The Rangers won their second straight AL West title with 95 wins, the second-most in franchise history, leading the division from May 29 on. They went 15-4 against the Astros and 12-7 against the Mariners and an all-time best 36-11 in one-run games. That kind of magic won't happen again, which is why the AL West looks like a tough three-team race, maybe even four if things break right for the Angels.
Texas Rangers
2016: 95-67, plus-8 run differential, lost American League Division Series to Blue Jays
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 82-80
Key moves so far: re-signed free-agent OF Carlos Gomez; signed free-agent P Andrew Cashner; lost free-agent OF Ian Desmond, DH Carlos Beltran, 1B Mitch Moreland, P Derek Holland.
As you can imagine, winning 95 games while barely outscoring your opponents is an unusual event. This unusual: Before last year's Rangers, since 1969, just 32 teams had won 95 games in a season; the average run differential for those teams was 123 runs, with the lowest figure at plus-76 by the 2011 Tigers. The Nationals also went 95-67 in 2016 and outscored their opponents by 151 runs. So remember, the 2016 Rangers were an extreme outlier; they may end up scoring more runs and allowing fewer in 2017 -- and still win fewer games.
Anyway, their path to the playoffs starts with ageless wonder Adrian Beltre and the one-two rotation punch of Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish. Assume the same kind of production from those three, but with a full season from Darvish, and you have three stars. Despite some of the offseason losses, there are reasons to think the Rangers could have maybe the best offense in the league:
A full season from Shin-Soo Choo. He was terrific at the plate in 2015 with a .375 OBP but played just 48 games in 2016.
A more patient Rougned Odor. The 33 home runs were sweet, but he has to improve that .296 OBP.
Big power from Nomar Mazara. His rookie season produced an underwhelming .266/.320/.419 line after a strong start. Like Odor, he has to improve the discipline and pitch recognition to get into better counts, and his 20 home runs could turn into 30-plus.
Gomez. See below.
A full season from Jonathan Lucroy behind the plate.
Signing Mike Napoli. There are still several first baseman/DH types out there. The Rangers could scoop up Napoli to provide more of a sure thing than Joey Gallo or Ryan Rua.
The Rangers will need runs, because the rotation looks spotty behind Hamels, Darvish and Martin Perez. Good thing the bullpen is deep and manager Jeff Banister is one of the best in the biz.
Key player: Gomez. He struggled so badly in Houston that the Astros released him in August. The Rangers picked him up and he hit .284/.362/.543 in 33 games. Did he really find himself again after two seasons of struggles and injuries?
Seattle Mariners
2016: 86-76, plus-61 run differential
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 83-79
Key moves so far: Acquired SS Jean Segura, OF Mitch Haniger and P Zac Curtis from Diamondbacks for P Taijuan Walker and SS Ketel Marte; acquired IF/OF Danny Valencia from A's for P Paul Blackburn; acquired P Rob Whalen and P Max Povse from Braves for OF Alex Jackson and P Tyler Pike; acquired C Carlos Ruiz from Dodgers for P Vidal Nuno; lost OF Norichika Aoki on waivers; acquired P Chris Heston from Giants.
Who says you can't score runs in Safeco Field? The Mariners mashed 223 home runs (second in the AL) and scored 768 runs (third). Their path to the playoffs starts with more of the same from Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager, who combined for 112 home runs and 18.9 WAR. Add in Segura, worth 5.7 WAR in 2016, and you have star offensive players.
GM Jerry Dipoto has also worked to improve the depth on offense, so even some regression from the big three means they should have a strong attack.
The pitching isn't such a sure thing, with a rotation that needs James Paxton to finally make 30 starts and pitch at a high level. He was dominant at times in 2016, posting a 3.19 ERA over his final 11 starts with a 71-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 67 ⅔ innings. For the Mariners to make the playoffs, it's Paxton who needs to become the ace over the declining Felix Hernandez.
Key player: Nate Karns or Ariel Miranda or Whalen. Somebody needs to step into the No. 4 spot in the rotation and provide some durability.
Houston Astros
2016: 84-78, plus-23 run differential
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 90-72
Key moves so far: Signed free-agent DH Carlos Beltran, OF Josh Reddick and P Charlie Morton; acquired C Brian McCann from Yankees; lost C Jason Castro; traded P Pat Neshek to Phillies.
There's a lot to love here, starting with that infield of Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman. Altuve may have had a peak 7.7 WAR season, but the power surge means he has become one of the game's elite stars. Correa didn't have the MVP season many expected from him as a sophomore, but he had the most underappreciated 5.9 WAR season in recent memory; it's easy to see better numbers coming. Bregman overcame that dreadful 1-for-36 start and hit .308/.355/.562 the rest of the way. Put it this way: FanGraphs projects the Astros to win 90 games with a combined WAR of just 11.6 from these three. I'll take the over on that WAR by at least four wins.
The offseason additions of Beltran, McCann and Reddick bring a switch-hitter and two lefties, giving manager A.J. Hinch much more balance and flexibility to a lineup that had the platoon advantage less than 50 percent of the time in 2016. Throw in Yulieski Gurriel, or maybe A.J. Reed putting up good numbers at first base, and the offense will be much better than eighth in the AL in runs scored.
Pitching? The secret weapon here is Joe Musgrove, who has had 186 strikeouts against just 18 walks the past two seasons in the minors and looked good in his first stretch in the majors. FanGraphs only projects 46 innings from Musgrove, but I could see him being a key cog in their rotation.
Key player: Dallas Keuchel. Maybe he doesn't bounce all the way back to Cy Young winner or even contender, but he did have a 3.87 FIP compared to 4.55 ERA, so expect better numbers.
Los Angeles Angels
2016: 74-88, minus-10 run differential
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 85-77
Key moves so far: Acquired IF Danny Espinosa from Nationals; acquired C Martin Maldonado and P Drew Gagnon from Brewers for C Jett Bandy; signed free-agent OF Ben Revere; acquired OF Cameron Maybin from Tigers; lost P Jhoulys Chacin.
The Angels were kind of the anti-Rangers, with a similar run differential but 21 fewer wins. So all they need to do is acquire the Rangers' will to win! In fact, maybe they already have: Check out that projected record.
With a maxed-out payroll, the front office strategy has been to improve the team's defense to help a rotation that was crushed by injuries in 2016. Espinosa brings power and defense to second base and Revere is a plus defender in left field, where he'll likely share time with Maybin. Maldonado is viewed as a good pitch framer. Throw in Andrelton Simmons, Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun, and the Angels could have plus defense at every position except third base.
Mike Scioscia will have to figure out the bullpen -- Cam Bedrosian may end up as the closer -- and hope Albert Pujols and C.J. Cron can combine for 60 home runs. Oh, and nothing less than another MVP, Mr. Trout.
Key player: Garrett Richards. He passed up on Tommy John surgery, electing to rehab and hope his elbow holds together. He was one of the best starters in the AL in 2014 and solid in 2015. Above all, they just need 200 innings from him to front the rotation.
Oakland Athletics
2016: 69-93, minus-108 run differential
2017 projected record from FanGraphs: 78-84
Key moves so far: Signed free-agent OF Matt Joyce; traded IF/OF Danny Valencia to Mariners for P Paul Blackburn.
The A's have been quiet this offseason. Does Billy Beane know something we don't? That projection is much better than the team appears when you scroll through an uninspiring 40-man roster, but here are a few reasons to believe in hope:
Sonny Gray returns to ace-level pitching.
Sean Manaea and Kendall Graveman are breakout candidates, especially Manaea, who impressed at times in his rookie season.
Jharel Cotton, acquired from the Dodgers in the Rich Hill-Josh Reddick trade, is a strong-armed righty who threw strikes in his five starts for the A's. That could be a sneaky good foursome that can cover a lot of other issues.
Ryon Healy doubles his numbers. A .305/.337/.524 line with 26 home runs is a nice third baseman (a few more walks would help). Even more optimistic: He's the new Josh Donaldson.
Khris Davis and Marcus Semien improve their OBPs. They combined for 69 home runs in 2016 but also had OBPs of .307 and .300. That won't work.
Matt Joyce, $5 million bargain. He had a .405 OBP in a part-time role with the Pirates in 2016. He also hit .174 the season before.
Hey, the A's came out of nowhere back in 2012, improving from 74 to 94 wins. It's baseball. You never know.
Key player: Gray.