Albert Pujols finally collected hit No. 3,000, on Friday against the Seattle Mariners, perhaps one of the last highlights in a career that will result in a quick trip to Cooperstown five years after he hangs up his spikes. We're used to home run milestones in the present era, but Pujols is only the fourth player to amass 3,000 hits and 600 home runs, joining Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Alex Rodriguez. Rumor has it those other three guys were pretty good, too.
The fact that Pujols joined the 3,000-hit club is not in itself all that surprising. After his age-30 season in 2010, Pujols had already delivered 1,900 hits, which was good for the 13th-highest total in baseball history reached by that age. (Miguel Cabrera subsequently passed Pujols with 1,995 hits to rank 10th all time, knocking Pujols down a peg.) What is surprising is the actual date he accomplished the feat, because 2010 turned out to be the last all-caps ALBERT PUJOLS season, our final look at one of the most feared all-around hitters of our generation at the top of his game.
In the end, getting those 1,100 hits to reach 3,000 took Pujols seven years and an extra month or so of an eighth season. While the gigantic contract he signed after 2011 was never projected to end well for the Angels, the rate at which one of baseball's most feared hitters declined was surprising. Most of the time, when a star drops off this quickly in the second half of his career, it takes the pattern of Ken Griffey Jr.'s decline, in which the hitter's similarly disappointing 30s had a lot to do with a constant series of injuries, in this case limiting Griffey to just three 130-game seasons in his 30s.
In this case, Pujols, while having his share of nagging injuries, has generally been healthy enough to take the field, but playing well below his usual standards. Some players' bats age like fine wine, like that of David Ortiz. Pujols, not so much. There are 63 players in the Hall of Fame who had at least 2,000 plate appearances from their age-35 season to the end of their careers (Pujols passed the 2,000 mark a couple of weeks ago). Honus Wagner tops the list with 43.5 WAR (Baseball-Reference) starting at age 35; the median Hall of Famer contributed 14 wins at these ages. So far, Pujols stands at 2.6 WAR, worse than all 63, the current worst being Rabbit Maranville at 3.6. If Pujols plays out his contract, his WAR is expected to decline, not surpass that diminutive shortstop.
As a result, Pujols, despite getting plenty of playing time, joined the 3,000-hit club later than expected. Knowing how often he'd take the field, ZiPS expected after 2010 that Pujols would get hit No. 3,000 during the 2016 season. Unlike Adrian Beltre, who reached 3,000 hits last season and now projects to finish with more career WAR than Pujols, The Machine had to limp beyond this particular finish line. It may even be the least interesting number in his Hall of Fame portfolio, which rests upon his legendary first decade in the majors.
But for other players, getting to 3,000 hits may still be the capper on a Cooperstown career, as it is for Beltre. Pujols never needed to get to 3,000 to make the Hall, but despite the long-term trend for even writers to shy away from quick milestones in their voting, 3,000 still holds sway over anyone who cares about baseball. It's a number not being cheapened by an environment that makes it easy to collect hits, because batting averages are near their historical nadir right now. So for fun, let's also project some dates for who will get there next, just in case you want to start planning your vacations for 2024 because you have a shockingly cruel human resources department at your workplace.
Miguel Cabrera
Hit total to date: 2,666
His chance of getting to 3,000: 97 percent
While injuries have clearly started to take their toll on Cabrera, who's coming off his worst season as a major leaguer, he ought to be able to surpass the 3,000-hit mark fairly easily, with only a career-ending injury having a significant shot of derailing Miggy. In the scenarios in which Cabrera gets to 3,000, April 6, 2021, is the average date. But if Cabrera can get on the field in more than the 125, 114 and 105 games ZiPS is predicting over the next three seasons, he'll be able to squeeze it into September 2020.
Robinson Cano
Hit total to date: 2,409
His chance of getting to 3,000: 77 percent
Now less than 600 hits away, Cano is close enough that he can almost fall over the finish line. But the good news is that he's aged fairly well. It was never likely that Cano would be the same player in Seattle as in New York, but even his lesser years have been solidly above average. Cano's batting averages have held up well, still in the .280 to .290 range even if he's unlikely to finish a season with a .300 batting average again. Age does take its toll on a player in his late 30s, so ZiPS projects that he won't get to hit No. 3,000 until Aug. 29, 2022.
Jose Altuve
Hit total to date: 1,295
His chance of getting to 3,000: 48 percent
The only reason Altuve's odds aren't even better is simply that a lot can happen on your path to 3,000 when you're not even halfway there yet. One of the best examples of this is Steve Sax, who was at 1,781 hits through his age-31 season, which gave him a high probability by Bill James' Favorite Toy (42 percent). Sax, of course, didn't even deliver 200 hits after that projection, finishing short of 2,000 with a final total of 1,949.
Altuve is a better player than Sax was. He's now a yearly MVP candidate who has led the league in hits in four consecutive seasons. If he pulls it off, ZiPS sees May 1, 2028, as the most likely date, so be sure to keep your calendar clear.
Mike Trout
Hit total to date: 1,076
His chance of getting to 3,000: 45 percent
As amazing as Trout is, his skill set isn't one that leads to huge hit totals, as Altuve's does. Trout still doesn't have any 200-hit seasons, for example, while Altuve already has four. But thanks to his overall dominance at a young age, Trout has collected enough plate appearances to surpass the 1,000-hit mark in his career. In the 45 percent of scenarios in which Trout finishes above 3,000 hits, ZiPS projects that average date as Trout's 39th birthday, Aug. 7, 2030. I enjoyed going to a Brazilian steakhouse for my 39th birthday; Trout's should be even better!
Manny Machado
Hit total to date: 906
His chance of getting to 3,000: 38 percent
It's unlikely to be in an Orioles uniform, unless it's in a late-career cameo similar to Eddie Murray's, but if Machado proves to be durable enough make a run at 3,000 hits, ZiPS projects it happening, on average, on July 10, 2032, or just after he turns 40. (OK, I admit, I'm a bit disappointed that we didn't get two birthday bull's-eye projections.)