After an initial burst of signings and a few trades, baseball's transaction machine has slowed a bit (hello, Yoenis Cespedes and Jon Jay) as we near the winter meetings. Well, alleged winter meetings given the rumblings of a lockout, which would end more than 20 years of a general cease-fire between the owners and the MLB Players Association.
Further complicating matters is the chance of a 26-man roster, changes to the qualifying offer structure, and now more remotely, an international draft -- all things that could affect a team's approach to its roster. But eventually, the free-agent market will kick into full gear -- and there are several players who have a vested interest in finding a home in 2017 as quickly as possible due to the dynamics of the market.
Jose Bautista
When large contracts are inked, fans always express loudly how risky it is for the team -- how if the player fails, the team will be saddled with an expense that might hinder the club's other moves. But what's commonly forgotten is that contracts come with risk for both parties, and there's no better example than Jose Bautista. His risk was that he would maintain his breakout performances, be underpaid, and never reach free agency while still in his prime.
And that's essentially what happened. Signed just before 2011, the first season after his breakout 54-homer performance in 2010, both Bautista and the Blue Jays took some risk in the five-year, $65 million contract. In this case, it worked out best for the Jays, who ended up paying $78 million for Bautista over six years (there was an option year with a buyout) and scored 27.9 WAR (via Baseball-Reference.com) for their investment. Getting $2.8 million for a win is quite the bonanza and you won't get that for quality free agents all that often. While it varies somewhat on the exact value of a win, I estimate that the 27.9 WAR, distributed in the fashion it was, would have cost about $155 million to obtain in the open market.
Bautista has had additional bad fortune in that the inevitable age-related decline appears to have hit him squarely and immediately before he hit free agency. And entering the 2017 season at age 36, there won't be a lot of teams willing to wave off 2016 as a total fluke; nor do his knee and toe injuries at his age help his free-agent case. In a neutral park, ZiPS projects Bautista as worth $47.3 million over three years in free agency. Had he just repeated his 2015 season in 2016, ZiPS would have projected three years, $68 million.
As weak as the free-agent market is, Bautista has a lot of competition for his skill set and his position. The Blue Jays have already signed Kendrys Morales and appear more interested in retaining Bautista's teammate, Edwin Encarnacion. You also have Mark Trumbo and now Chris Carter as competition for designated hitter jobs, in addition to Encarnacion.
And at the lower end of the market, you have Pedro Alvarez and Steve Pearce, who figure to come with a shorter commitment than Bautista. If Bautista doesn't sign fairly quickly, there's a real risk that he gets squeezed out of the market, both in terms of money and job availability. Joey Bats has displayed positional flexibility in the past, but his defense has declined to the point where there are a lot fewer thoughts of him playing third base than there were five years ago.
Mark Trumbo
When push comes to shove, Mark Trumbo's eventual contract will shed some light on how much teams value sabermetrics. Trumbo led baseball with 47 home runs and ranked sixth in the American League with 108 RBIs. He turns 31 in January -- not young, but relatively so in a very old free-agent market. Despite the glamour stats, Trumbo fares very poorly in advanced stats. His OPS+ of 120 was only slightly above average for his position, reflecting an extremely beneficial home park, a huge bump in league home run rate and a .316 on-base percentage. Whether you go with Baseball-Reference's 1.6 WAR or the 2.2 WAR from FanGraphs, he was very ordinary as sluggers go.
What makes it even trickier for Trumbo is Chris Carter being designated for assignment after the Brewers decided to not tender him a contract for 2017, a deal that would likely be worth just $8 million to $9 million for a single year. Teams are closer to each other from an analytical point of view than they were 20 years ago, so if there's not much of a clamor for Carter at this price, how would there be a significantly louder one for Trumbo?
After all, they hit most of the same checkpoints. Lots of homers? Check. About 30? Check. Low on-base percentage? Check. Plays outfield defense just slightly better than the green bin of cans and bottles I haul to the curb every other Friday? Check. The natural comparison some would like to make is Nelson Cruz, but Cruz hit far better his last year before free agency (137 OPS+) and isn't performance art-terrible defensively.
Justin Turner
There are a lot of things to recommend Justin Turner as a player, but in an odd bit of timing, a lot of the obvious candidates for him might simply be unavailable. A return to the Dodgers is the natural one, but with MLB taking a shot across Los Angeles' bow with hints about the debt-to-value rules, the team might be a little less willing to make a splashy move right now. The Giants have already praised Eduardo Nunez as their third baseman, though that could always be to establish a public position that they don't need Turner.
The other top contenders are already committed to third base in one way or another. The Blue Jays have Josh Donaldson, the Cubs have Kris Bryant, the Rangers have Adrian Beltre, and the Nationals have Anthony Rendon. Jose Ramirez isn't moving off third in Cleveland, the Mets are still going to give David Wright the first chance at third, and the hot corner seems to be the most likely position for Alex Bregman in Houston. The Orioles at this point aren't likely to turn J.J. Hardy into a supersub and put Manny Machado at short.
That just leaves Turner with Boston if the Red Sox deal with the Sandoval situation, and the Yankees if they throw in the towel on the acceptable-but-disappointing Chase Headley. Turner is old enough that he's not likely to be all that enticing to a rebuilding team. In other words, Turner's chances of getting a big payday are probably lower than his performance merits, and the waiting game does not benefit him.
Brad Ziegler
Only so many teams are going to be willing to spend a great deal of money on relievers in free agency. And unlike most other positions on the open market, there are actually quite a few top-notch closer-types available: Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon. There are only so many $6-$8 million a year relief jobs out there (and Brett Cecil among the second tier already grabbed one of them), and if Brad Ziegler doesn't sign fairly quickly, he might lose the game of musical chairs.