CHICAGO -- In terms of storylines, it doesn't get more delicious than this. The cursed versus the formerly cursed. Theo Epstein present versus Theo Epstein past. Wrigley Field versus Fenway Park. Chicago Cubs versus Boston Red Sox.
Maybe it's just a sportswriter's perspective, but the possibility seems too good to be true. Obviously, the key debate around a Chicago-Boston series would be which David has had the better final season: Ross or Ortiz? (Hey, Ross has 14 more defensive runs saved!)
By run differential, these are the two best teams in their respective leagues and in the majors overall. The Cubs have led the big leagues in that category all season, but since the All-Star break, it has been the Red Sox who have been more dominant than anyone else. On top of all the soap opera-friendly narratives, it's a fascinating baseball matchup of baseball's best run-scoring team (Boston) against the best run-prevention team (Chicago).
HITTERS
Key metric: Weighted On-Base Average
Edge: Red Sox .358, Cubs .340
The Cubs rank third in the majors with their team wOBA, compared to Boston's first, but that doesn't do justice to the Red Sox's advantage in this category. Boston's 18-point edge is the same as the difference between Chicago and 18th-ranked Milwaukee. The Red Sox and Cubs rank 1-2 in on-base percentage, but Boston has a 39-point edge in slugging. The Red Sox's home-run rate is higher, they strike out at a clip more akin to a small-ball team, and they rank just one slot behind the Cubs on the basepaths, according to the BsR metric at fangraphs.com. The Cubs' only real advantage is walk rate. These are two outstanding offensive teams, but Boston is better.
Whereas the Cubs' top duo of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo have swamped most of their counterparts in the previous installments of this matchup series, that is not the case with Boston. The ageless David Ortiz has a better wOBA than either of the Cubs' young stars, and his edge is significant. Bryant and Rizzo are 2-3, but Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez give Boston a core offensive trio that goes toe-to-toe with Bryant, Rizzo and Dexter Fowler. That's before we get to Jackie Bradley Jr. and Dustin Pedroia.
FIELDERS
Key metric: Defensive runs saved
Edge: Cubs 87, Red Sox 47
Similar to Boston's edge in hitting, the Cubs' top-ranked defense is only three spots ahead of fourth-ranked Boston. But the Cubs are a couple orders of magnitude better than all other defenses. The Red Sox rank eighth by defensive efficiency. If the Cubs' pitchers keep the Red Sox's hitters in the yard, their amazingly rangy defense might help mitigate some of Boston's edge at the dish.
That said, the Red Sox feature the top-ranked defender in all of baseball by DRS in right fielder Mookie Betts, who has saved 32 runs by that metric. Third baseman Travis Shaw (15 DRS), second baseman Pedroia (12) and Bradley Jr. (11) also crack double digits.
BENCHES
Key metric: None
Edge: None
Like the Cubs, the Red Sox have more than nine players who could be considered regulars. Chris Young is likely to platoon in the outfield with Andrew Benintendi, Aaron Hill might split time with Shaw, and Brock Holt could play ahead of any of the aforementioned players. John Farrell hasn't gone out of his way to get the platoon advantage, but when you have elite hitters at so many spots, you don't really have to concern yourself with handedness.
In the games at Wrigley Field, Farrell would have a dangerous bat on the bench, whether it's Papi, Ramirez or somebody else. From the Cubs' standpoint, you've got to like the option of hitting Jorge Soler at DH in the games at Fenway, especially against one of the two probable lefties in Farrell's playoff rotation, David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez.
STARTING PITCHERS
Key metric: ERA+ (playoff rotation)
Edge: Cubs 161, Red Sox 116
It's entirely possible that we might see a pair of Cy Young winners square off in Game 1 of a Boston-Chicago World Series at Fenway Park. Rick Porcello is a leading contender in the AL, and Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks are in the NL. Can you imagine Lester starting Game 1 against the Red Sox in his old stomping grounds? Storylines abound.
The Cubs obviously have a decided advantage in terms of season-long ERA+. That said, it's worth considering Boston's second-half showing, as Price and Rodriguez have been better in the second half than they were in the first.
Note: ERA+ is from baseball-reference.com.
BULLPENS
Key metric: Win Probability Added
Edge: Red Sox 2.60, Cubs 2.28
The Cubs' Aroldis Chapman has had a better season than Boston counterpart Craig Kimbrel when it comes to closing games. However, Boston's set-up duo of Koji Uehara and Brad Ziegler are top-notch, and Matt Barnes isn't far behind them. The one thing you wonder about the Boston pen is what lefties will make the roster who can slot against Rizzo in a big spot. Robbie Ross? Robby Scott?
Note: WPA calculated for top four relievers only and expressed on a per-100 innings basis, from baseball-reference.com.
THE SIM SAYS ...
Key metric: Head-to-head wins in 100 seven-game series simulated in Action! PC Baseball (Dave Koch Sports)
Edge: Cubs won 60 percent of series and 54.7 percent of all games.
Of the simulations we've run so far, only the Dodgers have played the Cubs more closely than the Red Sox. However, given some of the points made above, you might have expected it to be even closer than this. Really, it comes down to starting pitching. As good as Porcello has been this season, he has really outperformed his track record. The Cubs' simulated starters' ERA was 3.74 to Boston's 4.04. It's an edge -- but not a huge one.
The bigger advantage came in bullpen ERA, particularly middle relief. Whereas the Boston back-end trio (Kimbrel, Uehara, Ziegler) did fine, the Cubs really beat up the other relievers on Boston's projected playoff roster. Also, Lester's record per 162 games was 24-9, which tells you how well he pitched (2.69 ERA) and how little Porcello's real-life season translated to the simulation.