You can't win the World Series in December. As so many of the recent big-splash teams have shown, throwing money at a free agent or two, or making a trade for a known star, doesn't move the needle as much as is sometimes presumed. Building a championship team takes a year-long commitment to building a complete organization, and in baseball, all the non-Mike Trout players aren't good enough to turn an also-ran into a contender by themselves.
Despite the fact that big winter moves are no guarantee of postseason success, there are a few general managers and presidents of baseball operations (for those organization who have engaged in title inflation) who should be preparing to be as aggressive as possible this winter, because 2018 might be their best chance to win for a while. Let's take a look at a few of the teams that have rational incentives to push as many chips in on this coming year as they can.
Billy Eppler, Los Angeles Angels: Despite having the best player we've seen in 50 or 60 years, the Angels have spent the past three years hanging around .500, as the Troutaineers haven't been able to support their superstar well enough to get him to October. Since Eppler took over as GM last year, the team has made some legitimate improvements, including acquiring Justin Upton from the Detroit Tigers in August and convincing him to not opt out of his contract by adding an extra year to his deal. With Upton around, the 2018 Angels look like they have the best chance to get back to playoff baseball the franchise has had in a while. But they need to do more.
The current 2018 projections at FanGraphs have the Angels at 84-78, the fifth-best team in the American League. Even without massive improvements, they could head into the season with a realistic shot at winning one of the wild-card spots. But if they want to challenge the Astros for the AL West title or hope to be competitive with the AL's great teams in October, they need to make a few upgrades.
Most obviously, the first-base/designated hitter status quo just doesn't cut it. While it is never easy to bench a guy who is still due another $114 million on his contract, Albert Pujols just shouldn't be an everyday player on a team trying to win in 2018. While it's unrealistic to expect Mike Scioscia to entirely bench a guy who racked up 101 RBIs last season, his .241/.286/.386 batting line is the kind of thing that is barely acceptable from a glove-first shortstop, much less a guy who doesn't play the field and can't run. At 38 years old, Pujols is now essentially a replacement-level player, and the team could make a significant upgrade by landing one of the many 1B/DH types who are available this winter. Swapping Pujols out for Carlos Santana would probably be a two- to three-win improvement, for instance, and push the Angels toward 90 wins. Add a legitimate second baseman such as Ian Kinsler, and it's not that hard to see this team winning 90-plus games and being a legitimate AL West challenger.
While the Angels have most of their best players signed beyond 2018, the reality is this might be their last chance to be really good for a while. Starting pitcher Garrett Richards is a free agent after next year, and the team is already thin on pitching depth. The farm system remains one of the worst in the game, and guys such as Upton and Andrelton Simmons might see their skills start to erode as they get older.
And then there's the Trout decision; if they don't win this year, and they think they'll be worse off in 2019, they will have to at least consider listening to offers for the best player in baseball. The best way to avoid those trade distractions is to win while he's there, and this looks like their best shot while they have Trout under contract.
If the Angels can add two or three more solid players this offseason, they could change the franchise's entire trajectory with a deep playoff run. Another low-key winter and a .500 finish next year, though, and we might spend next offseason evaluating Mike Trout trade packages.
Mark Shapiro, Toronto Blue Jays: While Shapiro and Ross Atkins came from Cleveland with promises of building a sustained winner, they also find themselves in a situation in which 2018 demands real decisions. The projections currently rate the Jays as an 83-win team, on the cusp of wild-card contention, but not a team that can afford to just roll with what it has and hope for the best. And Josh Donaldson's 2019 free agency looms over the organization's future.
Donaldson isn't quite as good as Trout, but he's a top-five player in MLB, and without him, the Jays would be a mid-70s win team. If they don't think they'll be re-signing him next year -- and given the team's talk of fiscal responsibility and the development of uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr., it seems unlikely -- then the team either needs to take advantage of Donaldson's last year north of the border or it'll be shopping him in advance of the July 31 deadline. The Jays have enough young talent that they don't need to prepare for a total reset in 2019, but limping into this year with a maybe-contender and then having to spend the summer deciding whether or not to punt the season instead of letting Donaldson walk for nothing isn't a great idea. The Jays either need to get significantly better this winter so they can commit to keeping him for the year, or trade him now when a team would pay maximum value.
Assuming they want to keep Donaldson and try to win with him, the Jays need at least one more outfielder and a starting pitcher, plus some middle infield depth. Acquiring multiple starting-caliber players and a guy you don't mind playing every day if (or more likely when) Devon Travis or Troy Tulowitzki get hurt won't be cheap, especially if you're looking at guys who are significant upgrades. The team could probably afford to bring in midtier players such as Jay Bruce and Jaime Garcia to fill the biggest holes, but that might only add a couple of wins to the ledger, and the Jays would still be fringe contenders who could easily fall out of the race with another early-season slump.
I'd aim a bit higher, going for guys such as Lorenzo Cain and Zack Cozart, then try to hit the lottery with a cheaper pitcher. Cain and Cozart could legitimately add five or more wins between them and return the Jays to being an elite defensive team, which could help the pitching without throwing a lot of money at a high-risk arm. That kind of package, plus some rebound years from guys who struggled last year, could put the Jays near the Yankees and Red Sox and give them a real shot at winning the AL East before Donaldson likely departs for southern pastures.
Jerry Dipoto, Seattle Mariners: While Major League Baseball and the union haven't yet agreed upon a one-year extension of the posting process that would allow Shohei Ohtani to come to MLB next year, no one in baseball should be hoping that the issue is resolved more than the Mariners' GM -- because no franchise in baseball could use Ohtani like the Mariners.
The Mariners feature one of the oldest cores in baseball, with much of their payroll going to Robinson Cano (35), Nelson Cruz (37), and Felix Hernandez (31, but with a career's worth of innings under his belt). Dipoto has attempted to make the team younger by acquiring guys such as Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger and Mike Leake, but this is still a team without a true franchise player. There are some good pieces, and guys who were great not that long ago, but an organization that has had some of the best players of all time probably counts Kyle Seager as its current best player. Corey's brother is a good third baseman but probably isn't anyone's idea of a franchise icon.
Ohtani checks basically every box for the Mariners. Not only would he dramatically upgrade the team's rotation, but his potential as a two-way player could give it a truly marketable superstar to reorient the franchise around. And if Ohtani is as good as advertised, he could push the Mariners from their current projection of 82 wins up into the high 80s, giving the team a real shot at breaking the longest postseason drought in baseball.
While the general assumption has been that Ohtani will end up in New York or Los Angeles for marketing reasons, since MLB's international acquisition rules prevent him from being paid anything close to his actual value, Seattle might be an attractive option for him, as well. The team has a long history of helping Japanese players succeed in MLB, and from both a geographic and cultural perspective, it might be one of the easiest cities for him to adjust to.
The Mariners' last great run was sparked primarily by betting on Ichiro Suzuki's ability to show that Japanese hitters could hit major league pitching. While everyone in baseball is going to want Ohtani, no one could benefit from adding him to their roster as much as the Mariners, and Dipoto should do whatever he can to convince Ohtani to sign with the Mariners this winter.