It is draft day, the most wonderful time of the year, so here is my final -- ahem, "final" -- projection of first-round selections, but one I present with the caveat that multiple GMs told me Sunday that nothing would really be final until at least Monday afternoon, when teams and advisers would try to hammer out deals for players starting at the top. If there are deals already in place, I don't think any of those have leaked out, even to other teams. Monday might still be very busy, and I'll update this as appropriate if I hear anything concrete.
1. Detroit Tigers: Joey Bart, C, Georgia Tech
Yes, this is a change, but I'm not in any way saying this will happen, or that the Tigers have made a public decision. (Maybe they haven't even made an internal decision.) I can say the teams behind them, with whom I've had discussions, leaned toward Bart going first over Casey Mize because of pitcher-versus-position-player concern. Of course, this could come down to which player is willing to take the better deal for the Tigers -- and perhaps there will be a third name involved, like Jarred Kelenic, whom the Tigers scouted heavily at the end of his season. One wackadoodle -- a word I do not use lightly -- rumor Sunday morning had them doing a deal at 1-1 with Nick Madrigal, but that did not have any substance behind it.
2. San Francisco Giants: Cole Winn, RHP, Orange (California) Lutheran HS
I've heard they covet Bart, and are considering Winn, Matthew Liberatore, Alec Bohm, Brady Singer and that kid down the street from you who throws wicked hard and one time hit you in the back and you were black and blue for like three whole days.
3. Philadelphia Phillies: Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn
They're looking at about a half-dozen names, which I think include Bart, Bohm and Madrigal. If Mize gets here at all, it's not a lock they take him, but since they don't pick again until the fourth round, it would make sense to commit full-slot to the best player available.
4. Chicago White Sox: Brady Singer, RHP, Florida
Also potentially looking at Madrigal or Bohm here. I do hear only college guys are in play.
5. Cincinnati Reds: Nick Madrigal, SS, Oregon State
Although Sunday morning I felt confident this pick would be Madrigal or Jonathan India, by Sunday evening there were rumors flying they were shopping a deal to multiple prep arms, including Carter Stewart, Liberatore and Grayson Rodriguez. The Reds pick again at 47, and have an extra pick at 72, so they could get creative and try to find their next Taylor Trammell.
6. New York Mets: Jarred Kelenic, OF, Waukesha (Wisconsin) West HS
Kelenic is the only prep player I've heard with the Mets; otherwise it has been college bats, including Bart, Madrigal, Bohm and Travis Swaggerty.
7. San Diego Padres: Alec Bohm, 3B, Wichita State
Bohm is the only college player I've heard here, although I keep hearing them linked to Kyler Murray for their competitive balance pick. If they go high school, it's Liberatore, Stewart, Ryan Weathers, maybe Kelenic. Wild Sunday rumor: They might go way under-slot here with Steele Walker to help fund a way-over-slot pick at 38.
8. Atlanta Braves: Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Gallie HS, Melbourne, Florida
This was a late shift, although they could still take Nolan Gorman or Singer if he falls here.
9. Oakland Athletics: Matthew Liberatore, LHP, Mountain Ridge HS, Peoria, Arizona
They could go college with Swaggerty (or Madrigal if he gets past the Reds and Mets), or high school with Liberatore or Gorman. I'd heard them tied to Shane McClanahan a few weeks ago, but that may be less likely today.
10. Pittsburgh Pirates: Nolan Gorman, 3B, Sandra Day O'Connor HS, Peoria, Arizona
Mostly hearing prep players here, arms like Liberatore, Stewart and Weathers, although I've also heard they're interested in Jordyn Adams and Connor Scott.
11. Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Weathers, LHP, Loretto (Tennessee) HS
Hearing mostly pitching here, although I don't know what might happen if, say, a player like Bohm slid out of the top 10. I've heard them linked to all the college arms of note, including Logan Gilbert and McClanahan, plus Weathers and Liberatore.
12. Toronto Blue Jays: Jonathan India, 3B, Florida
This is supposedly Swaggerty's floor, too; I've heard them linked more to college guys (India, Ryan Rolison) than prep guys, although the rumor mill badly wants to connect them to Noah Naylor because he's Canadian. The one prep arm I've heard them tied to is Grayson Rodriguez.
13. Miami Marlins: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Nacogdoches (Texas) HS
I said in my last mock this would be an almost obvious pick under the old regime -- if the Tyrell Corporation hired Stan Meek, all replicants would be big, physical, hard-throwing high school pitchers from Texas or Oklahoma. Whether the new regime feels the same way about this class of players is unclear.
14. Seattle Mariners: Travis Swaggerty, OF, South Alabama
Although they've been linked to tons of prep guys from Brice Turang to Xavier Edwards to Nick Schnell, I do think they end up going college, probably to whichever bat falls here, like India or Swaggerty.
15. Texas Rangers: Jordyn Adams, OF, Green Hope (North Carolina) HS
The general consensus on the Rangers has them on all the high-ceiling prep players, including Stewart and Kelenic, with Adams the most likely of the bunch to get to them.
16. Tampa Bay Rays: Noah Naylor, IF, St. Joan of Arc HS, Mississauga, Ontario
I've mentioned their interest in Turang before, and if he got to Pick 31 they might go over-slot with him there. They've also been connected to all of the prep outfielders, including local kid Scott, Adams, Alek Thomas and Schnell.
17. Los Angeles Angels: Logan Gilbert, RHP, Stetson
College arms, a few prep arms (notably Rodriguez and Weathers), and select prep bats, notably Adams.
18. Kansas City Royals: Jordan Groshans, 3b, Magnolia (Texas) HS
The Royals pick again at 33, 34, 40 and 58, so they're linked to ... everyone. And I am sure most of it is real. I have heard them specifically linked to Groshans and Turang, along with Mason Denaburg, Jake McCarthy, Jeremy Eierman, Scott and Adams, and that's probably about right. When you pick that often and have that much pool money, you should be linked to a lot of players. They do have the opportunity to walk out of this with three first-round talents if they play the board well.
19. St. Louis Cardinals: Shane McClanahan, LHP, South Florida
Folks seem to think the Cards will go college, although I have seen their guys at plenty of high school games as well. McClanahan was a potential top-five pick, but a rough second half has caused him to slip. They're also a possible landing spot for Jackson Kowar, the Florida right-hander who doesn't quite seem to have a landing spot yet.
20. Minnesota Twins: Ryan Rolison, LHP, Ole Miss
Rolison was a little better his last few outings, punching out 13 in a regional matchup against a weak opponent, and could still sneak up into the teens, maybe as high as 11 or 12. I've heard the Twins are interested in Kowar as well, and a few of the prep bats such as Scott.
21. Milwaukee Brewers: Jackson Kowar, RHP, Florida
This is more of an educated guess on my part than any specific intel on the Brewers' plans. They have leaned toward BPA every year since Ray Montgomery came over (he has since been promoted, with Tod Johnson now the director), and Kowar would fit that and fills an organizational need for starters anyway.
22. Colorado Rockies: Connor Scott, OF, Plant HS, Tampa, Florida
The Rockies tend to favor athletes with their top picks; I wonder, without ever hearing them connected, if they'd be in on Cole Wilcox, a very high-upside arm with an unorthodox delivery, a bit like their pick of Riley Pint a few years back.
23. New York Yankees: J.T. Ginn, RHP, Brandon (Mississippi) HS
I've heard them linked more to names who probably don't fit well in the first round, like Grant Lavigne or Adam Hackenberg -- guys who'd be perfect targets in the second.
24. Chicago Cubs: Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville (Georgia) HS
I've heard the Cubs would generally prefer a bat to an arm after taking two arms in the top 30 last year.
25. Arizona Diamondbacks: Matt McLain, IF, Beckman HS, Tustin, California
I've had them linked to McLain a few times now, but also keep saying it's possible they're on him for Pick 39 in the competitive-balance A round instead.
26. Boston Red Sox: Brice Turang, SS, Santiago HS, Corona, California
This connection keeps coming up from other scouts, although it's unclear whether Turang gets this far and is signable here (he's committed to LSU).
27. Washington Nationals: Mason Denaburg, RHP, Merritt Island (Florida) HS
For Denaburg to miss two months with some sort of shoulder or biceps soreness, come back, throw very well for scouts in just a few outings, and get back in the first round would be a great outcome for the Florida commit. I've also heard Washington connected to Wilcox.
28. Houston Astros: Cole Wilcox, RHP, Heritage HS, Chickamauga, Georgia
Pure speculation here, with the Astros, playing with house money right now, just betting on a talented prep arm who should have gone higher, as they did with Forrest Whitley two years ago.
29. Cleveland Indians: Jake McCarthy, OF, Virginia
McCarthy was probably heading for a top-15-20 pick before his injury. Otherwise I've heard Cleveland linked to prep outfielders like Scott, Thomas and Schnell.
30. Los Angeles Dodgers: Nick Schnell, OF, Roncalli HS, Indianapolis
Also hearing them linked to Thomas and Groshans. But they pick 30th, so who really knows?