The deal: The St. Louis Cardinals acquire OF Marcell Ozuna from the Miami Marlins for RHP Sandy Alcantara, OF Magneuris Sierra, RHP Zac Gallen and LHP Daniel Castano.
Why St. Louis made the deal: Ozuna is coming off a monster 2017, hitting .312/.376/.548 with 37 home runs while winning the Gold Glove Award for left field in the National League. It added up to a 5.8-WAR season that ranked ninth among NL position players, and this gives the Cardinals the middle-of-the-order bat they've desired. It also creates one of the best outfields in the game, with Tommy Pham -- coming off a breakout season of 6.4 WAR -- likely moving to center field on a full-time basis and Ozuna and Dexter Fowler in the corners.
Ozuna, who is under team control for two more seasons, hit between .259 and .269 his first four seasons in the majors, so there's certainly the possibility of regression, but there are a few reasons to believe in his performance. First of all, you can really point to his emergence in 2016, when he hit .307/.360/.533 in the first half and started the All-Star Game. He hit just .209 with six home runs in the second half, but he injured his wrist in late June and later missed a week after injuring the wrist on a diving catch. It seems likely that the two injuries affected his second-half production.
Aside from that, Ozuna's plate discipline was a little better in 2017, as his walk rate improved from 7.1 percent to 9.4 percent, and his chase rate in hitter's counts dropped from 33.3 percent to 23.9 percent. He toned down the aggressiveness, and it paid off. Finally, the advanced Statcast data show Ozuna as one of the elite hitters in the league:
182 hitters had 300+ batted balls in 2017. Marcell Ozuna's @statcast ranks:
— Andrew Simon (@AndrewSimonMLB) December 13, 2017
- 11th in avg. exit velocity (90.7 mph)
- 6th in hard-hit balls (214)
- 16th in hard-hit rate (45.4%)
- T-18th in barrels (44)
- T-33rd in barrels/PA (6.5%)
Simon did point out that Ozuna's .397 wOBA exceeded his expected wOBA of .359 based on the data, so maybe there was a little good fortune milked into his results, but he still projects as a big-time slugger. The Cardinals can run out a lineup that looks like this:
RF Fowler
CF Pham
LF Ozuna
SS Paul DeJong
3B Jedd Gyorko
2B Kolten Wong
There is still depth on the bench, with the likes of Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk and Jose Martinez. Plus, Piscotty, Grichuk and outfield prospects Harrison Bader and Tyler O'Neill are still looming as potential trade bait.
That looks like a solid lineup, as I believe in the abilities of Pham and Ozuna to repeat -- or come close to repeating -- their 2017 seasons. The Cardinals were seventh in the NL in runs in 2017, and they should climb higher in 2018. They didn't overpay for Ozuna, trading from their outfield depth and giving up an interesting pitching prospect, but I like this deal for them. Getting Ozuna for two years instead of one from Manny Machado or Josh Donaldson is a big plus.
Cardinals' grade: B+
Why Miami made the deal: Aside from the depressing nature of seeing the Marlins conduct another fire sale that will likely push their string of consecutive losing seasons to at least 11 or 12 (it's currently at eight), I'm not sure the Marlins made a great trade here, though I might be low on both Alcantara and Sierra. It's worth noting that neither the Ozuna or the Stanton trades landed the Marlins a single top 100 prospect on Baseball America's list of top prospects.
Alcantara is the guy who has to develop to make this salary dump pay off for the Marlins. He reached the majors in 2017 in just his second year of full-season ball, jumping all the way from the Gulf Coast League in 2015. As you might expect, he has big-time heat, sitting in the mid-90s as a starter. In his eight relief appearances with the Cardinals, his fastball averaged 98.2 mph and hit 101. One concern is that the spin rate isn't elite, which might be a reason he was somewhat hittable at Double-A, where he allowed 125 hits in 125⅓ innings and fanned just 106 batters. His changeup is regarded as plus, while the slider is less consistent. There's certainly big upside here, and he'll need a year in Triple-A, but some refinement is obviously necessary, and it wouldn't be surprising if he ends up a reliever in the long-term.
Sierra is a slight, speed-first outfielder, and he is also very young. He started last year at A-ball and spent a few weeks in the majors at age 21, hitting .317 in 60 at-bats. The scouting reports say he's an elite-level center fielder with a plus arm, though Clay Davenport's minor league translations show him more as an average defender, and it's a little interesting that he started more games in left and right field than center at Double-A Springfield.
Despite his speed, Sierra has been an inefficient base stealer in the minors, with 98 steals and 44 times caught stealing, including a mediocre 20-for-30 in 2017. If he isn't able to turn the speed into better results on defense and on the bases, that puts a ton of pressure on his bat to develop, and he hit just one home run in 408 at-bats in the minors, with a poor walk rate. Scouts say there's some potential for a little more power, and he'll need more time in the minors, but I wonder if he's more of a fourth outfielder on a good team -- or a starter on the Marlins.
Gallen and Castano are two college arms from the 2016 draft. Gallen is the guy to watch, a third-round pick from North Carolina who reached Triple-A in his first full season in pro ball. He has back-of-the-rotation stuff but throws strikes and is the kind of prospect who can surprise if his changeup turns into a good strikeout pitch. Given the state of the Marlins' rotation, he should see some time in the majors in 2018.
Marlins' grade: C+