My colleague Jim Bowden recently wrote about 10 players he predicts will have breakout seasons. He focused on young guys such as Andrew Benintendi, Alex Bregman and Julio Urias.
There is another type of breakout player: ones we might not expect. I'm thinking of somebody like Daniel Murphy, who tweaked his swing in 2015, watched his power develop in the second half and postseason that year and then hit .347 and led the NL in OPS in 2016.
Or Jose Altuve, who added power to his already high-average game and became an MVP candidate. Or Kyle Hendricks, who blossomed from soft-throwing No. 5 starter into a Cy Young contender.
Here are a few position players I'm looking at in 2017 to break out at the plate. Next week, we'll look at pitchers.
You know these guys
Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
2016 indicator: Low strikeout rate
If you're looking for the next guy to go all Altuve or Murphy on us, maybe Lindor is the guy. You know he's already good -- he hit .301/.358/.435 as a 22-year-old -- and a low strikeout rate of 12.9 percent that ranked 22nd among regulars is a sign he'll be a consistent .300 hitter.
Still, he's not quite in the Altuve/Murphy category of contact ability just yet. Those two had a 9.8 percent strikeout rate. Lindor will also need to add strength. Maybe it comes all at once in 2017, and he turns 15 home runs and 30 doubles into 25 and 40, or maybe he gets there in a couple of years, but I think he does get there. That means, with his defense, he becomes guy who can challenge Mike Trout for MVP awards.
Joc Pederson, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers
2016 indicator: Batted-ball authority, improved swing-and-miss rate
Few players hit the ball as hard as Pederson, who ranked 11th in the majors in average exit velocity. His swing is tailor-made to launch balls over the fence. It's just a matter of making enough contact. And hitting left-handers. And maybe not trying to jack every pitch 500 feet.
Pederson has a lot of marks in his favor, including youth. He turns 25 in April, and he did improve last season, raising his OPS from .763 as a rookie to .847, even though he hit just .125 against southpaws in 77 plate appearances. It's way too early in Pederson's career to declare that he can't hit lefties. In fact, I'd suggest it would be fairly unprecedented to turn a hitter of Pederson's ability into a platoon guy so early in his career. This isn't Seth Smith we're talking about. Part of the problem last year was that nobody on the Dodgers was hitting lefties, so Dave Roberts was constantly tinkering with the lineup. As a result, Pederson ended up on the bench more often than not in the second half.
This year, Pederson should be in center field every day. Yes, he strikes out a lot, totaling 300 in the past two season, but note that his overall swing-and-miss rate fell from 35.9 percent to 26.5 percent. He strikes out, in part, because he works the count, waiting for a pitch to drive, but that leads to a high walk rate. We know he can mash righties (.269/.371/.547). If everything comes together in the rest of his game, he could hit 40 home runs and lead the National League.
More than just their gloves
Kevin Kiermaier, CF, Tampa Bay Rays
2016 indicator: Improved walk rate
A two-time Gold Glover, Kiermaier is a defensive wizard and one of the most underrated players in the game. At the plate, he's learned to become more selective, which in turn should help his power output. His walk rate improved from 4.5 percent in 2015 to 9.7 in 2016, without a corresponding increase in strikeout rate, as he chased fewer pitchers out of the strike zone.
Besides the boost in OBP, this has allowed him to seek out pitches he can drive, and he has become more of a pull-happy, fly-ball hitter. His fly-ball rate increased from 26 percent his first two seasons to 35 percent last year, and he went from 10 home runs in 505 at-bats in 2015 to 12 home runs in 366 at-bats last year. Assuming he doesn't break two bones in his hand diving for a ball in the outfield, I could see 20-25 home runs this year. He probably won't ever be a high-average guy as he turns into an extreme pull hitter, but add that power to the .331 OBP he posted last year and his tremendous defense, and you're looking at one of the best players in the league.
Ender Inciarte, CF, Atlanta Braves
2016 indicator: Strong second half, improved walk rate
One reason the Braves' offense went from worst in the majors in the first half to second-best over the final two months was Inciarte's .341/.396/.440 line in the second half. I don't know if he can keep that up over a full season, but given his contact ability, I could see a guy who will improve on his .292 career average and became a consistent .300 hitter.
Don't expect any power to emerge. His average exit velocity is barely above the Billy Hamilton/Ben Revere line, and he hit just three home runs in 2016, but he has had an above-average line-drive rate, which could lead to more balls in the gaps and a few more doubles and triples.
Considering the lack of power, the key for him to remain an average offensive player lies in his ability to get on base. While his walk rate improved from 4.6 percent to 7.8, his chase rate remained a little above league average. If he can tone down his aggressiveness and boost that OBP into the .375-.380 range to go with his Gold Glove defense, like Kiermaier, he becomes an underrated and valuable player.
The late bloomer
Kole Calhoun, OF, Los Angeles Angels
2016 indicator: Improved strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Calhoun has been a good player the past three seasons, but in 2016 he cut his strikeout rate from 23.9 percent to 17.6 percent while improving his walk rate from 6.6 percent to 10.0 percent. That resulted in a much-improved .348 OBP.
Now all he has to do is consolidate the power he had in 2015, when he hit 26 home runs, with the improved contact from last season. He's 29, so it probably won't happen, and he'll have to adjust his swing to hit a few more fly balls. As an example, Brian Dozier went from a 39.6 percent fly ball rate in 2014 to 47.1 percent rate last year. Calhoun was at 37.6 percent last year, but that was up from 32.0 percent in 2015. If he can continue growth in that area, maybe he becomes a 30-homer guy with an above-average OBP.
Ready for the big stage?
Mitch Haniger, OF, Seattle Mariners
2016 indicator: Mechanical change, big numbers in minors
The Brewers selected Haniger 38th overall in 2012, then traded him to the Diamondbacks in 2014 for Gerardo Parra. The Mariners acquired him in the offseason as part of the Taijuan Walker-Jean Segura deal. Late in the 2015 season, after a demotion to Class A, Haniger began incorporating a leg kick into his swing and has done nothing but hit since.
Last season, split between Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno, he ranked third in the Southern League in wRC+ among those with at least 200 plate appearances and first in the PCL after hitting .341/.428/.670 for Reno. Yes, that's Reno, where pitchers go to die, but 43 extra-base hits in 261 at-bats is still impressive.
Because he put up those numbers in Reno and because he was already 25 last season, there's skepticism that it was simply an older prospect mashing in a good hitting environment. There is some swing-and-miss to his game, although he didn't have an excessive strikeout rate. His numbers with the Diamondbacks in September weren't great, but as Jeff Sullivan pointed out at FanGraphs, Haniger ranked in the 95th percentile in exit velocity. He's going to get the opportunity to prove himself as the regular right fielder in Seattle.
Ryon Healy, 3B, Oakland Athletics
2016 indicator: Mechanical change
Segura had a breakout season with the Diamondbacks after lowering his hands in his setup. Healy did the same before 2016, the idea being that you load into a more powerful position that creates more of an uppercut swing and allows your bat to remain in the zone longer. Healy had hit .300 in the minors, but with just 10 home runs in Double-A in 2015, he didn't have the power profile for a corner guy.
But in 2016, he hit 27 home runs between the minors and majors while maintaining a .300 average, including .305 with the A's. Healy still has to tighten up his strike zone -- he had 60 strikeouts against just 12 walks with the A's -- to completely tap into his power potential. If he does that, there's a chance he can hit .300 again. If not, pitchers will learn to expose the approach, and the average will drop 30 or 40 points.