If you asked fans of 30 teams how they feel about their team's bullpen, you'd probably get 25 or so responses indicating how much better their teams would be without those bums in the pen. People instinctively remember those games lost in the ninth inning far more than those games that were over in the first, and far more often than not, it means it's the bullpen left holding the bag.
While a team's starting rotation and lineup will have more of an effect on the playoff hopes than the bullpen, there's no denying that the crew of long relievers, setup men and closers are present during the highest-leverage situations. Even the most sabermetrically inclined teams will overpay for a top reliever at times, such as when the Cubs brought in Aroldis Chapman down the stretch in 2016 for a package highlighted by Gleyber Torres, who already appears to be a star in the majors.
As we head toward the halfway point of the season, we start to think about trades, and even in slow deadline years, a lot of relievers move to new digs. To this end, here is how all 30 bullpens rank in MLB, according to the ZiPS projection system. For each team, I'm listing the team's bullpen ERA to date and their ERA projection for the rest of the season, as well as their bullpen's projected likelihood to help (or hurt) their playoff odds compared to an "average" bullpen to help provide a sense of who could use some help to boost their postseason bid, and who owes how much of their shot to the relievers they have. Teams are ranked by their projected bullpen WAR over the rest of the season.
30. Miami Marlins
So far: 5.49 | Rest of 2018 projection: 4.32
Projected added playoff odds: 0.0 percent
The Marlins have a solid record of all-around lousiness, with the bullpen ranking as one of the top contributors there. In this case, it's not even a case of the team's cupboard being emptied by salary dumps. Veterans Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa have combined for a 7.74 ERA and 11 home runs allowed so far, earning Tazawa his release and Ziegler a demotion from the closer's role.
29. Kansas City Royals
So far: 5.48 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 4.51
Projected added playoff odds: 0.0 percent
Kansas City is not contending so there should be little question about Kelvin Herrera being traded. Having a bounce-back season, Herrera's strikeout rate isn't quite where it should be, but his plate-discipline stats against suggest that number should tick upward. Herrera still hasn't allowed a single walk.
28. New York Mets
So far: 4.55 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 4.11
Projected added playoff odds: minus-0.9 percent (an average pen would get them to 1.9 percent odds)
The Mets have lost games at a 100-loss pace since their season-opening 11-1 hot fortnight. Honcho Sandy Alderson has publicly trashed the concept of the Mets doing a full teardown, so I wouldn't expect much selling in July. The unknown returns of Jeurys Familia and AJ Ramos and the question of how much Seth Lugo will be needed as a starter -- when he's been the team's most dependable reliever -- give this pen some downside.
27. Detroit Tigers
So far: 4.32 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 4.56
Projected added playoff odds: minus-0.7 percent (1.3 percent odds with an average pen)
ZiPS liked Joe Jimenez more than most did coming into the season, projecting him at a 3.81 ERA after his 12.32 mark in 24 games for the Tigers in 2017. But he's been even better than that, with a 2.30 ERA through Saturday night, and is the team's most pleasant surprise in relief.
26. Tampa Bay Rays
So far: 3.92 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 4.22
Projected added playoff odds: minus-0.2 percent (0.3 percent odds with an average pen)
While I was a fan of the idea of the Rays trading Alex Colome at some point, I'm not sure this was the right time, with his ERA inflated by more than a run over his FIP (4.15 ERA vs. 2.70 FIP before the trade). Losing Colome does knock the Rays about five spots from where they would have been otherwise.
25. Philadelphia Phillies
So far: 3.64 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 4.35
Projected added playoff odds: minus-5.6 percent (with an average pen, their odds go up to 18.3 percent)
This might be too low, as I'm conservative on Pat Neshek's return and I think ZiPS is underrating Seranthony Dominguez and his high-90s fastball. Dominguez is the type of player who is tricky for any projection system; he has half a season of relief and half a season above Class A. These things could push the Phillies closer to their season-to-date ERA than ZiPS thinks, but Philadelphia is reaching the point at which a relief acquisition or two might be warranted.
24. Pittsburgh Pirates
So far: 4.39 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 4.08
Projected added playoff odds: minus-1.0 percent (2.7 percent odds with an average pen)
Felipe Vazquez should be a lot better than his current over-4.00 ERA, which would do a lot to boost the Pirates' bullpen ERA the rest of the way. The problem here is that their pen really isn't that deep.
23. Cincinnati Reds
2018 so far: 4.07 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 4.29
Projected added playoff odds: 0.0 percent
It's a shame that the team doesn't consider trading Raisel Iglesias, who would probably be around for only a year or two at most of a possibly contending Reds outfit. But with three and a half years until he reaches free agency and employed in the meantime at a reasonable price, the Reds could get a significant package of prospects in return.
22. San Diego Padres
So far: 3.28 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 3.94
Projected added playoff odds: minus-0.1 percent (0.4 percent odds with an average pen)
I'm tempted to write the same for the Padres that I did with the Reds, just replacing the proper nouns, but I think my editor would notice. [We did.] But the same reasoning applies here: The Padres are not a good team right now and what they can get for Brad Hand would probably be more valuable to the team's future than Brad Hand is.
21. Chicago White Sox
So far: 4.06 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 4.30
Projected added playoff odds: 0.0 percent
The White Sox have had the most underperforming bullpen in high-leverage situations this season, the team's WPA being last in baseball despite a 106 ERA+ in relief. Luckily, things like WPA are past-looking rather than predictive, and the White Sox have several relievers teams ought to be targeting in trades. Chicago has been quite clever here, stocking the pen with obvious targets for flipping (Joakim Soria, Luis Avilan) while also apparently fixing Bruce Rondon.
20. San Francisco Giants
So far: 3.90 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 3.83
Projected added playoff odds: minus-2.1 percent (their odds go up to 18.2 percent with an average pen)
There's been a marked bifurcation among Giants relievers this year, with the front of the bullpen overperforming expectations handily but a back end that has dive-bombed the group's ERA (its 3.90 ERA while calling AT&T home is actually below average). I can't see the team making any big moves here, with a weak farm system and far more pressing needs, most notably the rotation since Johnny Cueto's injury. Getting MadBum back can't fix that by itself.
19. Atlanta Braves
So far: 3.90 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 4.09
Projected added playoff odds: minus-3.0 percent (their odds go up to 49.5 percent with an average pen)
Like the Phillies, the Braves have reached the point where a depth addition or two down the stretch could have a significant effect; ZiPS projects that whichever team wins the National League East, it will be a fairly close race up until the final days of the season.
18. Los Angeles Angels
So far: 3.64 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 3.98
Projected added playoff odds: minus-1.7 percent (41.1 percent odds with an average pen)
It's not the flashiest group, but the Angels pen is thoroughly competent. (I swear that isn't an insult.) There's something fun about Blake Parker, a reliever who doesn't blow batters away like the stereotypical closer. Since reclaiming the closing job, Parker's splitter has been satisfyingly nasty.
17. St. Louis Cardinals
So far: 4.54 | Rest of 2018 projection: 3.95
Projected added playoff odds: minus-1.9 percent (61.2 percent odds with an average pen)
Greg Holland hasn't exactly made the case that every MLB team spending the offseason not paying his asking price had a poor plan, has he? It's still weird that Bud Norris is an excellent reliever now, but the Cards really do need to add another arm. It's too bad Jordan Hicks is still a thrower rather than a pitcher at this stage.
16. Oakland Athletics
So far: 3.55 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 4.12
Projected added playoff odds: minus-0.2 percent (2.4 percent odds with an average pen)
Blake Treinen has been terrific, a relief for me considering how much I praised Oakland's pickup of him from the Nats in the Sean Doolittle trade. But there's not a lot of excitement elsewhere in the Oakland bullpen. I still expect that come July, the A's are more likely to sell a reliever than buy one.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
So far: 2.62 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 4.28
Projected added playoff odds: minus-0.6 percent (36.4 percent odds with an average pen)
This might be a little low, as ZiPS has tended to be a little too grumpy about Brad Boxberger for my tastes. Still, it's hard to see this group's ERA staying at 2.62 while it has a FIP/xFIP around 4.00. The organization doesn't have a deep farm system and the offense is a far more pressing issue.
14. Toronto Blue Jays
So far: 4.10 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 4.10
Projected added playoff odds: 0.0 percent (their playoff odds are 0.4 percent either way)
Toronto is already starting to run out of calendar, looking a little too far under .500 for mid-June for a playoff run to be likely. Seunghwan Oh is probably the most likely Blue Jay to fetch anything of interest if the team does throw in the towel.
13. Minnesota Twins
So far: 4.19 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 4.09
Projected added playoff odds: +0.6 percent (raising their playoff odds to 7.8 percent)
Unlike the rest of the team, the Twins bullpen has been in the middle, about where the group was expected to be. The team has had some struggles in high-leverage situations, ranking 23rd in MLB in WPA. The good news is that Fernando Rodney hasn't had his occasional two-month run of maddening ninth-inning disasters. But with a 20 percent dip in his strikeout rate, it could still be coming.
12. Los Angeles Dodgers
So far: 4.05 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 3.83
Projected added playoff odds: +2.3 percent (raising their playoff odds to 54.7 percent)
After blowing his second save April 17 against the Padres, Kenley Jansen's ERA stood at 8.10 and everyone -- including myself -- was aghast at how ineffective his cutter appeared to be. In the two months since, Jansen has allowed just three total earned runs and has yet to blow a save opportunity. The team's pen depth isn't what it was last season and the Dodgers are more worried about various starting pitcher injuries, but I'd still be surprised if the team didn't make an addition at some point here.
11. Seattle Mariners
So far: 3.66 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 3.78
Projected added playoff odds: +2.4 percent (raising their playoff odds to 60.1 percent)
Outside of Marc Rzepzcy ... Rezpscyzy ... Rzec ... Smith, who was released last week, the Mariners bullpen has performed admirably from top to bottom. Juan Nicasio's ERA is only in the clouds because of a .400 BABIP, which isn't remotely an ability level for any major league pitcher.
10. Cleveland Indians
So far: 5.98 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 3.91
Projected added playoff odds: +1.2 percent (raising their playoff odds to 92.7 percent)
There's no getting around it: Cleveland's bullpen has been horribad so far this season. And not just ERA-wise, with a WPA also at the bottom of the league. ZiPS remains optimistic about this group, seeing it as improbable that half the bullpen should have an ERA north of 6.00. Andrew Miller's return will help as well.
9. Washington Nationals
So far: 3.89 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 3.93
Projected added playoff odds: +2.7 percent (raising their playoff odds to 82.9 percent)
ZiPS was happy to see Justin Miller get a second shot in the majors, projecting him now as the third-best reliever in the Nats bullpen behind Doolittle and Ryan Madson. Personally, I think I'd put the Nats somewhere between 12th and 14th, as I'm not as sold on the team's depth as the computer is. This team has shown a willingness to add relievers at the deadline before and I suspect the Nationals will do it again, especially with the string possibly running out on this core.
8. Baltimore Orioles
So far: 4.33 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 3.94
Projected added playoff odds: 0.0 percent
Too bad the O's very rarely have leads to protect. If the Orioles have any clue about the straits the franchise is in, any reliever for whom another team offers any real prospect shouldn't finish the season on Baltimore's roster. Zach Britton showing he's healthy before the deadline would be a pretty big deal for the team's future. While Baltimore ought to be trading Richard Bleier if it gets a serious offer, I'd still be curious to see how long his success can continue, being a reliever in 2018 with a ludicrously low K/9.
7. Milwaukee Brewers
So far: 2.58 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 3.93
Projected added playoff odds: +4.9 percent (raising their odds to 80.4 percent)
Josh Hader! The Brewers remind me of the Angels about 15 years ago, with a top bullpen made almost entirely of castoffs. You have Hader, the weird unstoppable long closer who's being used like it's 1979. Jeremy Jeffress was sold high then bought back low. Add in a couple of veteran castoffs in Dan Jennings and Matt Albers. And this is without Corey Knebel, one of the team's 2017 stars, not cruising along yet.
6. Boston Red Sox
So far: 3.06 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 3.91
Projected added playoff odds: +0.5 percent (raising their odds to 99.1 percent)
A bullpen with Craig Kimbrel would be hard pressed to rank low. In a race with the Yankees that projects to be close come September, I still expect the Red Sox to make a significant acquisition here.
5. Chicago Cubs
So far: 2.62 ERA | Rest of 2018 projectin: 3.80
Projected added playoff odds: +3.6 percent (raising their odds to 94.0 percent)
Getting Brandon Morrow for two years and $21 million rather than paying top dollar for Wade Davis or another reliever has proved to be some well-placed thrift. The Cubs are strange in a sense, a team with a .600 winning percentage that people talk about like it's below .500. But the team's disappointments haven't been the bullpen, which has been universally good this year.
4. Texas Rangers
So far: 3.67 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 3.97
Projected added playoff odds: 0.0 percent
I'd be surprised if Keone Kela's ERA didn't get under 4.00 for good soon; he's a far better pitcher than that number says. The Rangers ought to be active at the deadline; a bullpen this good has no business being on a team this far from contention.
3. Colorado Rockies
So far: 5.16 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 4.21
Projected added playoff odds: +6.5 percent (raising their odds to 14.7 percent)
Some of the struggling players on the Rockies can't really be considered a surprise. The bullpen, on the other hand, nearly the exclusive target for improvement by Colorado's front office this winter, ought to be a lot better than it has pitched so far. In particular, I still am cautiously optimistic about Bryan Shaw turning things around. Plus, Adam Ottavino ought to be back soon.
2. Houston Astros
So far: 3.03 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 3.49
Projected added playoff odds: +2.0 percent (raising their odds to 97.9 percent)
Poor Ken Giles, with an ERA above 5.00 while having a FIP hovering around 2.00. Luckily for him, the Astros aren't an organization likely to be tricked by artificial inflation of a pitcher's ERA. Collin McHugh has proved to be dominant in the pen and Hector Rondon has been one of the sneakiest-good pickups of the year. The Astros can likely cruise with the pen they have.
1. New York Yankees
So far: 3.11 ERA | Rest of 2018 projection: 3.37
Projected added playoff odds: +1.7 percent (raising their odds to 99.6 percent)
People make fun of ZiPS projecting this Yankees pen as being the best bullpen it has ever projected, going back to 2004. The group has actually been quite solid overall despite a couple of early high-profile blown games. And with the Yankees averaging nearly two strikeouts a game more than the rest of the bullpens, they remain baseball's dominant relief crew.