The best player in baseball over the past five years has been Mike Trout. And if I can go ahead and give something away, I expect that the best player in baseball over the next five years will be Mike Trout. I'm thinking in terms of wins above replacement, or WAR, which is the simplest way to distill overall value into a single number. Sure, WAR has its problems, but it has everything included except the intangibles. I'll leave measuring intangibles to somebody else.
Writing about the best players in baseball over the next half-decade comes down to equal parts math and guesswork. Whenever you're supposed to look forward, it can be instructive to look back. Here are the top 10 players since 2013:
10. Adrian Beltre
9. Andrew McCutchen
8. Joey Votto
7. Paul Goldschmidt
6. Corey Kluber
5. Chris Sale
4. Max Scherzer
3. Clayton Kershaw
2. Josh Donaldson
1. Mike Trout
Out of that group, eight players were terrific in 2012. But with Kluber and Donaldson there was very little warning. Both were late bloomers, with Kluber learning a sinker in Triple-A and Donaldson overhauling his swing. There's simply nothing I can do to be able to predict random breakouts such as those. The same would apply to someone such as J.D. Martinez. Sometimes we don't get indicators, aside from a player being in the majors or the high minors in the first place.
So going forward, I'm trying to think about the best probabilities. I'm not going to pick a non-prospect in Triple-A at random. Instead, we're going with players who have already shown they're good, emphasizing two things: youth and being a position player. Youth because we're focusing on value from 2018 through 2022, and baseball players just don't age very well. Being a position player because as a general rule, don't trust pitcher health. There is one pitcher included in the top 10, but I couldn't bring myself to add another. There's just too much risk, and just about every pitcher's body is a ticking time bomb.
I should note that this is independent of contract status. This is an article about the best players, not the players most valuable to their teams, which is a different question. There are certain players it pains me to leave out: My five honorable mentions are Jose Ramirez, Chris Sale, Mookie Betts, Nolan Arenado and Ozzie Albies. Those five extremely valuable players narrowly missed the top 10.
10. Rhys Hoskins, OF/1B: Hoskins has the least big league experience on this list. But he also did enough already to turn me into a believer. Hoskins mashed as he moved up through the minors, and he hit the ground sprinting with Philadelphia. I don't love him only for his power. I don't love him only for his contact. I love him for the fact that, in addition to hitting for power and contact, he drew walks in a sixth of his plate appearances. Hoskins won't provide much in the field, and that's fine. He's a disciplined, young hitter with high-level pop and bat control, and it's in large part because of Hoskins that I think the Phillies are closer to relevance than they're given credit for. Hoskins has the skills to be a legend.
9. Aaron Judge, RF: You could argue for Judge at No. 1 on this list, and you could also argue for Judge at No. 100. It's hard to know exactly what to make of him because baseball just hasn't really had a him. Giancarlo Stanton is the only guy close, and you don't want to make too much of a comp pool of one. Maybe we should just let Judge speak for himself. He isn't doomed to have injuries just because Stanton has had some. And to whatever extent you think Judge was figured out in the second half, he still ran up an OPS of .939. I couldn't tell you how a profile such as Judge's should be expected to age, but for right now -- right now -- he can hit the ball harder than anyone. By fWAR, he was baseball's best player in the most recent season. The contact question might always linger, but Judge makes the absolute most of the contact he makes. He doesn't play by the regular rules.
8. Corey Seager, SS: I'm not sure there's a thing that Seager doesn't do well. He hits against lefties, and he hits against righties. He pulls the ball with power, and he goes the other way. He seldom hits an infield fly, and he has been better than expected as a shortstop. I guess he could stand to steal more bases, but now we're just getting greedy. Also, Seager's just a week-and-a-half older than Lewis Brinson. He's one of those guys who seems older than he is because he has been great since his early arrival. The only real problem here has been elbow health. Assuming that's behind him, they're all green arrows.
7. Noah Syndergaard, RHP: Syndergaard is the only pitcher I could bring myself to include. And I understand full well that Syndergaard is coming off a year in which he made only seven starts. But I believe that he's healthy again, and a healthy Syndergaard can do things other starters simply can't match. I love Clayton Kershaw, but he's several years older. I love Corey Kluber, but he's several years older. Chris Sale, too. Syndergaard is only 25, and he can reach triple digits seemingly without exerting himself. He does that while throwing three other pitches, and as recently as 2016, Syndergaard was a Cy Young contender. He throws harder than anyone should be able to, and he's more polished than anyone who throws so hard ought to be. Syndergaard's 2017 injury wasn't fair to the Mets. Syndergaard's future won't be fair to their opponents.
6. Francisco Lindor, SS: On the one hand, elite defense tends to be a young-player skill, and Lindor is only getting older. But Andrelton Simmons hasn't slowed down yet, and Ozzie Smith was fantastic into his late 30s. Smith's is a lofty name to bring up, but Lindor has that kind of talent in the infield. Plus, he already has been an outstanding major league hitter over more than 1,800 plate appearances. We knew Lindor was going to field his position, but the bat has been a surprise, and last season Lindor dramatically changed his own offensive profile by simultaneously increasing his power and his contact. The two usually go in opposite directions. What Lindor doesn't have is true light-tower power, but it's hard to fake 33 dingers. Lindor is the key to the Indians' roster, and he's why the team's window isn't closing any time soon. At 24, even better days could still be ahead of him.
5. Manny Machado, SS/3B: Machado's 2017 was actually a disappointment. Although it was far from a bad season, Machado took a couple of steps backward, showing almost no progress. So this is a hunch, in part because Machado is still only 25 years old, and there's so much talent yet to be tapped into. Any durability concerns are a thing of the past. I have every confidence that Machado's elite third-base defense will carry over to short. Although Machado has never possessed elite plate discipline, he is one of relatively few hitters capable of reaching exit velocities beyond 115 mph. It's my belief that there's still more power in there and that as Machado gets older, more of it is going to come out. There's a perennial MVP candidate in here.
4. Bryce Harper, RF: Adrian Beltre is going to make the Hall of Fame one day, but he might've done himself a disservice when he had one of the greatest age-25 seasons of all time. Beltre showed too much ability too young, and he never had a prayer of getting back to that level. Bryce Harper authored one of the greatest age-22 seasons of all time; I doubt that Harper will do what he did in 2015 again, but one shouldn't lose sight of what Harper is. Although an injury robbed him of six weeks, Harper was a top-10 hitter last season, and he's still -- still! -- only 25 years old. The batted-ball consistency isn't always there, and there's no getting around the fact that Harper has seen the DL a few too many times. But after this season, Harper is going to sign the largest contract in baseball history. There isn't a GM alive who doubts the ballplayer that Harper is -- and will be.
3. Carlos Correa, SS: There have already been so many conversations about Lindor vs. Seager vs. Correa. I guess now we get to add Machado, too, since he's moving to shortstop. But I'm a Correa loyalist. No, he's not Lindor in the field; he isn't even Seager. But I believe in Correa's bat the most, and hitting is still the best way to make an impact. Even with a torn thumb ligament, Correa just had his best offensive season, and he won't turn 24 until the end of September. He's one of the best all-fields hitters around, and he just substantially trimmed his rate of swings at pitches out of the strike zone. I have zero concerns about Correa's present or future. His ceiling is being one of the five or so best hitters in baseball.
2. Kris Bryant, 3B: I'll tell you exactly what I love about Bryant: Since his rookie season, he has dropped his strikeout rate by 37 percent. While a younger Bryant was known for his ability to drive the ball out the other way, this more mature Bryant has done his damage to left and back up the middle. It's not that there's anything wrong with going the other way, but what I like is that Bryant has developed and adjusted his approach without making any sacrifices. He has completely changed his offensive profile on the fly, and he's three-for-three so far in generating some measure of MVP support in three seasons. Credit Bryant also for handling a variety of defensive positions while providing greatly underrated baserunning value. He plays like a star, acts like a star and looks like a star. He has star-level talent and star-level instincts. Although Bryant is a few years older than, say, Correa, he's about as safe as it gets. He's the easiest kind of player for a manager to handle.
1. Mike Trout, CF: Trout has been easily the best player in baseball over the past five years. For the coming season, Trout projects to be better than the next-best player in baseball by nearly two full wins above replacement. Trout won't turn 27 until the end of the first week of August. I'm not saying it's impossible that someone else could take over. For the next five years, Trout isn't some kind of shoo-in guarantee. Things happen: Players get better, and players get worse. But the only reasonable name to put at No. 1 is Mike Trout. To go with anyone else would be to overthink. Sometimes baseball is simple.