Last week in this space, we discussed the players who are the most indispensable for teams fighting for a spot in the playoffs. But when talking trade deadline, call-ups and other bits of roster construction, there are players who are not necessarily the team's top contributors, but are extremely important open questions as teams plan over the next month or two. How these players fare this month may have a large effect in how the trade deadline plays out.
Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees
When talking about the Red Sox and Yankees, you wouldn't be wrong if you said the largest thing affecting this divisional race wasn't a player or a manager or an owner, but simply the change in the playoff structure to a two-team wild card rather than a one-team format. Under the old system, while there's always a bit of heat between the Sox and Yankees, the losing AL East team would feel pretty confident in settling for a wild card spot that's almost as good as winning the division.
The one-game wild-card "play-in" makes winning the division a lot more important. New York has made some big trades in recent years without giving up its most prized prospects, but if the Yankees are needing to bid with other playoff teams for pitching additions later this month, they may need to part with at least one. Jordan Montgomery already is gone for the season, Sonny Gray still suffers from too many subpar starts (even if his walk rate has improved) and Domingo German has an ERA near 6.00 when starting.
Both ZiPS and Steamer project Masahiro Tanaka with an ERA around 4.00 over the rest of the season, which is just as good, with a few notable exceptions, as any pitcher they can reasonably expect to acquire at the deadline. Tanaka establishing himself back in the rotation quickly from his hamstring injuries may prevent the Yankees from feeling the need to close a deal for Cole Hamels. And if a player like Jacob deGrom truly becomes available on the market now or in the offseason, players not traded for a Hamels or a Tyson Ross would be available for a much more exciting acquisition such as deGrom.
Dexter Fowler, St. Louis Cardinals
The conventional wisdom with the Cardinals always seems to be that they need more pitching, especially in the bullpen. But while the St. Louis bullpen hasn't been a huge plus and could use another arm for depth, it still ranks 10th in MLB in ERA+. Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas in the rotation aren't flashy, but they've been giant upgrades, and with Luke Weaver likely to pitch better, the team is past needing Adam Wainwright to finally bounce back.
What's particularly obnoxious for the Cardinals is how Fowler's season has gone. The most frustrating thing about Fowler is that he should be hitting better than he is. You can rightly say that a .200 BABIP is unsustainable, given that Fowler has a career .331 BABIP and even pitchers as a group tend to be above .210-.220. I know, I keep reassuring Cards fans about this.
But there comes a point at which Fowler's bounce back actually has to happen, not just be predicted. Fowler is about two wins behind where a league-average right fielder ought to be at this point of the season, and that's a frightening margin in a division in which the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals are likely to all be within a few games of each other in September. Personally, I'd bench Fowler right now and just roll the dice with Tyler O'Neill in there, but with the team not likely to be that bold (or rash if you disagree with the notion), they need to figure out what's broken with Fowler posthaste.
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Perhaps a bit too obvious, but I'm talking about Ohtani the hitter, not so much Ohtani the pitcher. When you look at the long term, Ohtani returning to the mound is an important part of the team's future. But at this moment in this pennant race, getting Ohtani's bat in the lineup and hitting well is even more important than his pitching (as wonderful as that has been to watch). The Angels rank seventh in runs scored in the AL, a rather bleak position when being middle-of-the-pack requires Mike Trout having the best season of his -- and arguably anyone's -- career.
Albert Pujols is done as a significant contributor, Ian Kinsler's value was always going to be more glove than bat, Kole Calhoun has been wretched and there's no 2018 comeback for Zack Cozart. The Angels are playing catch-up and can't afford to be playing a three-player offense in the second half. Ohtani establishing himself as a full-time offensive force would be gigantic; the Angels' farm system is improving rapidly, but it still doesn't have the depth to make many big pickups possible without giving out a crown jewel such as Jo Adell.
Ender Inciarte, Atlanta Braves
Driven by Freddie Freeman, the Braves' resurgence has a lot to do with the fact that the offense is second in the National League in runs scored. The Braves can't expect Nick Markakis and Johan Camargo to continue playing out of their minds, so when one of the non-stars starts fading, where do they replace that production? You can't expect more from Freeman, Ozzie Albies or Ronald Acuna Jr., who are all having enormously productive seasons. Kurt Suzuki has an OPS comfortably above .800! The likely place that slack has to be made up for is Inciarte in center, hitting around .250 after coming into the year with a .295 career batting average, and having only five extra-base hits in June.
Edwin Encarnacion, Cleveland Indians
Cleveland finally seems to be pulling away in the AL Central after letting the Tigers linger a bit too close for comfort for months, but that doesn't mean the Indians don't have holes. Lonnie Chisenhall's return has helped Cleveland's overall performance on the 1B/LF/RF side of the defensive spectrum, but what the Indians really need is Encarnacion with an OPS+ more along the lines of the 125 he put up in 2017 -- already the weakest season he's had in years -- rather than shuffling around 100. Cleveland's offensive highlights have been very high this year (Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley), but it's been unexciting or worse everywhere else. Encarnacion is supposed to be the all-around thumper, and as a DH, that's his only job after all.
Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks
While the Diamondbacks offense rises or falls with Paul Goldschmidt, even their star first baseman raking as usual isn't enough to make the offense top-tier. One of the driving forces of the Diamondbacks this year has been the starting pitching, and when the team was terrorizing the league in April, it was in large part because of a rotation in which the average starter was pitching like Chris Sale.
Of course, that was unlikely to continue, but Arizona needs the rotation to be among the best in the NL. It can be with Zack Greinke and Patrick Corbin at the top, but Taijuan Walker is gone, Zack Godley has been inconsistent and suffering from lapses in control and Matt Koch was never going to be the savior.
Ray has been the missing piece in a lot of ways, good enough last year that he just missed my Cy Young ballot due to inning count (162). Ray is back from an oblique injury, and the lefty re-establishing himself as a star quickly gives Arizona less reason to worry about Godley. Remember, the Diamondbacks have a very thin farm system, and it's unlikely they can find the pitching equivalent of J.D. Martinez at the trade deadline in 2018.