Welcome to the new and improved MLB Future Power Rankings! We've decided to change our approach since the last time we updated these last November. We tweaked the categories and their weights in our total score for each team. We added a few relevant notes per team (such as best year to win a championship and worst contract). And we even changed the writer/ranker; master projector Dan Szymborski and his ZiPS system now provide the rank and snapshot of each franchise.
So what are the Future Power Rankings? Simply put, they're an attempt to measure how well each team is set up for sustained success over the next five years.
We obviously can't project yet which team will be the best in baseball in 2030, but the near future is reaped from the seeds sowed in the present. What's to come is always uncertain, but after a century and a half of organized professional baseball, we have a pretty good idea what factors commonly lead to future success. To get an estimated score for each team, we distilled the information available into four main categories:
Current talent (25 percent of total score): This category focuses on the in-organization performance that teams are projected to have available from now until the end of the 2017 season. This is the easiest to gauge because of the shorter time horizon involved. A club's 2016 performance may not necessarily be around in 2020, so current talent is not as heavily weighted as future talent, but players who contribute now can bring in future performance.
Future talent (45 percent): This covers every bit of projected performance that teams have in their organization from 2018 onward, from veterans under contract to young major leaguers to this year's draftees. With more uncertainty, computer projections are more fallible than in the near term; to take this into consideration, I've also implemented Keith Law's farm system rankings.
Financial support (20 percent): Poor teams -- or more accurately, less-rich teams -- can in fact compete, but it would be naive to pretend that it's not trickier to keep a team like the Pittsburgh Pirates or Tampa Bay Rays in contention than the Los Angeles Dodgers. This category was developed with an index that includes historical team payrolls relative to team revenue, revenue streams and market size.
Front office (10 percent): This is a small weight, both because of the subjective nature of ranking them and because a lot of a front office's abilities are naturally going to be reflected in the current talent, future talent and, at least indirectly, the team's recent revenue. Also, building a team is more than just making a lot of good moves; it's also about having a coherent plan and using creativity and flexibility to further those plans.
Overall score: We basically rank the categories from 1 (the best) to 30 (worst), then apply our category weights. So a perfect score would be 30 (first in all four categories).
Tiebreaker: When two teams ended up with the same overall score, we used the best rank in the "Future talent" area to determine which team should be ranked higher.
No previous rank? Because so much has changed, from the categories to the category weights to even the ranker, we've decided not to compare these to the November rank. However, one thing remains the same between the two sets of rankings ...
Cubs retain top spot
While it's not the landslide it was in the November rankings, the Cubs are still numero uno. The objective for all big league front offices is to build the strongest possible organization. That's exactly what the Cubs have done.
Let's start with the major league roster. Even after missing out on the top free-agent pitchers this past offseason and losing their starting left fielder to a season-ending knee injury before the season even began, the Cubs have the strongest case for the best major league talent right now. ZiPS has their current roster with the best true-talent winning percentage in baseball from here on out, at .611, which is the best performance by any roster by ZiPS' estimation since the 2011 Yankees. Considering the Cubs have the best winning percentage so far, that's not exactly a computer giving counterintuitive analysis. But believe it or not, they've actually underperformed their run differential; an argument can be made that they've played more like a .700 team this year.
What's truly amazing about the Cubs is they have done this all without being an ancient team that sacrificed its future for present gains. Sure, Arodys Vizcaino would look nice in their bullpen right now, as would Zack Godley, but the Cubs built this roster retaining essentially all of their young talent. In fact, all top 10 players from Keith Law's top Cubs prospects heading into 2015 remain in the organization, as do eight of the 10 players on Law's 2014 list (Vizcaino and Arismendy Alcantara are the only ones missing). And that's just the farm system. In the majors are many graduated prospects with long major league careers ahead of them, players like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javier Baez and the injured Kyle Schwarber.
Supporting this bevy of current and future talent is an organization that has shown every indication that it will provide ample financial support to maintain its juggernaut status. When the Ricketts purchased the Cubs, many soothsayers predicted gloom and doom, saying they would never invest in the team. Turned out they weren't cheap; they were patient. Since the Cubs started to shift aggressively from rebuilding mode to contention after the 2014 season, they've brought in Jason Heyward, Jon Lester, Ben Zobrist, Miguel Montero, Dexter Fowler and John Lackey, among others.
President of baseball operations Theo Epstein built his reputation dispelling one curse in Boston, and now he's working on lifting the hex from the Cubs. Even as a much bigger name starting his Cubs career than his Red Sox career, Epstein started off not by being flashy, but by patiently taking the long road, ignoring the people who wanted quick fixes, and implementing the rebuilding process that is paying dividends today.
Cubs, Cubs, Cubs ... We'll be hearing about them aplenty over the next five years.
With that, here are the Future Power Rankings:
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No, they have not won a World Series yet. But yes, the Cubs are the strongest organization in baseball right now. World Series championships are decided every fall based on a few breaks going one way or the other. An organization cannot build around those chances, but what an organization can do is build the best roster possible. That's what the Cubs have -- the strongest roster in baseball.
But what gives the Cubs the top spot here isn't just the roster they have, but the legs their roster has. Players like Kris Bryant and Addison Russell are still at the beginning of their careers, and the team retains an excellent farm system, even if it's no longer as deep as that of teams like the Braves or Twins. Add in a willingness to spend money -- the people claiming that the Ricketts family would never spend money have had to eat a hefty helping of crow -- and a front office head (Theo Epstein) who already broke one curse in Boston, and you have the most dangerous team in baseball over the next several years. Whether the Cubs win a championship or not is in the hands of baseball's oft-cruel gods.
Despite the giant payroll and lofty expectations, the Dodgers are a team in transition. Andrew Friedman took over a team that inherited a lot of large contracts to underperforming players, and a great deal of the payroll inefficiency that remains is simply the last remnants of the old front office. Tricking the San Diego Padres into taking Matt Kemp sounds more like one of Rumpelstiltskin's belief-beggaring exploits than something that actually happened, but it did, and combined with the nearing ends of the Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier deals, it means the Dodgers have far less dead money than they did a few years ago.
Even for a team with the Dodgers' revenues, this matters. No team's budget is unlimited, and the front office has made lower-key signings, such as Scott Kazmir and Howie Kendrick, rather than trying to make it rain at the winter meetings. And helping matters is one of the top farm systems in baseball, one the front office resisted pillaging for short-term gains last stretch run. Add current roster, young stars, an excellent financial situation and a terrific front office together and you get a team that comes up short only to the Cubs.
Like essentially every team in the American League, the Red Sox have serious flaws that will have to be continually addressed, in this case the maddening inability of the team to fill out a consistent starting rotation.
Losing David Ortiz is tough and Dustin Pedroia will likely decline from here on out, but in Boston's favor is the youth of its most valuable contributors. Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. are all miles away from hitting the big 3-0, especially Bogaerts and Betts. The Red Sox have a solid minor league system, which will allow the team to focus its impressive financial resources on the few interesting free agents over the next few years rather than overspending to fill holes.
Yes, Texas has several very poor contracts. Elvis Andrus is having his best season in years, but is paid forever. Shin-Soo Choo is owed an obscene amount of money. And worst of all, Prince Fielder is a designated hitter who is hitting like a below-average shortstop and this week marks only the end of the first half of his contract. But the Rangers have impressive financial resources and can swallow these deals that would absolutely cripple many poorer teams.
Also a big plus to the team's future is that despite trading some excellent prospects to bring in Cole Hamels, the Rangers still retain a very good farm system. Nomar Mazara's just going to get better, Rougned Odor's non-punching skills remain underrated, and Joey Gallo and Lewis Brinson are still to come. The team's hurt by the fact that it hasn't received much out of first base or designated hitter in 2016, but because it's both money-rich and prospect-rich, that's unlikely to be a long-term state of affairs.
One big question about Washington's future was answered when the Nationals signed Stephen Strasburg, the big prize in the upcoming free-agent class, to a seven-year, $175 million contract extension that runs through 2023.
One other big question still remains: the Bryce Harper question. But even if the team loses its young megastar in a few years, it's an excellent team right now, with ZiPS projecting its roster as the second best in baseball.
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The success of the Mets is no longer speculative. They went to the World Series in 2015 and despite the offensive troubles they've had this season, they remain in the top third of teams in baseball in roster strength. And even the partially self-inflicted financial problems the team has faced aren't likely to persist forever. Lesser team in the market or not, the Mets remain a successful team playing in New York, and either the Wilpons or the team's next owners will inevitably run the Mets as a true large-market franchise.
Of all the pitching staffs in baseball, none has the projected future of the Mets' young rotation of Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and eventually Zack Wheeler. The farm system is a bit short on arms at the moment -- no farm system wouldn't be after graduating this crop -- but there are several interesting position players who match up nicely with the Mets' holes. And that's not even counting Michael Conforto, who will be back.
Every year is supposed to be the year that the Cardinals collapse, yet despite losing their starting shortstop and Adam Wainwright not bouncing back to prior form, they still manage to remain in contention. Over the past decade, the Cardinals have actually spent less in major league free agency than their cross-league rivals, the Kansas City Royals, have, despite the team's reputation suggesting that the reverse is true.
What keeps the Cardinals in contention is a front office that has always been one of the most careful, but most creative, front offices in baseball. A lot of teams would have collapsed after losing their best pitcher to Tommy John surgery and their best prospect to tragedy as the Cards did in 2015, but the team didn't turn around and make panic trades. It's not as flashy as signing David Price, but it's what has kept the Cardinals arguably the most consistent team in baseball.
Cleveland's always going to be in a tight financial situation, but the best news for the team is the rotation -- the team's largest strength -- will stay in town for a long time at a team-friendly price. The team holds team-friendly options on Corey Kluber through the 2021 season (his age 35 year), has Carlos Carrasco through 2020 without ever having to pay him $10 million in a season, and Danny Salazar doesn't hit free agency until a minimum of 2020. If you're a believer in Trevor Bauer (I tend to be more than ZiPS), he's around until at least 2020, as well.
There's also that Francisco Lindor guy. You may have heard of him.
Unless the Indians have some very bad fortune, the arms they have and a solidly above-average farm system ought to be enough for them to survive any revenue issues, at least for the next few years. It's not a perfect team, but the Indians are contending right now and their manageable costs give them a great shot at staying in contention.
For a long time, many pundits claimed that there was no chance of the Pittsburgh Pirates ever seriously competing without a drastic change in how MLB distributes revenues. Turns out that those pundits were wrong and the Pirates simply needed a front office with more imagination than the moribund regimes of Cam Bonifay and Dave Littlefield.
One of the downsides for a smaller-market team is that the occasional off-year is a bit harder to combat as short-term holes can't be filled with money. You're seeing that with the Pirates this year with the small signing of David Freese -- which has worked out far better than it had any right to -- actually having a real effect on the team's spending flexibility.
But reinforcements are on the way, and even if Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl and Tyler Glasnow aren't likely to be ready soon enough to get the Pirates anywhere near their 98 wins of 2015, they along with Gerrit Cole will form the core of the rotation of the Pirates for the next five years, which remain bright even with the possible departure of Andrew McCutchen.
I surprised myself this week when I looked at the front office rankings and saw that I now esteemed the Giants' front office more highly than the A's. This would not have been the case 15 years ago, when the Giants relied mainly on Barry Bonds to carry most of the load while making perplexing decisions such as hurriedly signing Michael Tucker minutes before a midnight deadline so that they could intentionally lose a draft pick.
But the Giants learned. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, though no longer contributors, came up through the farm system. Buster Posey, the team's entire infield when healthy, and Madison Bumgarner all came up through the team's much improved player development apparatus, and these days, when the opportunity arises to pounce on free agents like Johnny Cueto or Jeff Samardzija, the Giants jump on them. Back when Vladimir Guerrero signed with the Angels, the Giants expressed that if they had signed Guerrero, they would have been unable to sign a list of role players like Jim Brower. These days, it might have turned out differently.
That's not to say the Giants don't have challenges -- the farm system is below-average at the moment -- but they have enough resources right now that they can overcome that as long as it's not too long-term an issue.
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Houston's long rebuilding process experienced an unexpected boost in 2015 when the team reached contention years ahead of schedule. Facing actual contention rather than the prospect of possible future contention, the team shifted gears and made additions to bolster its chances. And it worked as the Astros came within two innings of reaching the ALCS until the bullpen failed to hold a four-run lead in Game 4 of the American League Division Series.
The team has an excellent front office and, even if you're not impressed with the wide assortment of talented architects the team has put together, it's impossible to deny the achievement of going from 51 to 86 wins in two years without simply signing every great free agent.
With the team struggling early in the season, Vincent Velasquez's fine run in Philadelphia while Ken Giles struggled was a bit of salt in the wound. But the Astros have played much better in recent months, though the division still looks out of reach without an epic collapse by the Rangers. The farm system certainly isn't empty and the team remains free of ugly contracts -- ZiPS likes Scott Feldman's contract the least of anyone on the roster and that's small potatoes.
The biggest plus the Braves have is the best farm system in baseball, which goes a long way. The only reason they're ranked second rather than first in future strength is that it also includes the long-term players on the roster right now, of which there are few impressive ones in Atlanta.
The new stadium will likely improve financial support, but still it's unlikely that the Braves will ever be top-tier spenders as long as they're owned by Liberty Media. And it also remains much to be seen just how good a job the front office does at actually turning the impressive bounty of prospects into a winning team.
While they've been very clever at adding prospects of all types, from the hoard they received for Shelby Miller to essentially buying Touki Toussaint from Arizona, there's also been a lack of creativity in the major league level. Even if there's no obvious top prospect to replace Jeff Francoeur right now and the seasonal record is essentially irrelevant, is there really no 26- or 27-year-old dice roll that the Braves can find over Francoeur or Nick Markakis or A.J. Pierzynski? Rebuilding isn't just about turning your top prospects into stars, it's also about finding those upside opportunities that can fill out the roster. The Reds are hardly a model franchise, but even they saw the wisdom of at least looking at players like Adam Duvall or Tyler Holt.
Despite the team's worst record since 1972, 2015 was actually the most successful season the Phillies had in a while. Simply put, it was the year that the Phillies recognized the reality that was staring them in the face, that as constructed, they were a team that had no present and no future. Philadelphia's 2015 turned its farm system from one of the worst in baseball to one of the best, the Cole Hamels and Ken Giles trades practically restocking the farm by themselves.
There was much excitement about the early run of the Phillies this season, but they were never realistically a contender. What they are realistically is a team that now has an actual future. And with the ability to spend when the time is right -- the Phillies are one of the few teams that you can see being able to afford Bryce Harper or Manny Machado in a few years -- the team could be a mirageless contender quicker than many expected when Ruben Amaro Jr. still ran things.
Don't get used to the Yankees not spending in free agency. They're the biggest team in the biggest market and their relative thrift in recent years, including not signing a single major league free agent last season, is likely to dissipate as some of the team's legacy contracts start coming off the books. Having a giant market and revenue stream is of course a pretty terrific thing for a front office, but it does come with some downsides. The Yankees' farm system is improved and ZiPS at least puts it in the above-average category, but being the biggest team in the biggest market can sometimes make retooling a difficult task to undertake.
The 2016 Yankees aren't looking like a good team with half the year in the books, but merely one that can maybe limp to a wild card if a lot of things go right for them. A lot of teams, even teams with large expectations such as the Tigers and Red Sox, have been able to retool somewhat in their down years. But the Yankees seem less likely to trade their collection of relievers than they ought to be. These kinds of moves whittle away at the team's possible future strength by prioritizing a not particularly positive present.
I tend to compare the Rockies' front office to Homer Simpson in a classic episode of "The Simpsons." When needing a plan to pass his nuclear science class, Homer's strategy is to hide under some coats during the test and hope that somehow everything will work out. The Rockies have been a lot like that, a team that always just kind of exists, merrily putting together a 76-win team every year and hoping the good years snag a playoff berth.
Are they rebuilding? Contending? Doesn't matter, just go with the flow and wait for the new calendars. So the team never gets the significant additions needed to compete nor the prospects returned from a rebuild, it's just stuff like hanging on to Justin Morneau when there was no logical reason to do so or signing Gerardo Parra.
But there's a real chance right now, if the Rockies grab it, to be more than a team content to simply exist. Nolan Arenado is one of the brightest young talents in the game, someone a team can build around. The team has an excellent farm system, full of young talent at difficult-to-fill positions. It doesn't take a genius to see the Rockies' path to winning 90 games a year, but what it will take is an actual plan to leverage these resources and get there. After more than two decades of the Rockies not doing that, color me skeptical.
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As an organization, the Twins have realized that they're in a rebuilding mode, but in practice, their implementation of that long-term plan has been awkward. The team has in fact assembled an impressive array of prospects, enough for Keith Law to rank the Twins No. 3 this winter, and ZiPS agrees with that.
But outside of assembling prospects, the team has been a disaster. Whether it's been signing pointless free-agent contracts (Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, Torii Hunter), getting over-excited about good months (hello Kurt Suzuki contract), or using their top prospects without any firm plan or patience (Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton), the Twins have done as much to stand in the way of their future as they can short of trading away the entire farm for magic beans.
The unexpectedly poor record may be a blessing in disguise for the Twins if it refocuses the front office toward addressing the team's actual challenges ahead. Minnesota's future is bright if the team can avoid standing in its own way.
The Brewers are a team that turned over the front office at just the right time and, as a result, the team actually recognized the rebuild long before the team was cleared of tradable assets. While this sounds like damning with faint praise, it's something a lot of organizations are unable to do. The Brewers will likely get a significant return for Jonathan Lucroy and at least something of interest for Ryan Braun and his contract.
Orlando Arcia is one of ZiPS's favorite prospects -- the scouting mavens like him too -- to the extent that it placed Arcia as one of the top 25 assets in baseball. And there's more of that, enough that Keith Law ranked the Brewers' minors fifth coming into the season (and ZiPS ranked them fourth).
Sharing a large market with the Cubs, the White Sox always end up playing second fiddle to the Cubs; when the Sox have a losing year, nobody ever describes them as lovable. The team has done an excellent job of realizing that it was in a position where it had to either push its chips or fold. The White Sox decided to go as big as they could within the team's established salary constraints, bringing in Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie, a catcher platoon, and taking upside plays on Mat Latos and now James Shields.
The farm system is greatly improved -- a few years ago it likely wouldn't have had the chips to swap for Todd Frazier -- but it's not an upper-echelon one, and team ownership is unlikely to really open up the wallet much more than this past offseason. The team's window is quite short-term at this moment, but there's good news in that the White Sox have very few contracts likely to bite them; ZiPS thinks that Avisail Garcia's contract, which has half a season remaining for $1 million, is actually the worst deal on the team.
It's tough being an organization without financial resources and it's even tougher when you're also in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox, two teams that have been and will remain perfectly willing to leverage their cash advantage over their rivals.
And unlike some teams that cried poor in the '90s/'00s, it's easier to feel for the Rays, a franchise that has actually achieved some significant successes rather than simply using finances as an excuse to not compete at all. The fans haven't responded to wins, however, so the Rays' model needs a very strong farm system. They can't win long-term with an average one, like the one they have right now.
The good news is that there aren't any bad contracts complicating the situation. ZiPS projects Evan Longoria as the worst contract, but that's relatively speaking -- the Rays are a careful franchise. Prince Fielder's deal is annoying for the Rangers, but it would be a franchise destroyer in Tampa.
Before getting angry that Miguel Cabrera is listed as the worst contract, remember that this is Year 1 of a very long, very expensive contract for a player who is already starting his prime decline years. Detroit's going to have a hard time competing after this season -- the results the Tigers are getting are already mixed -- but they did improve their outlook a little bit by correctly giving up on 2015 and adding a bit to a beleaguered farm system. Without throwing in the towel on 2015, they don't have Michael Fulmer today, after all.
Still, there are many challenges Detroit will face the next several years. The team will still have financial resources, but a lot of that is due to an owner who is old enough that winning right now is a primary concern. Whether the front office will have a green light to rebuild as vigorously as it did to remain in win-now mode for a long time is a question that is yet to be answered.
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The Blue Jays have been terrific at beating teams into oblivion with their bats, but the offense hasn't been quite as good in 2016. This also isn't likely to change as many of the reasons Toronto scores a lot of runs are aging and/or heading to free agency.
Marcus Stroman is far better than his ERA looks this season and Aaron Sanchez has been fine in the rotation -- the team was smart to give him every chance to succeed there -- but overall the farm system is one of the weaker ones after trading a lot of the strength away to make short-term additions. I agreed with the team going after David Price last year, but there is a long-term cost to moves like that. Toronto is a competently run team, but there's likely to be a significant down period ahead.
Baltimore's having an extremely successful 2016 to date, but there still remains trouble on the horizon when looking at the long-term fate of the Orioles. The team retains some fundamental flaws, such as a lack of depth in the rotation without many obvious ways to address this in the next couple of seasons.
The challenge the Orioles face is how to keep the team winning with a farm system that has become extremely unproductive, combined with a payroll likely near its practical maximum. Even if the payroll continues to increase, keeping Manny Machado past 2018 will likely swallow up any boost and the free-agent markets for 2016 and 2017 are not very exciting.
No, Giancarlo Stanton did not forget how to play baseball this winter. The team's outfield of Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna will remain the biggest reason to like the team's future.
Given the Marlins' rankings, I imagine you're just waiting for the "but," and there are some significant ones that always keep the Marlins a long-term question mark. The most obvious one is the financial support from team ownership. While team owner Jeff Loria will at times sign large contracts, he also tends to trade them away at nearly the earliest opportunity, and even a gigantic deal like the one given to Stanton has an out in the form of Stanton's opt-out. The combination of Loria and previous owner Wayne Huizenga may have destroyed in the near future the ability of the team to capitalize on what ought to have been a solid market.
Complicating matters is a weak farm system that would struggle to replace Martin Prado, let alone Jose Fernandez, the team's most valuable asset who is creeping toward free agency. The team is average now overall, but a poor farm system and poor financial support point to trouble on the horizon.
They won the World Series, so one can argue that their position here is almost irrelevant; they got what they came for. But there are many reasons to think we've already seen peak Royals. One of the youngest teams in baseball has become one of the oldest and, after the Royals traded a lot of their most interesting prospects in 2015's pennant run, the farm system is weaker than it has been in a long time. Reinforcements are going to be tough to come by.
No doubt the ranking of the front office will be controversial, but the fact remains that many of the short-term signings that the team has made have also caused Kansas City quite a bit of pain. Omar Infante had absolutely nothing to do with the Royals' winning the World Series, Jason Vargas' future is cloudy, and none of Kendrys Morales, Chris Young or Edinson Volquez is keeping the team in contention this season. Even Ian Kennedy's 3.96 ERA comes attached to a 5.24 FIP.
Some of the things necessary to get Seattle back into contention have happened in 2016. Most notably, Robinson Cano is playing like Robinson Cano -- the end of that contract still looks terrible, but at least he's a star contributor again. Unfortunately for the Mariners, some other things didn't happen. Hisashi Iwakuma isn't having a bounce-back season, Taijuan Walker remains inconsistent and Wade Miley hasn't been an upgrade on Roenis Elias.
GM Jerry Dipoto isn't responsible for the long-term issues of the team, only joining the franchise recently, but he still has to deal with the issues. The team's farm system is very weak and, though the team spends more money than in the days of George Argyros and Jeff Smulyan, the Mariners are still not high rollers. There's enough here to compete in 2016, but to build a consistent contender will take time and imagination.
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That the team ranks as high as 26th and isn't last in future strength is due only to the existence of Mike Trout. People always joke that Trout and 24 bad players are a contender and, while it wouldn't be quite accurate to say that the Angels' roster is universally terrible outside of Trout (Kole Calhoun is excellent and Matt Shoemaker appears to have remembered how to pitch), it's not that far off.
But as we see in 2016, Trout isn't enough single-handedly. Nor is the Angels' willingness to spend gobs of money. The Angels simply don't have the roster of a good team and their farm system is so thin that if the team didn't have Mike Trout, it couldn't trade the entire farm system for him. How the Angels become a good team again is a difficult question that money alone won't solve.
When ranking the front offices, I was shocked to see how low the Oakland A's have fallen. This is the Moneyball team, after all, and Sandy Alderson/Billy Beane were essentially the fathers of the modern front office. But that's the price of success in a way: front offices, even many of the weaker ones, are professionally run outfits and general managers are no longer simply ex-players who worked their way up the ladder and have personal control over the roster as if they were Persian satraps.
If you look at the most imaginative, clever moves in recent years, how many of them are actually A's moves? Rich Hill was a nice pickup, but remember the team paying $10 million for Jim Johnson? Signing Billy Butler? Paying market price for John Axford? Pretending this is the year Yonder Alonso will hit? A team in as sore financial straits as Oakland is has to do better than the average team at filling out the roster, but too many of the A's moves are simply too conventional. And conventional doesn't get Oakland back to a 90-win team.
Arizona paid an inflated price to make its 2016 push and to date, it hasn't worked out that well. The team now faces a similar crossroads that the Padres faced last year, whether to double down on contention, fold its cards or awkwardly stand in the intersection waiting to get run over.
San Diego chose poorly, but Arizona has yet to choke when forced to make the hard decision, which gives the Snakes a boost over their NL West brethren. But make no mistake, whatever they choose leaves them a hard road with uncertain chances of success -- there's nobody this winter who's worth giving Zack Greinke money even if Arizona's willing, and the Diamondbacks already traded their most valuable chip for Shelby Miller.
The Reds, like the Phillies, finally acknowledged that like it or not, they were in a rebuilding mode. Unlike the Phillies, the Reds have gone about it in a rather inconsistent manner, hanging on to players too long and then trading them for unimpressive hauls. As hard as it would have been to trade Todd Frazier after the All-Star Game last year, hard decisions are what teams sometimes have to make. The Johnny Cueto trade was impressive, but the eventual Frazier trade was underwhelming and the return for Aroldis Chapman, even if understandable given the off-field issues, even less so.
Cincinnati's farm system has improved as a result of the trades, but still not enough to push it into the top tier. We'll know a lot more if and when Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce and Zack Cozart are eventually traded, but right now, the inconsistent rebuilding doesn't look like it portends any future juggernauts.
And here we have team No. 30. There is no franchise in baseball that has disappointed me more over the past 18 months than the San Diego Padres. They aggressively attempted to compete in 2015, with a series of win-now trades ranking from reasonable (Shields though it hasn't worked out) to lunacy (Matt Kemp). The moves mostly didn't work out and the team responded with organizational paralysis, firing Bud Black and acting content to just hang around in baseball limbo.
Getting Manuel Margot for Craig Kimbrel was a smart move, but the Padres have done little else and now stand with a major league roster that's not good enough to win now, a farm system that still needs a lot of help to win later and not enough money to flip the script. The team already likely has seen its best opportunities to trade Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner or Derek Norris pass it by, and if the Padres don't hurry, they'll over-wait their chance to trade Fernando Rodney or run out of front offices that think Kemp's home run total makes him a good player.