Monday marked the start of the new international free agent (IFA) signing period in Major League Baseball, a time frame that lasts until June 2019, when there's a two-week hiatus preceding the next IFA year. This is when amateur players from foreign (mostly Latin American) countries sign their first pro contracts, and most of them do so on the first eligible day.
Thus begins a long journey that for even the best among this group of mostly 16-year-olds takes four or five years of development in the minors before the casual fan becomes aware of their existence. For even the most well-read fan with interest in prospects, the players who signed this week quickly vanish into obscurity and aren't heard from again until they pop up in a minor league box score almost a year from now.
In the time between when players sign and when they start seeing time in affiliated games, they are playing baseball. It's meaningful, scoutable baseball that an increasing number of teams are evaluating, but it takes place in a controlled environment with zero emphasis on the outcome of the games. During this time, individuals can significantly alter the way teams have evaluated them, in part because so much physical development is occurring for these players in their late teens. These important months for scouting and player development are lost amid the baseball-loving public's other priorities.
The first fall
Most international players arrive to play stateside baseball in the autumn after they sign for fall instructional league. During this time, prospects are playing games (some teams play more games than others; some play none at all), adjusting to pro nutrition and conditioning programs and doing classroom learning. The fresh faces who stand out on the field during this time are the ones who are advanced, either physically or technically.
Fundamentally sound baseball is not common among teenage prospects, who often have unpolished physical gifts. Those less prone to mistakes stand out immediately and often accelerate where they fall on the organization's developmental depth chart.
Arguably the top 16-year-old in the 2017 class was Rays shortstop Wander Franco, who was clearly advanced from both a physical and fundamental standpoint. He skipped several short-season leagues and was sent right to the Appalachian League, where he's off to a great start statistically despite being three years younger than the league average. He's tracking like a power-hitting, everyday shortstop, which is what international scouts projected him to be.
The Yankees pushed several 2017 July 2 signees to the Appalachian League this year, but that's generally quite rare. Blue Jays RHP Eric Pardinho is also in the Appalachian League. Like Franco, Pardinho is both physically and technically mature. Because of Pardinho's stout, 6-foot frame, he might not enjoy an uptick in velocity as he ages. But his present stuff already is good, and he has polished command. Proponents consider him a future mid-rotation starter.
Spring growth
Once fall instructional league is over, the players often head back to their countries of origin for the winter, then return once minor league spring training begins the following year. Because of their age, many of them return to the U.S. drastically different physically and need to be re-evaluated. These are often players who had big, skinny frames the previous fall.
This year, Diamondbacks OF Kristian Robinson and Angels OF Trent Deveaux both arrived in Arizona looking like premium college football prospects. Robinson's size and speed, especially, are breathtaking, but each player has a chance to be a power/speed threat who plays center field. Deveaux and Robinson both are from the Bahamas, where they faced little pro-quality talent as amateurs, so they're being brought along more slowly than Franco and Pardinho, but each is too physically prodigious for the Dominican Summer League. As such, they are, appropriately, assigned to the Arizona Fall League, which is sandwiched between the other rookie levels. Mets SS Ronny Mauricio falls into this high-variance category of up-the-middle players who have huge, projectable frames and might grow into significant power.
Summer performers
As the spring progresses into the summer and actual games are being played, scouts start to warm to the players whose skills are best appreciated over a longer period of time. You can see prospects take batting practice and infield once and get a feel for many of their physical abilities, but subtle, nuanced aspects of the game take longer to evaluate. For instance, scouts might not see an individual hitter make strong contact with pitches in various parts of the strike zone over a span of three games, but over the course of several weeks of scouting, they will. This applies to baserunning, defensive instincts, pitch sequencing and the like.
This year's most resounding example of this was Indians outfielder George Valera. He isn't physically remarkable, but his feel for center field could allow him to play there despite mediocre speed. His swing path and natural feel for fly ball contact could enable him to hit for power despite possessing middling raw thump. He also has a terrific eye for the strike zone.
Some of these secondary skills are clearly among the most important in baseball, but we often don't know about this aspect of a player's skill set when he is an amateur because of the nature of the scouting process, which is focused on physical ability. Valera is also in the Arizona League but might hit his way out of the desert, if he's healthy, later in the summer. Blue Jays infielder Miguel Hiraldo is similar, though Toronto sent him to the Dominican Summer League after extended spring training, and he's dominating down there. Both players could be on-base machines who play valuable defensive positions.
Who among the 2018 crop is comparable to those we've already mentioned?
Physically and fundamentally advanced (Franco, Pardinho):
Junior Sanquintin, SS, Cleveland Indians: Big-bodied shortstop with a quick first step for his size. Already has present feel to hit.
Misael Urbina, OF, Minnesota Twins: His 6-foot frame is pretty maxed out, but Urbina is strong and has arguably the best bat-to-ball skills in the class.
Diego Cartaya, C, Los Angeles Dodgers: This 200-pounder (most of these kids are 160) from Venezuela can control the running game and hit. His ability to catch pro stuff in the fall will dictate how aggressively he's placed next year.
Big, skinny frames that might develop quickly (Robinson, Deveaux, Mauricio):
Kevin Alcantara, CF, New York Yankees: Alcantara has a young NBA shooting guard's frame and is one of the youngest players in this year's class (he doesn't turn 16 until July 12). He has plus present speed.
Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants: Luciano has big power already and room to add more without moving off a premium defensive position. His actions at short aren't great, so he might wind up in center field.
Raw player we won't see for two years but should know about now:
Alejandro Pie, SS, Tampa Bay Rays: Pie might move off short and into the outfield because of his size and actions. He also needs a swing rework but has huge power potential.