With the Rays boasting two picks in the compensation round, and the Royals three (two for free agents, one competitive balance pick), both teams are expected to do over-slot deals with players after the first round ends. Which means some names you might expect to see below are absent but will get first-round money at a later selection.
1. Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn
Although Al Avila & Co. have been spotted all over the country -- seeing Joey Bart, Jarred Kelenic, Nick Madrigal and I assume the insides of lots of airport terminals -- the industry consensus still seems to be that Mize, the best player in the class, will go No. 1 on Monday.
2. San Francisco Giants: Cole Winn, RHP, Orange (California) Lutheran HS
They could still take Mize if he's there -- or Brady Singer or Joey Bart. It does seem like they're leaning toward a pitcher over a hitter now, and if they take Winn -- whom Giants general manager Bobby Evans saw earlier this month -- they could save enough to go well over slot at pick 45.
3. Philadelphia Phillies: Joey Bart, C, Georgia Tech
I think the Phils would be thrilled to get Bart, one of the safest big leaguers in the draft, at this pick. Behind Jorge Alfaro, their big league catcher with an 80 arm and a 2.6 percent unintentional walk rate, their system is very light on catching. They've also been linked to Mize and Alec Bohm, and to a lesser extent to Madrigal.
4. Chicago White Sox: Brady Singer, RHP, Florida
The White Sox aren't afraid to take pitchers with unusual deliveries, hitting big time on Chris Sale, while also taking Carson Fulmer in the top 10 and Tyler Danish in the second round. You might even throw Carlos Rodon and Alec Hansen in that category. I've also heard them linked with the usual suspects such as Mize, Bart and Madrigal.
5. Cincinnati Reds: Nick Madrigal, SS, Oregon State
Madrigal and Bart are the two safest big leaguers in the draft -- the probability of either player reaching the majors in some kind of nonzero role (better than a replacement-level player) is as high as anyone else's in this class. I've also heard the Reds with Singer, Jonathan India and Matthew Liberatore (a few times now).
6. New York Mets: Jonathan India, 3B, Florida
Almost all college bats here -- India, Bohm, Bart, Madrigal, Travis Swaggerty, and possibly Kelenic.
7. San Diego Padres: Alec Bohm, 3B, Wichita State
Although general manager A.J. Preller's long-standing preference is for high-upside high school players, Bohm slipping to this point could change matters for the Padres, who did go college with two of their three first-round picks in 2016. Other names I've heard often here include Liberatore, Kelenic, Carter Stewart and Ryan Weathers. They've also been linked to Oklahoma center fielder Kyler Murray as a possible over-slot pick in the sandwich round.
8. Atlanta Braves: Nolan Gorman, 3B, Sandra Day O'Connor HS, Peoria, Arizona
Atlanta has been connected to Gorman for a while now, although I have to think it would be open to taking someone else who fell; I've heard the Braves with Singer and Liberatore, and to a lesser extent with Stewart. Of course, they're automatically assumed (often without reason) to be on every Georgia high school player.
9. Oakland Athletics: Travis Swaggerty, OF, South Alabama
They could go college or high school, pitcher or position player, with Swaggerty, Liberatore, Gorman and Shane McClanahan all in their mix.
10. Pittsburgh Pirates: Matthew Liberatore, LHP, Mountain Ridge HS, Peoria, Arizona
Liberatore is the best prep lefty in the class, maybe the best prep arm overall, and scouts have linked the Pirates to high school arms all spring, including Stewart as well, with some outside chance they go with one of the high school outfielders instead.
11. Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Weathers, LHP, Loretto (Tennessee) HS
Yep, that's still David Weathers' son, and he's in play from the Padres at 7 on down into the teens. The Orioles have been linked more to arms than batters, including college arms earlier this spring -- but that seems to have cooled as some of the better college prospects coming into the year have faded.
12. Toronto Blue Jays: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Nacogdoches (Texas) HS
As with the O's, the Jays were assumed to be on college pitching, but that seems to be out the window, at least according to the latest slander. Swaggerty's floor is probably here. They also could go with Kelenic, Connor Scott or Ryan Rolison, and they're getting linked to Noah Naylor, but that might just be because everyone assumes they're on the Canadian player. They're also one of the teams linked to Xavier Edwards, if he gets to their second pick.
13. Miami Marlins: Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Gallie HS, Melbourne, Florida
The best curveball in the class, with a fastball up to 98 mph, shouldn't last this far in the draft, but everyone's afraid of high school right-handers, and Stewart had a little hiccup at the end of his season due to a wrist injury. The Marlins also have been linked to Rodriguez and Weathers. Changes to the front office have left other teams wondering who's making the final call here and if longtime director Stan Meek's preference for big, hard-throwing prep pitchers, like Stewart, still holds.
14. Seattle Mariners: Jarred Kelenic, OF, Waukesha (Wisconsin) West HS
Although Jerry DiPoto has never taken a high school player with a first-round pick with the Mariners or Angels, the latest rumors have Seattle more on prep players than college, including Kelenic, Naylor, Weathers, Brice Turang and Nick Schnell.
15. Texas Rangers: Jordyn Adams, OF, Green Hope (North Carolina) HS
Adams has top-10 tools -- but limited baseball experience, because he has been a football player as well, which might lead to him going somewhere in the teens instead of up top. (I haven't heard him linked with the Padres, but he does seem like their kind of player.) The Rangers have been linked to prep players, and they're the stopping point for a few names who might slip, such as Stewart or Kelenic.
16. Tampa Bay Rays: Noah Naylor, IF, St. Joan of Arc HS, Mississauga, Ontario
One fun rumor had them trying to take Naylor here, going a little under slot, and then blowing it out to get Turang at pick No. 31 (compensation for losing Alex Cobb in free agency) or No. 32 (their compensation for passing on Drew Rasmussen, the No. 31 pick last year, after he failed his physical). I've also heard them on every high school outfielder of merit, including Scott and Jordyn Adams, as well as Jake McCarthy, whose brother is playing well for Durham, Tampa's Triple-A affiliate. And they were well represented at Mason Denaburg's appearance Wednesday.
17. Los Angeles Angels: Logan Gilbert, RHP, Stetson
I've heard them mostly on pitching, but with a few prep hitters mixed in, including Adams and Scott. I think Weathers stops here if he gets this far. Rolison or McClanahan also could fit here.
18. Kansas City Royals: Brice Turang, SS, Santiago HS, Corona, California
Turang came into the year as a potential top-10 pick, a strong underclassman performer who could play the heck out of shortstop. But a rough first two months this spring hurt his stock with teams up top. He could still go in the teens or be someone's overpay in the sandwich round -- including the Royals, who have multiple picks there. They've also been connected to Jordan Groshans, Scott, Adams, Alek Thomas, Naylor, McCarthy and Jeremy Eierman (although he'd probably be for a later pick), as well as showing up big for Denaburg on Wednesday.
19. St. Louis Cardinals: Shane McClanahan, LHP, South Florida
McClanahan's bad second half seems to have really cost him; he was once considered a possibility to go second overall, and he now could end up in the 20s. There's some belief that the Cardinals will go for a college player here, but they've been seen at all the premium HS players' games too.
20. Minnesota Twins: Ryan Rolison, LHP, Ole Miss
Rolison also came into the year as a top-10 possibility, and while his results haven't backed that up, his stuff has. A decent showing at the SEC tournament likely helped his stock.
21. Milwaukee Brewers: Cole Wilcox, RHP, Heritage HS, Chickamauga, Georgia
Hearing the Brewers more with arms than bats, although their tendency since Ray Montgomery came over from Arizona has been very "best player available" as they pounce if someone slides to them.
22. Colorado Rockies: Connor Scott, OF, Plant HS, Tampa, Florida
Hearing them on athletic prep position players, although it's worth bearing in mind that they've leaned toward pitchers over hitters with first-round picks.
23. New York Yankees: J.T. Ginn, RHP, Brandon (Mississippi) HS
They've also heavily scouted Grant Lavigne, a prep first baseman in New Hampshire, although he could be there for their second pick at 61.
24. Chicago Cubs: Jordan Groshans, 3B, Magnolia (Texas) HS
Hearing bats over arms here, which most likely would mean high school, given the shortage of college bats for this range of the draft other than McCarthy.
25. Arizona Diamondbacks: Matt McLain, IF, Beckman HS, Tustin, California
I've mentioned a few times that other teams believe they're the top club on McLain, but Arizona could try to float him to their pick at 39 and take a different prep bat here, or even try to cut a deal with McCarthy.
26. Boston Red Sox: Seth Beer, DH, Clemson
Yes, Beer technically is an outfielder, but the odds are pretty high that he ends up a designated hitter in pro ball, and I don't think any National League teams are on him up here. I've heard the Sox with both Gilbert and Turang if either should get this far.
27. Washington Nationals: Mason Denaburg, RHP, Merritt Island (Florida) HS
Denaburg was set to be a top 15-ish pick but missed almost two months with biceps tendinitis. He returned for an outing in late May and was 92-95 mph again, enough that he seems to be back under consideration late in the first round, with the Nats specifically linked to him (and he fits their profile in multiple ways).
28. Houston Astros: Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville (Georgia) HS
The Astros' approach this spring has been novel, to say the least, as they've skipped scouting certain players who don't meet criteria laid out by their R&D department. That's left them out on several players likely to go ahead of them anyway, although others are still linking them to various good-stats players or players with strong Trackman readings, like Seigler, Trevor Larnach and Schnell. If Duke's Griffin Conine goes in the first round, this would be my unsubstantiated guess on a team for him.
29. Cleveland Indians: Jake McCarthy, OF, Virginia
McCarthy hasn't come all the way back from the wrist injury that wiped out most of his junior year, but his swing, speed and defense are all still intact, and he's one of the few up-the-middle players in this college crop who projects to stay up the middle in pro ball. I've heard Cleveland almost exclusively with bats, more high school than college.
30. Los Angeles Dodgers: Nick Schnell, OF, Roncalli HS, Indianapolis
Schnell is in the mix for a few teams above the Dodgers, but this might be his floor depending on who else falls to pick 30. The Dodgers have been connected to lots of prep outfielders, including Scott and Thomas.