The new international amateur free-agent signing period begins Thursday. Earlier this week, I wrote an international signing primer to lay out the rules and regulations associated with the period. Now it's time to look at the top prospects.
Below is my list of the top 10 international prospects eligible to sign during what is called the "J2 period," according to the J2 guidelines outlined by Major League Baseball. As I noted in the primer, the Los Angeles Dodgers are heavily represented here and likely will decimate the rest of the field as far as spending is concerned, as has been reported by multiple outlets, including Ben Badler at Baseball America, Kiley McDaniel at FanGraphs and Jesse Sanchez at MLB.com.
Most of the players below have been heavily attached to teams for months while a few, including Lucius Fox and Eddy Martinez, have living, breathing markets as we speak. On the whole, this class lacks generational star power but does have a half-dozen potential All-Stars and a deep middle class of about 20 players who have enough tools to project for some sort of big league value.
On to the top 10 international prospects:
1. Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Cuba
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 175
Birthdate: March 7, 1996
Alvarez was declared a free agent at the end of May, about two weeks after the deadline for being eligible to sign at the back end of the period that just ended (when the Yankees and Red Sox would have been authorized suitors). Instead, he's rumored to have a massive deal in place with the Dodgers.
Alvarez has been seen just a few times by scouts, but the stuff he has displayed in those outings has been electric. His fastball reaches 98 mph and sits in the 93-96 range, and he has flashed an above-average to plus slider and changeup. This is the kind of arm that goes off the board near the top of most Rule 4 drafts. There's a good bit of risk associated with Alvarez because scouts have had few looks at him; the plus-plus velocity he has shown might be an aberration rather than a consistent aspect of his skill set.
His command is well below average, about what you'd expect from a teenager who hasn't been facing live hitters with regularity. But the body and ease of delivery are encouraging for command projection. I consider him a potential No. 2 starter.
Top suitor: LA Dodgers
2. Lucius Fox, SS, Bahamas
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 170
Birthdate: July 2, 1997
Fox was reclassified as a July 2 signee in April when he returned home to the Bahamas after a stint at American Heritage High School in Plantation, Florida. He attended some of the marquee domestic prep showcase events last summer and has been seen by a large contingent of scouts while playing against the best prep talent in the United States. That has given teams a higher degree of confidence in his abilities than some of the other players in this class.
Fox has the best physical projection on this list. He has a sinewy, muscular frame that should add strength without costing him the speed and athleticism that allows him to play a premium defensive position right now. He has an explosive and efficient defensive first step, with the footwork and actions to stay at shortstop. His arm strength is a bit light for the left side of the infield, but scouts who have seen him more recently have noticed some improvement in that area. Offensively, Fox continues to improve as he matures physically, showing bat control and doubles power. He could be an above-average to plus hitter with fringe-average power at maturity, an offensive package that would make him a star if he becomes the plus defensive shortstop most project him to be. There's a chance his lack of arm strength forces a move to center field or second base. (Of course, in the event that baseball doesn't work out at all, Fox has an illustrious, albeit tumultuous career awaiting him at Wayne Enterprises.)
Top suitor: None yet
3. Wander Javier, SS, Dominican Republic
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 165
Birthdate: Dec. 29, 1998
Javier is the best bet in the class to remain at shortstop; he has the essential range, actions and arm strength for the position. His swing is a mess, likely a product of bad habits brought on by a desire to hit for more power in showcases than his frame would allow without mechanical overcompensation. It has gotten better as Javier's body has developed -- something that happens rapidly for many 16-year-olds -- and is trending in the direction of viability.
There's obviously plenty of time for the team that signs Javier -- rumored to be the Minnesota Twins -- to make those adjustments and get Javier hitting for contact now while his power can naturally develop as his body matures. He's a future 50 hitter (on the 20-to-80 scouting scale) with fringe-average pull power and above-average defense at shortstop.
Top suitor: Minnesota
4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., OF/1B, Dominican Republic
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 220
Birthdate: March 16, 1999
While many are concerned that Guerrero's ample lower half and generally mature body might limit him to first base, he does have the best power/hit combo in the class. There's plus-plus bat speed here, along with natural loft in his swing that should allow Guerrero the ability to hit for power without compromising much contact. What might hinder his offensive output is the same cavalier idea of what constitutes a hittable pitch that his father had, but not the freakish hand-eye coordination to make up for it. That said, he could still be an above-average to plus hitter on hand talent alone and hit for plus power.
He'll need to get close to those grades to profile at first base or left field, his two most likely destinations, as he lacks prototypical right field arm strength.
Top suitor: Toronto Blue Jays
5. Eddy Julio Martinez, CF, Cuba
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 195
Birthdate: Jan. 18, 1995
Martinez offers physical safety. Because he's 20 1/2 years old, scouts have a much better idea of what his body is going to look like in his physical prime simply because he's closer to it than everyone else on the list. One other thing worth noting: Martinez is built like an action figure.
This kid can fly, and he has the physical tools to stay in center field, but it's tough to find scouts who have seen much of him there and feel confident that he has the feel for tracking balls from dead center. If he doesn't, his arm does profile in right field, where more scrutiny will be placed on his bat. Martinez has some barrel control and bat speed, but his hitting actions are a bit clunky and deliberate, and the swing can get long. He has average raw power, most of which comes from unrefined strength rather than an efficient swing. If, through reps and athleticism, Martinez can loosen up his body and swing, he could be an impactful offensive player and all-around asset if he stays in center.
Top suitor: None yet
6. Gilberto Celestino, CF, Dominican Republic
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 165
Birthdate: Feb. 13, 1999
Celestino's precocious feel for center field and above-average (and rising) speed and arm strength make him the best defensive outfielder in this class. While he's young and frail, his body offers lots of positive projection and is more likely to fill out than most of the other skinny prospects in the group. Another positive: The slender Celestino didn't compromise his natural swing to show more power during workouts, which helped him hit well against live pitching and gives his new club less to worry about developmentally. While he projects to have only a 50, maybe 55, bat, and fringe power, that's a respectable output for someone who plays plus defense in center field.
Top suitor: Houston Astros
7. Leodys Taveras, CF, Dominican Republic
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 165
Birthdate: Sept. 8, 1998
Taveras looks natural in center field and should add some speed as he gets stronger, which would seal the deal on a premium defensive home for him. His swing is balanced and clean from both sides of the plate, though his bat control from the right side is much more advanced right now. He'll likely be an average hitter in time and has a chance to grow into average power.
Taveras doesn't have a single elite tool to hang his hat on -- it will likely be a Texas Rangers hat, by the way -- but he projects to have a well-rounded collection of tools and stay in center field. Physically, most J2-eligibles are either "thick-legged" threats to overgrow and move to an outfield corner or first base, or they're so skinny that there's a chance they never fill out enough to compete at the upper levels of the minors. Taveras is built in a way that inspires confidence in his physical future.
Top suitor: Texas
8. Starling Heredia, OF, Dominican Republic
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 215
Birthdate: Feb. 6, 1999
Heredia looks more fluid and loose during batting practice than he does in games, when his swing can get very complex and difficult to time consistently. But even if it doesn't always look very pretty, the tools for an impact player are there. Heredia has an above-average arm, can run well enough to stay in center field despite his already-stocky build and has plus bat speed and rare power for someone with a chance to stay in an up-the-middle position.
That said, scouts look at Heredia's thick body and can't help but wonder if he'll blow up and move to left or right field, and if that's the case, whether he'll be able to keep his high-maintenance swing in check and hit enough for a corner spot. He has a true five-tool, All-Star ceiling, but will have work to do on the field and in the weight room to get there.
Top suitor: LA Dodgers
9. Jhailyn Ortiz, OF/1B, Dominican Republic
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 260
Birthdate: Nov. 18, 1998
Ortiz has the loudest thunder -- legit 70 raw power -- on this list. Scouts are divided on whether he'll get to it in games, though. Some are turned off by how he looked in showcase events, while others are confident that he's loose and twitchy enough to make adjustments and put the bat on the ball as he climbs the organizational ladder.
Some claim that Ortiz is athletic enough to be passable in an outfield corner, but it's hard to envision a 16-year-old who is already this size keeping his body in check and playing anywhere other than first base. Power-first bats who are already on the wrong end of the defensive spectrum have a high failure rate, but no other prospect on this list has a tool as potentially impactful as Ortiz's power. And lately, the Philadelphia Phillies -- the rumored suitors for Ortiz -- have targeted players like this, with mixed results.
Top suitor: Philadelphia
10. Gregory Guerrero, SS/3B, Dominican Republic
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 175
Birthdate: Jan. 20, 1999
While most of the other players on this list are tooled-up lottery tickets who need years of polish, Guerrero has good feel right now for both hitting and fielding. He lacks the explosive athleticism and arm strength to play shortstop and won't have the physicality of a middle-of-a-lineup hitter because his frame is on the small side, but Guerrero is otherwise solid across the board. It's easy to see his defensive actions and arm sliding over to third base and playing as above average, while he has advanced control of above-average bat speed and should hit well enough to profile there as long as some of the unnecessary noise in his load is toned down.
Guerrero could be an average regular or slightly above that, and he'll move through a team's system quicker than the other players in this class even though he's among its youngest.
Top suitor: New York Mets
Just missed the top 10 (with rumored team in parentheses): Sweet-swinging Venezuelan shortstop Andres Gimenez (Mets) has 55 or 60 hit-tool projection, but he's small and lacks both power and physical room to grow into it. ... Panamanian catcher Miguel Amaya (Cubs) is the best defensive catcher in the class and has a frame that should allow him to get stronger and hit just enough to play every day. ... Dominican outfielders Seuly Matias (Royals) and Cristian Pache (Braves) have tool packages similar to Taveras but are far less likely to fill out than he is.
Other international buzz
• The headline prospect in Japan is flame-throwing Nippon Ham Fighters righty Shohei Otani, whose fastball has touched 100 mph -- that's 160 kph for you metric lovers out there -- and has an above-average curveball. He's carving up hitters in one of the best leagues on earth at just 20 years old, but is reportedly years away from being posted by the Fighters.
• A player more likely to hit the posting market soon is Hiroshima Carp righty pitcher Kenta Maeda, who will be an unrestricted free agent in 2017 and likely will be posted before then so Hiroshima can cash in before he leaves for nothing. Maeda isn't as electric as Otani, or as young (Maeda is 27), but he has a deeper, more polished repertoire, throws strikes and earns scouting grades that are in line with a mid-rotation starter.
• The huge name for next year's J2 class is Venezuelan SS Kevin Maitan, a monstrous teenager with an elite body, advanced feel to hit and big-time power projection. He has been on the radar for international scouts for years and is being compared to some generational talents. A scout I talked to whose team has no prayer of signing Maitan said his club has an overall 70 grade on him, the sort of grade that players near the apex of top 100 prospects lists only sometimes garner. And three sources have told ESPN colleague Keith Law that the Atlanta Braves have already locked up Maitan for $4.25 million in advance of the July 2, 2016, signing period. As Keith noted, such deals are "technically prohibited but are de rigueur in that market."