Because of trades and promotions -- as well as some recent draft picks who haven't panned out yet -- the Cubs' system is pretty barren right now. So they couldn't make a big acquisition without throwing a lot of money into the deal. The Cole Hamels trade is exactly that -- a fringe prospect and the assumption of most of a big contract to get a starting pitcher they need.
The Cubs gave Tyler Chatwood a three-year deal based in large part on what appeared to be promising Statcast data, but he's been a disaster, walking 85 batters in 94 innings and getting killed by left-handed batters (as he always has). Hamels is a clear upgrade in that spot, although as good as Hamels was at his peak, he's been decidedly average this year and has become very homer-prone, at least in Arlington, where he has made 10 home starts and given up two homers in seven of those. He's still missing a ton of bats with his changeup -- his 26 percent whiff rate on the pitch is a shade higher than it's been the past two years -- but he's making more mistakes with the pitch, with 7 of the 22 homers he's allowed coming on the change.
Getting out of Texas' ballpark should help somewhat, but he's probably not the pitcher he used to be anymore, as his velocity is off a little and he has thrown fewer strikes since he was traded from the Phillies to Texas in 2016. Hamels has an option for 2019 at $20 million with a $6 million buyout. As mediocre as he's been for the past year and a half, $14 million -- the marginal cost if the Cubs pick it up -- for one year of a league-average starter is about right.
Texas gets salary relief here along with adding right-handed pitcher Eddie Butler, one minor leaguer and a player to be named later.
Butler has always had a great arm with a power sinker and two secondary pitches that can flash above-average or better, but he's had trouble staying healthy -- perhaps because of a tough low-slot, slinging delivery -- and trouble throwing strikes.
Right-hander Rollie Lacy was the Cubs' 11th-round pick in 2017 out of Creighton University, a player identified both by the Cubs' scouting staff and their analytics department as a non-traditional target. Lacy doesn't throw hard and has just one above-average pitch in his changeup, but he throws a heavy sinker that generates a ton of groundballs. He throws strikes but isn't going to miss many bats, lacking an average breaking ball, and he has a short stride and abrupt finish to his delivery that don't bode well for durability or his ability to ever spin a third pitch. He could be a fifth starter with his current arsenal, although he's also at risk of becoming homer-prone as he moves up the ladder, given the marginal stuff.