game will be in position to clinch the season series and potential home-field advantage on Tuesday night. Gonzalez, who was acquired from the Nationals along with international bonus slot money in exchange for a pair of minor leaguers on Aug. 31, has pitched pretty well in his three starts with Milwaukee, posting a 1.65 ERA and 3.03 FIP while lowering his overall season marks to 4.28 and 4.12, respectively. That said, the 33-year-old southpaw's walk rate remains an unsightly 4.3 per nine, and it has been lowered just a hair since joining the Brew Crew.
Gomber is a 24-year-old lefty who has made 10 starts and 17 relief appearances since debuting on June 2; he joined the rotation for good on Aug. 4, replacing Carlos Martinez. In that capacity, he has pitched to a 3.71 ERA and 3.47 FIP, getting by with a similarly beefy walk rate (3.7 per nine) and avoiding the long ball (0.5 HR/9). While the two offenses are pretty even overall in terms of wRC+ (99 for the Cardinals, 97 for the Brewers), there's separation as far as southpaws go, in that St. Louis has a 104 wRC+ against them, while Milwaukee has just a 94 wRC+ when facing lefties.
MOST ON THE LINE -- Rockies
They've still got chances in both the NL West and wild-card races, but they're playing from behind in both, trailing by 1½ games in each. Their odds of catching the Dodgers are 9.4 percent in the division, where they have an elimination number of six, and 17.7 percent in the wild-card race, with an elimination number of six relative to the Cardinals. They're done with NL West opponents, and they will play host to a pair of NL East also-rans, the Phillies and Nationals, this week.
NL CENTRAL
CUBS
The week that was: 4-2 (2-1 at Diamondbacks, 2-1 at White Sox)
The week ahead: The Cubs are at Wrigley Field for the remainder of the regular season, hosting the Pirates for four games from Monday to Thursday, then the Cardinals for the final three games. Their magic number to clinch the division is five. If and when they clinch, it will mark their third straight NL Central title and fourth straight postseason appearance, something they've never done in the history of the franchise, which dates back to the inception of the National League in 1876.
What you need to know: The Cubs' rotation spent most of the season underperforming. When I took a deep dive into their mess on Aug. 15, the unit ranked 10th in the league in ERA (4.20) and 13th in FIP (4.71). Over the past 30 days, however, their starters own the league's fourth-lowest ERA (3.27) and second-lowest FIP (3.38), with Kyle Hendricks (1.37 ERA, 2.51 FIP) and Jon Lester (2.43 ERA, 2.72 FIP) leading the way.
BREWERS
The week that was: 4-2 (2-1 vs. Reds, 2-1 at Pirates)
The week ahead: The Brewers play three games in St. Louis, then return to Milwaukee to host the Tigers, whom they haven't played since 2015 and haven't hosted at Miller Park since 2006. Interleague play makes for some strange bedfellows, but this is ridiculous.
What you need to know: Christian Yelich is making a strong closing argument in the NL MVP race. Including his 2-for-3 performance with a three-run homer and a walk against the Pirates on Sunday, he's hitting .371/.460/.783 with 10 homers in 113 plate appearances over the past 30 days. He now leads the NL in FanGraphs WAR by one full win, 6.6 to 5.6 for Anthony Rendon.
CARDINALS
The week that was: 5-1 (2-1 at Braves, 3-0 vs. Giants)
The week ahead: The Cardinals had the best week of any NL contender, increasing their playoff odds by 13.5 percentage points, even while gaining just one game in the NL Central standings. Now they get to face the two teams they're pursuing, hosting the Brewers for three games from Monday to Wednesday, then finishing against the Cubs (whom they've beaten nine out of 16 times this year) from Friday to Sunday.
What you need to know: While Matt Carpenter's MVP candidacy has hit the skids (.178/.315/.247 in September), the Cardinals' offense has received a much-needed boost with the returns of Marcell Ozuna (.288/.333/.550 with six homers in 87 PA), Kolten Wong (.300/.391/.425 in 47 PA) and Jedd Gyorko (.345/.444/.414 in 36 PA) from their stints on the disabled list. Ozuna had missed nine games due to right shoulder inflammation, Wong 10 games because of a left hamstring strain and Gyorko 13 games with a groin strain.
NL WEST
DODGERS
The week that was: 5-1 (3-0 vs. Rockies, 2-1 vs. Padres)
The week ahead: After taking care of business with a three-game sweep against the Rockies last week, the Dodgers are in the driver's seat, though they'll spend the rest of the regular season on the road, first in Arizona -- which was eliminated from contention in both the division and wild-card races amid their 5-16 September -- for three games (Monday to Wednesday) and then San Francisco (Friday to Sunday).
What you need to know: Walker Buehler has the highest WAR of any rookie pitcher in either league (3.0). The 24-year-old righty owns a 2.74 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 124⅔ innings overall, but he has been particularly dominant in 67⅓ second-half innings, with a 2.14 ERA and a 32.1 percent strikeout rate, numbers that respectively rank seventh and eighth among all major league starters in that span.
ROCKIES
The week that was: 3-3 (0-3 at Dodgers, 3-0 at Diamondbacks)
The week ahead: Their rough week could have been worse, as they regained some lost ground by sweeping the Diamondbacks and got good news regarding Trevor Story's right elbow injury not being season-ending. They host the Phillies for four games, having lost two out of three against them in June. They finish with three against the Nationals, from whom they took three out of four in April.
What you need to know: While it was initially feared that Story had strained his ulnar collateral ligament and could need Tommy John surgery, his injury was soon diagnosed as inflammation, and he could be back sometime this week. The 25-year-old shortstop is a critical part of the Rockies' offense, hitting .288/.343/.550 for a 122 wRC+. The team is getting above-average production from just two other regulars, third baseman Nolan Arenado (.293/.373/.546, 128 wrC+) and center fielder Charlie Blackmon (.288/.357/.492, 114 wRC+).
NL WILD CARD
What you need to know: The FanGraphs playoff odds estimate a 16.1 percent chance of a tie between two teams for the second spot. The Rockies would be guaranteed to be the road team if they are in a tiebreaker game, as they went 2-5 against each of the other two teams here.
AL WILD CARD
What you need to know: The Yankees have clinched a wild-card berth, while Oakland's magic number is down to one. If the A's belly flop to an 0-6 showing in a pair of three-game road series against the Mariners and Angels while the Rays go 7-0 hosting the Yankees and Blue Jays, then Tampa Bay would host Oakland in a Game 163 tiebreaker on the basis of their 5-2 season-series advantage. Don't hold your breath.
That aside, the A's will have to overtake the Yankees, who in addition to four games with Tampa Bay finish with three in Boston, in order to host the wild-card game. The A's and Yankees split the season series 3-3. If the two squads finish with the same record, the tiebreaker would go to New York on the basis of its better intradivision record; the Yankees are 39-30 (.565) against the American League East, while the A's are just 35-35 (.500) against the AL West. Mathematically, there's no way the teams' final records can end up in a tie with the A's also winding up with a better intradivisional record.