Nothing in sports reminds me of a 1980s game show as much as Major League Baseball's free-agent period. There are no roster bonuses or misleading options that teams will never pick up, and non-guaranteed contracts for big names are exceedingly rare. When a baseball team spends $100 million, they actually spend $100 million, figuratively shouting, "No whammies, no whammies, no whammies, STOP!"
As we do every year, with the next season's ZiPS projections percolating in the digital French press, we use the respite after every World Series to project how much the top free-agent signings are worth on a performance-to-dollar basis.
I don't always agree with the computer, naturally, but sometimes the computer wins, such as with Orioles slugger Mark Trumbo last season when I refused to believe that some team wouldn't foolishly overpay him. For the record, ZiPS projected two years, $21 million. He got three and $37.5.
Players are ranked by total projected contract in ZiPS, which models both years and dollars, and in a neutral park.
20. Brandon Morrow, RP
Age: 33 | B-T: R/R
Years in majors: 11
2017 Baseball-Reference WAR (bWAR): 1.1
ZiPS' projected value: Three years, $29.2 million (A.A.V.: $9.73M)
Morrow has always shown tantalizing potential as a starter, but given a decade of injuries, those days are almost certainly behind him, short of a team being too dangerously creative. The Dodgers were satisfied to use Morrow as a reliever and he thrived in the role, his first full major league season in the bullpen since his rookie season, and put up a 1.55 FIP. Most notably, he pitched in all seven games of the World Series.
19. Lucas Duda, 1B/OF
Age: 31 | B-T: L/R
Years in majors: 8
2017 bWAR: 1.1
ZiPS' projected value: Two years, $30 million (A.A.V.: $15M)
I'm unconvinced it will take even $30 million to land Duda, and if a team offers him, say, $20 million, I wouldn't be surprised if "The Duda" abides. Home runs are cheap right now, but it's hard to forget that Duda has put up solid power numbers in poor offensive environments and could thrive either as a stopgap starter for a team that needs it or the larger half of a timeshare.
18. Greg Holland, RP
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
Years in majors: 7
2017 bWAR: 1.4
ZiPS' projected value: Three years, $31.7 million (A.A.V.: $10.56M)*
While Holland's unlikely to get Jody Reeded this offseason (thinking he can get a big deal but having to settle for far less), ZiPS is definitely questioning whether he should have turned down the $15 million option for 2018. He did, however, get the $17.4M qualifying offer from the Rockies.
I suspect that, even if he doesn't regret turning down the option, Holland will regret if he doesn't accept the qualifying offer. It's understandable that he would want a longer-term commitment, but some of the reasons he would especially want a multiyear contract (injury history, uncertainty after second half) are reasons why teams might shy away from that. It's tempting to compare Holland to Mark Melancon, but I think Melancon was more sought-after than Holland will be.
Also, Holland is still wilder than you'd like from your closer and had a terrible second half of the season, and you can't completely ignore that his Tommy John surgery isn't that far in the rear-view mirror. Holland's a good reliever, but he's not going to get elite closer bucks.
*Rockies extended qualifying offer of $17.4 million
17. Addison Reed, RP
Age: 28 | B-T: L/R
Years in majors: 7
2017 bWAR: 2.4
ZiPS' projected value: Three years, $36.1 million (A.A.V.: $12.03M)
One of baseball's rarities, a highly considered relief-first prospect, Reed had gotten a reputation mainly for underachieving before his 1.97 ERA for the Mets in 2016. In 2017, he wasn't quite as good and he allowed a few too many homers for the Red Sox (five in 27 innings), but Reed's established himself as a very good relief pitcher, one you can ride heavily in a flexible role.
16. Alex Cobb, RHP
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
Years in majors: 6
2017 bWAR: 2.3
ZiPS' projected value: Three years, $38.3 million (A.A.V.: $12.76M)*
While Cobb's season was good, it still wasn't back to his 2014 levels, with the 20 percent missing strikeout rate still not returning in 2017. ZiPS is pessimistic, given his 4.16 FIP with a good defense in Tampa and his recent injury history, but I think he beats this figure. After all, there are only two really top starting pitchers above him on this list. Call it the Hellickson Rule, as in Jeremy Hellickson, who was one of the best available starting pitchers in free agency last year. And Cobb's better than Hellickson.
*Rays extended qualifying offer of $17.4 million
15. Jonathan Lucroy, C
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
Years in majors: 8
2017 bWAR: 0.6
ZiPS' projected value: Three years, $38.7 million (A.A.V.: $12.9M)
This contract would have looked a lot worse in a parallel universe in which everyone hits free agency over the All-Star break. Lucroy followed up his trampoline-bounce 2016 by posting a .256/.303/.364 line in the first half, the equivalent of one of those internet videos of someone injuring themselves on said trampoline. A .276/.395/.381 line in the second half salvaged his season, but he had been shipped off to Planet Coors. As a catcher turning 32 next season, he's not getting a large deal.
14. Todd Frazier, 3B
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
Years in majors: 7
2017 bWAR: 3.4
ZiPS' projected value: Three years, $47.4 million (A.A.V.: $15.8M)
Underrated as a prospect and overrated during his All-Star 2015 season in Cincinnati, Frazier appears to have come full circle and might be back to being underappreciated at this point. The .213 batting average won't scare off teams the way it would have 20 years ago, and he remains a solid defensive third baseman.
13. Logan Morrison, 1B/O
Age: 30 | B-T: L/L
Years in majors: 8
2017 bWAR: 3.6
ZiPS' projected value: Three years, $51.5 million (A.A.V.: $17.16M)
While 2017 was known as the Year of the Homer -- unless 2018 is even worse for pitchers -- but it was also a year in which seemingly every underachieving first-base prospect from 2010 thrived: Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso and Morrison, who hit 38 homers last season. He's not a starter, but he's a solid, above-average player, and I see him having an interesting under-the-radar winter while teams court Hosmer and Carlos Santana.
12. Yonder Alonso, 1B
Age: 30 | B-T: L/R
Years in majors: 8
2017 bWAR: 2.0
ZiPS' projected value: Three years, $52.9 million (A.A.V.: $17.63M)
I hate to eat a serious helping of crow after hating the A's bringing him back and then seeing Alonso hit .275/.372/.562 in the first half, earning his first All-Star appearance.
Alonso took a step back in the second half, losing 160 points of OPS and hitting only eight homers, but there's a danger of stepping into recency bias. Equipped with his new swing, he was a legitimate star-level player in the first half. He's not projected to put up an .866 OPS again (or he'd be projected to earn more than $53 million), but he's likely to be a solid player in 2018, and his defense should be a bit better.
11. Jay Bruce, RF
Age: 30 | B-T: L/L
Years in majors: 10
2017 bWAR: 2.9
ZiPS' projected value: Three years, $53.3 million (A.A.V.: $17.76M)
The 36 home runs are the front-page headline, but while Bruce isn't becoming Mike Trout or anything, he had his most well-rounded season since 2013, playing credible defense and hitting .254 with a .324 on-base percentage. That's not exactly a résumé builder, but that's less one-dimensional than he had become in recent years. It's not 1975, and teams aren't going to go batty over postseason heroics, but Bruce's ALDS, in which he hit two homers and had a 1.000 OPS, will hardly hurt his market.
10. Lance Lynn, RH
Age: 30 | B-T: B/R
Years in majors: 6
2017 bWAR: 2.8
ZiPS' projected value: Four years, $61.2 million (A.A.V.: $15.3M)*
I think more than half of the pitchers on this list missed time in 2015 or 2016 with Tommy John surgery. The larger worry is that Lynn's peripherals just didn't justify his 3.43 ERA, with his elevated home run rate and anemic 7.4 K/9 (this is 2017) leading to a 4.82 FIP. And when ERA and FIP disagree, FIP tends to win, being the more predictive measure. Lynn is unlikely to maintain a .244 BABIP in 2018, and despite his high ranking in the market, I think he has the potential to be this year's largest pitching bust.
Even though ZiPS thinks Lynn is worth less on a yearly basis than the qualifying offer, I suspect that a team will beat it by a comfortable margin. After all, starting pitching is harder to patch together than a spot in the bullpen, and he doesn't need everyone to think his ERA is more predictive than his FIP; he needs only one team with the willingness to spend to believe that. For example, after a year watching Ubaldo Jimenez, Wade Miley, and Chris Tillman give out runs as if they were postseason-stolen-base tacos, would they really be scared off by a pitcher who simply shouldn't be quite as effective as his ERA says?
*Cardinals extended qualifying offer of $17.4 million
9. Wade Davis, RP
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
Years in majors: 9
2017 bWAR: 1.9
ZiPS' projected value: Four years, $70.4 million (A.A.V.: $17.6M)*
Breaking: elite closer to get elite closer money. If you're going to overpay for a reliever, you might as well overpay for a great one, rather than one who's merely good. Every wealthy, risk-averse team that needs a closer in 2018 is going to have conversations with Davis this winter, including his current team, the Cubs.
*Cubs extended qualifying offer of $17.4 million
8. Zack Cozart, SS
Age: 32 | B-T: R/R
Years in majors: 7
2017 bWAR: 4.9
ZiPS' projected value: Four years, $70.9 million (A.A.V.: $17.73M)
Fun fact: If I project Cozart with ZiPS knowing nothing about his career-best 2017 season, ZiPS still makes him worth the $17.4 million qualifying offer the Reds refused to give him. There are "buts" when talking about Cozart, such as his age (32) and the fact he last played 130 games in 2014, but he's also one of the more underrated defensive shortstops in the game. Also to his benefit is that he enters free agency as one of the few -- maybe the only -- middle-infield option with any kind of 2018 star potential.
7. Mike Moustakas, 3B
Age: 30 | B-T: L/R
Years in majors: 7
2017 bWAR: 1.8
ZiPS' projected value: Four years, $76.4 million (A.A.V.: $19.1M)*
Moustakas' 2017 wasn't really as star-level as his 2015 was, but 38 homers from a third baseman who has defensive upside and showed he was healthy go a long way in the market. Moose is one of the players whose eventual contract I'm most interested to see, because there are scenarios in which he'll get more or even significantly less. He's also on the young side of a free agent, and it makes a real difference to be a recently turned 30-year-old free agent instead of a 32-year-old one.
*Royals extended qualifying offer of $17.4 million
6. Eric Hosmer, 1B
Age: 28 | B-T: L/L
Years in majors: 7
2017 bWAR: 4.0
ZiPS' projected value: Five years, $77.9 million (A.A.V.: $15.58M)*
My knee-jerk reaction is to fall for the hype, given all the talk about Hosmer making nine figures. But then I remember Edwin Encarnacion. Older than Hosmer but a more accomplished hitter, Encarnacion was hyped before last winter as a potential $100 million signing and eventually signed for only three years, $60 million guaranteed.
There's a lot of money out there, and Hosmer is young for a free agent (28) and has generally been a durable player, but is anyone really going to pay $100 million for a player who has never had two good seasons in a row? Sure, another Royal, Bret Saberhagen, had the same issue, but he was far better in his up years than Hosmer, who has peaked at four WAR in a season (Saberhagen had bWAR years of 7.3, 8.0, and 9.7).
*Royals extended qualifying offer of $17.4 million
5. Carlos Santana, 1B/DH
Age: 31 | B-T: B/R
Years in majors: 8
2017 bWAR: 3.4
ZiPS' projected value: Four years, $83.8 million (A.A.V.: $20.95M)*
Hosmer won the Gold Glove, but Santana has improved defensively at first nearly every season and is now a significant positive with the glove. He's also the more dependable offensive player. Though he has never been a great candidate to have an MVP season, he will fairly comfortably hit 25 homers or thereabouts with an OBP somewhere around .360. His age will keep him from a larger deal, but he's a big plus for a contender.
*Indians extended qualifying offer of $17.4 million
4. Lorenzo Cain, CF
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
Years in majors: 8
2017 bWAR: 5.3
ZiPS' projected value: Four years, $93.7 million (A.A.V.: $23.43M)*
As with Justin Turner last year, ZiPS is making a case for Cain being the best top free-agent bargain of the offseason, and I think he lands for considerably less than $93.7 million, given his age.
Cain's 2017 didn't get as much notice as his 2014-2015 seasons did, but it was legitimately an All-Star year. With 23.7 bWAR in the past five years, Cain has managed a single All-Star appearance, which is shocking. Cain's late blooming has cost him a good chunk of money; ZiPS projects him for six years, $150 million if he were three years younger.
*Royals extended qualifying offer of $17.4 million
3. J.D. Martinez, OF
Age: 30 | B-T: R/R
Years in majors: 7
2017 bWAR: 4.1
ZiPS' projected value: Five years, $100.8 million (A.A.V.: $20.16M)
The Astros didn't have a lot of mistakes come back and bite them in the end, but this was the big one. It's hard to blame Houston, of course, after Martinez hit .251/.300/.387 in nearly 1,000 plate appearances with the Astros, but the fact is, he blossomed in Detroit and, at least with the bat, is a legitimate star.
ZiPS doesn't even have Martinez's slugging percentage dip below .500 until the last year of this theoretical contract. As for defense, that's less exciting, and playing on a team with the DH, ZiPS adds a cool $20 million to his value.
2. Jake Arrieta, RHP
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
Years in majors: 8
2017 bWAR: 1.9
ZiPS' projected value: Five years, $130.9 million (A.A.V.: $26.18M)*
That's a lot of money, but it would have been even more if Arrieta had hit free agency after 2015 instead of 2017. In other words, "Peak Arrieta" is gone, but 2016-17 Arrieta is still a legitimate ace, if not a Cy Young contender. I'd still be most interested if I were a team with an excellent infield defense such as, well, the Cubs.
*Cubs extended qualifying offer of $17.4 million
1. Yu Darvish, RHP
Age: 31 | B-T: R/R
Years in majors: 5
2017 bWAR: 3.8
ZiPS' projected value: Six years, $156.6 million (A.A.V.: $26.1M)
You don't really think that front offices are going to obsess over his poor World Series, do you? Darvish has proved that his arm is sound, and when push comes to shove, he has the most star potential of any pitcher in free agency (we'll avoid the Shohei Otani argument for another day). If he were a free agent in 2013, Darvish would have hit the $200 million mark, but $150 million can still pay for all that avocado toast.