I'm calling this a list of make-or-break seasons, although I'm using that in broad terms. For some guys, yes, their careers as starters may be on the line. For others, it's about taking their games to the next level or simply holding on to their current roles.
No matter how you label it, these are some of the more intriguing players to watch in 2017.
Archie Bradley, P, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age: 24
2016: 5.02 ERA, 141 2/3 IP, 154 H, 67 BB, 143 SO, 1.0 WAR
Bradley's season had some bright spots, mostly notably striking out more than a batter per inning. He also made 33 starts and pitched 180 innings between Triple-A and the majors. With Arizona, however, he was still too hittable -- batters hit .308 and slugged .503 against his fastball -- and he still walked too many guys, his problem throughout his minor league career. He's just 24, but for him to reach that top-of-the-rotation potential he flashed when he was a top-10 prospect in the game, he needs to throw more strikes and command the fastball. Is this a bad time to mention he allowed six runs in 1 1/3 innings on March 7? He did bounce back with better results Sunday, with no walks -- although he gave up five hits and three runs -- in four innings.
Prediction: He's a little better than last year, lowering his ERA to 4.50, then appears on this list again.
Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit Tigers
Age: 25
2016: .285/.331/.496, 18 HR, 28 BB, 111 SO, 1.6 WAR
On the surface, Castellanos had a breakout season, despite a hand injury that limited him to 110 games. Let me quote Tony Blengino, however, from his hitter contact report at FanGraphs: "He's one of the weaker ground ball strikers in the game. That fly ball rate simply isn't sustainable over the long haul. His K/BB profile is bad, and hasn't been getting better with time. On balance, what do we have here? Players who hit their fly balls harder than their liners and their liners harder than their grounders are usually old players on their way out. This scares me about his long-term future."
On top of that, Castellanos remains a below-average defender at third base. The Tigers don't have anybody better right now, and with Victor Martinez under contract for two more seasons, you can't move him to DH or first base just yet. But unless that K/BB ratio improves, I'm skeptical he'll get better at the plate.
Prediction: His triple-slash numbers regress a bit, although with a full season he hits 25 home runs.
Corey Dickerson, OF/DH, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 27
2016: .245/.293/.469, 24 HR, 33 BB, 134 SO, 1.5 WAR
Dickerson showed his power can play outside Coors Field, but he didn't show he's a .300 hitter outside Coors Field. The Rays acquired Colby Rasmus and Mallex Smith in the offseason -- both much better defensive outfielders -- so Dickerson probably slots primarily at DH. If he can't hit lefties (.589 OPS in 2016) and can't improve that walk rate, a platoon DH with a sub-.300 OBP isn't the type of player today's front offices are clamoring to get on their rosters.
Prediction: By the end of the season, Rasmus and Smith end up playing regularly in the outfield with Kevin Kiermaier, and Dickerson is traded in July.
Avisail Garcia, RF, Chicago White Sox
Age: 25
2016: .245/.307/.385, 12 HR, 34 BB, 115 SO, 0.8 WAR
I never liked Garcia as a prospect, and his career has unfolded pretty much as I expected: not enough power, not enough walks, not enough defense. Not much of anything really. He doesn't turn 26 until June, so we can at least cut him some slack there. On most teams, he's a backup outfielder or Triple-A fodder, but the White Sox are so thin in the outfield that Garcia will apparently get another chance to play. Frankly, I don't get it. He had 32 extra-base hits in 553 at-bats in 2015, 32 in 413 at-bats in 2016. Nobody is calling him "Mini Miggy" any longer.
Prediction: He sucks up 500 at-bats and still stinks. The White Sox non-tender him in the offseason.
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals
Age: 27
2016: .266/.328/.433, 25 HR, 57 BB, 132 SO, 1.0 WAR
This is a different type of make-or-break player, as Hosmer is obviously an established major leaguer. As he heads into free agency, however, he needs to prove he's worthy of the $100 million-plus contract that agent Scott Boras will undoubtedly seek. Hosmer hit a career-high 25 home runs last year, but it came with a drop in his OBP and a rise in his strikeouts. He has yet to show he can hit for a high average and produce power. He has real power, but his problem: He simply hits too many ground balls. Only Howie Kendrick had a higher rate of ground balls among regulars last season. Unless Hosmer can retool his swing and add more loft, he'll remain a second-tier first baseman.
Prediction: He doesn't get a $100 million contract.
Joe Kelly, P, Boston Red Sox
Age: 28
2016: 5.18 ERA, 40 IP, 44 H, 24 BB, 48 SO, minus-0.2 WAR
The Cardinals and then the Red Sox had lusty dreams about Kelly's potential as a starter because of his mid-90s sinking fastball, but while he showed glimpses of hope, he was never able to develop any consistency with his secondary pitches. After posting a 4.82 ERA as a starter in 2015, Kelly had an 8.46 ERA in his first six starts of 2016. Shipped to the minors, he returned as a reliever, pumping upper-90s gas and allowing two runs over 17 2/3 innings with 21 strikeouts. He has a chance to be a dominant reliever -- assuming the Red Sox aren't tempted to put him back in the rotation.
Prediction: He remains in the bullpen, turns into a multi-inning relief weapon with a sub-2.50 ERA, and the Red Sox have the best bullpen in the AL with Craig Kimbrel, Kelly and Tyler Thornburg.
Jimmy Nelson, P, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 27
2016: 4.62 ERA, 179 1/3 IP, 186 H, 86 BB, 140 SO, 0.4 WAR
Nelson has two full seasons in the majors now, and he led the majors last year in walks and hit batters (tied with Chris Sale). He has the same control problems as Bradley, but without Bradley's strikeout rate, so he has to prove he's going to be part of Milwaukee's future and not just a placeholder until prospects such as Josh Hader emerge. Nelson's consistency remains a huge issue as he had eight starts in which he allowed six-plus runs and pitched five innings or fewer.
Prediction: He is who we thought he is. More of the same.
Martin Perez, P, Texas Rangers
Age: 25
2016: 4.39 ERA, 198 2/3 IP, 205 H, 76 BB, 103 SO, 1.8 WAR
He has appeared in parts of five big league seasons and still doesn't turn 26 until April.
I've always liked watching him pitch and have envisioned some good things for his future, but it's hard to look past that poor strikeout rate. Yes, he gets a lot of ground balls with that sinker and changeup, but it's almost impossible to succeed in this era striking out fewer than five men per nine (let alone walking 3.4 guys per nine).
Prediction: He improves his strikeout rate a bit, but the overall results remain about the same.
Michael Pineda, P, New York Yankees
Age: 28
2016: 4.82 ERA, 175 2/3 IP, 184 H, 53 BB, 207 SO, 1.2 WAR
Pineda has just three-plus seasons in the majors, but he's an impending free agent after missing two full seasons early in his career. You know the story here: great strikeout rate, bad hit rate. In the Baseball-Reference version of WAR, which is based on runs allowed, he was a below-average pitcher. In the FanGraphs version of WAR, he was a top-25 starter worth 3.2 WAR.
But this is two seasons in a row in which his ERA was a run higher than his FIP. When he gets to two strikes, he has that wipeout slider, but too often he leaves fat fastballs in the middle of the zone and gives up way too much hard contact. Pineda's career isn't on the line or anything, but he has to show he's more than a guy who racks up K's like an ace but gives up a runs like a No. 4 starter.
Prediction: He improves the fastball command, cuts down on the home runs and extra-base hits, wins 22 games, the Cy Young Award and Game 7 of the World Series. (Just seeing if Yankees fans are paying attention.)
Yasiel Puig, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 26
2016:.263/.323/.416, 11 HR, 24 BB, 74 SO, 1.4 WAR
Right? The Dodgers can't keep waiting forever on him to find his 2013-14 level of production. His OPS has declined three years in a row, even as offense has increased around the game. He hit off-speed stuff well his first two seasons, but has been more susceptible the past two years. His numbers are still good against inside fastballs, but poor against fastballs away. As everyone has suggested, this appears to be more about approach and adjustments than a decline in skill. He probably doesn't hit the ball in the air enough to be a 25-homer guy, but I'm not quite ready to give up on some of the potential here.
Prediction: I'd like to say he makes the necessary adjustments, but I think he ends up with a slash line similar to the one above and then gets traded in the offseason.
Justin Smoak, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 30
2016: .217/.314/.391, 14 HR, 40 BB, 112 SO, minus-0.4 WAR
This one cracks me up. Smoak is still getting opportunities? Just recently Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said Smoak is the team's preference to play regularly at first base. Now, maybe that's just something a GM says. After all, Smoak has nearly 3,000 plate appearances in the majors and his career wRC-plus remains below average. Not below average for a first baseman, below-average for all hitters. He's not good, and he's not young.
Yet, here he is, still in the majors. Jeff Sullivan even wrote a piece outlining possible optimism for Smoak. He looked at things like Smoak's exit velocity, launch angles and contact rates, and the most similar hitter was Freddie Freeman. The second-most comparable was Mark Trumbo. Kris Bryant was further down the list. It's a list of mostly good hitters plus Justin Smoak. Something doesn't add up there. When he makes contact, Smoak simply doesn't drive the ball. In Seattle, he was known as the king of the warning-track fly ball. Anyway, I'm not expecting a breakout, and I suspect this may be the last we see of Smoak as a regular or semiregular.
Prediction: Steve Pearce plays more games at first base.
Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 26
2016: .240/.327/.355, 5 HR, 34 BB, 52 SO, 1.5 WAR
I thought Wong might be an All-Star by now. Instead, he has gone backwards. It didn't help the way he was handled in 2016: He spent time in Triple-A, spent a few misguided weeks in center field even though he's a plus defender at second base and seemed lost at the plate much of the season. He did improve his walk rate, and he has contact ability and has shown pop in the past for a smaller player. I still think there's some upside here, but the Cardinals have other options at second base if Mike Matheny's patience wears thin.
Prediction: I think he rediscovers his bat and holds on to the second-base job, although he won't turn into an All-Star-level player.