St. Louis Cardinals fans collectively gnashed their teeth after Jason Heyward, this year's top free-agent outfielder, finally chose a new home on Friday.
Adding insult to injury, the former Cardinal didn't just sign with any old team, but headed straight up I-55 to join one of St. Louis' primary rivals, the Chicago Cubs. While the Cubs finished third in the National League Central in 2015 behind the Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates, their divisional bronze medal was one of the more unusual ones in MLB history, considering that Chicago won 97 games. As the 2016 season -- and even more wins -- beckon, Cubs fans are no doubt drooling at the prospect of getting a leg up on their rivals.
The question that most intrigued me heading into this offseason was whether front offices had progressed to the point where they would be willing to pay big for defense in the corner outfield. Yes, teams have paid top dollar for Gold Glovers at premium positions in the past, but we had yet to see a left fielder, right fielder or first baseman whose glove had as much to do with his stardom as his bat get top dollar. That question was answered with an emphatic yes when the Cubs gave Heyward an eight-year, $184 million contract. And Chicago wasn't the only bidder for his services.
With Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler in the corners and no obvious center field option -- prospect Albert Almora probably won't be ready in 2016 -- the Cubs will give Heyward a serious look in center. Unlike the Padres' experiment with Wil Myers last season -- in which San Diego attempted to shift the former right fielder to center, where he logged a minus-14 defensive runs saved -- Heyward is a good bet to adjust well to his new position, even if it's not at a Gold Glove level.
Because of the fact that he's likely to play center field adequately and is entering his age-26 season, far younger than most star free agents, ZiPS projects Heyward's worth in Chicago at $237 million over eight years -- which makes Heyward's actual deal eminently reasonable.
Even in an age in which nine-figure signings aren't unusual, many big-dollar contracts have worked out quite well for the team signing them. We remember the worst deals, given to sluggers such as Ryan Howard or pitchers such as Mike Hampton, but sometimes forget that these gigantic contracts can, in fact, work out.
So what are baseball's best big-dollar deals in recent history? To answer this, I went back and looked at estimated dollars per win above replacement for every year in every contract of a total value of $90 million or more, starting with the $91 million contract Mike Piazza signed before the 1999 season. Here are the 10 best, ranked by how many wins above replacement the signing team received above what they paid in salary. For players with years remaining on their contracts, I used the ZiPS projections for those seasons. (Note: For this exercise, I'm not including Heyward on this list, since he hasn't played a single season under this contract yet. If I were to rate him by projections alone, his deal would be the fifth-best big-money contract, with a +7.3 WAR.)
10. Troy Tulowitzki, SS
Contract years: 2011-2020
Result (so far, plus projected): +1.7 WAR
Halfway through his 10-year, $157.8 million contract, Tulowitzki remains on track to have earned the money the Colorado Rockies and now the Toronto Blue Jays have invested, despite failing to play in 100 games twice in the first five years. Simply put, Tulo has been a star -- occasionally playing at an MVP level -- when he's on the field, enough to counteract his relatively poor attendance. ZiPS projects Tulowitzki to average only 113 games a season over the rest of his contract, and that's still enough to make the contract work out.
9. Cole Hamels, SP
Contract years: 2013-2018
Result (so far, plus projected): +2.0 WAR
The evidence that Hamels' $144 million contract is working out so far can be found in the quality of prospects the Rangers gave up for the privilege of picking up the remainder of the deal. Now, that method isn't foolproof -- see San Diego's foolish acquisition of Matt Kemp -- but Hamels projects to continue earning his keep with the Rangers; he's an ace-level pitcher in the tier just below the Kershaws and Scherzers of MLB.
8. Carlos Beltran, OF
Contract years: 2005-2011
Result: +2.2 WAR
If anyone tells you that there's no difference between paying a superstar free agent after his age-27 and his age-29 season, go ahead and call them a liar. (And then apologize, because that's kind of harsh for a baseball argument.) By signing Beltran after his age-27 season for $119 million, the Mets avoided locking themselves into a large chunk of Beltran's decline phase. Over the first five years of the deal, Beltran led center fielders in WAR, at 27.0, ahead of such top performers as Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson and Torii Hunter. So when Beltran started breaking down physically toward the end of the contract, the Mets had already earned their money back.
7. Miguel Cabrera, 3B/1B
Contract years: 2008-2015
Result: +3.1 WAR
First basemen have the worst track record of meeting expectations, but Cabrera broke the mold a couple of years into his deal by developing from an excellent hitter into a terrifying one (if you're the pitcher). The deal also covered his age-25-32 seasons, which you'll find is a common span for deals to work out well. Don't expect to see Cabrera's upcoming deal, which starts next season, to make this list, however.
6. Felix Hernandez, SP
Contract years: 2013-2019
Result (so far, plus projected): +5.3 WAR
For this deal to be worthwhile, King Felix has to average about 4.5 WAR a season, and so far, he has been over 5. Hernandez has four years and $105 million remaining of his original $175 million contract, and you have to believe that if he hit free agency today, he'd be paid a lot more than $105 million. The Mariners have serious organizational issues, but a millstone contract around their King is not one of them.
5. Buster Posey, C
Contract years: 2013-2021
Result (so far, plus projected): +6.3 WAR
There's still a long way to go in this contract, but Posey is hitting at a level that even an eventual move from behind the plate wouldn't destroy his value so long as the Giants don't jump the gun too quickly there. San Francisco has been careful with their investment, making sure not to destroy his knees playing 140 games a year behind the plate, and ZiPS expects his bat to age well. It's looking like a winner, though nothing's guaranteed.
4. Barry Bonds, OF
Contract years: 2002-2006
Result: +9.5 WAR
While the hows, whys and therefores concerning the performance of Bonds after 1999 will always be a source of controversy, the fact remains that the Giants got that performance, and a lot of wins resulted. Even while missing essentially an entire season in 2005 (20 percent of the contract), Bonds was still third among position players in WAR, behind only Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez.
3. Scott Rolen, 3B
Contract years: 2003-2010
+10.0 WAR
At $90 million over eight seasons, the Cardinals' extension of the eternally underrated Rolen paid off quite well (and he's not the only Cardinal of that time period on this list, as you'll see). Over his contract, Rolen had seasons of 9.1, 5.8, 4.7, 4.1 and 3.9 WAR, easily enough to earn his deal. Winning only four Gold Gloves during those eight years is a shocking oversight, which likely will be surpassed when Hall of Fame voters ignore Rolen in the not-too-distant future.
2. Mike Trout, OF
Contract years: 2015-2020
Result (so far, plus projected): +15.8 WAR
While it seems almost preposterous to put Trout in a ranking of best contracts after a single season, Trout has a tendency to do preposterous things. Trout is only 24 and already has four seasons of MVP-level play, and for him to drop off significantly, for non-injury reasons, would essentially be unprecedented for players of his elite level. Even taking into account the fact that he would be getting arbitration -- and setting arbitration records, no doubt -- and wouldn't be in the open market still makes his contract a must-buy.
1. Albert Pujols, 1B
Contract years: 2004-2010
Result: +24.7 WAR
Say what you will about the Cardinals and the "best fans in baseball" ethos, the team does make a lot of very smart moves. And one of those moves was signing an easy Hall of Famer to a contract that guaranteed him wealth and kept him from hitting free agency for an additional four years. At 73.6 WAR through the end of his 20s, Pujols ranked seventh in baseball history among hitters in this measure, just behind Babe Ruth and Mel Ott and just ahead of Hank Aaron and Jimmie Foxx. (Perhaps you've heard of those guys?) Letting Pujols go to California was sad for St. Louisans, if necessary, but the silver lining for Cardinals fans is that when we see Pujols get his Cooperstown plaque in a decade, the accomplishments listed will have been mainly accrued while wearing Cardinal red.