To kick off my look at the best prospects in the minor leagues this week, I've ranked all 30 MLB farm systems from top to bottom, considering only the players who are currently in their systems and who have not yet exhausted their rookie of the year eligibility. (I use the same criterion for the individual player rankings that will be posted over the next three days.)
Similar to last year, there are only a handful of systems that combine both a few high-impact or high-ceiling prospects and also have depth down to and past the end of their top 10 list. (My top 10 rankings by team will be released on Thursday and Friday.)
Many systems ranked in the teens boast a couple of very good prospects -- say, one or two guys who project as above-average regulars, and another two or three who might be everyday guys -- and then it's bench parts and relievers. Those players are good to have, as you'd much rather fill those spots with minimum-salaried players than have to reach out to free agency, but their asset value is much lower than the values of prospects who project as average or better.
One last point: Of my top 10 farm systems, only three are "large market" teams (although the proper term would be "high revenue"). Scouting and player development are still the best way to build a competitive major league team, and while some extra money in scouting helps, success in either area is far more a function of the people you employ than the money you throw at the players. Good organizations hire and retain good people, enact strong processes and then execute them -- even when fans or writers don't see the big picture.
On the one hand, when you pick first overall every year, you should probably end up with a pretty good farm system, and the Astros' top five prospects are all first-round picks. On the other hand, the Astros have done everything they needed to do to restock what was a few years ago the worst system in the majors, like exceeding MLB's recommended signing bonuses for Lance McCullers Jr. and Rio Ruiz in 2012, or landing prospects like Jonathan Singleton, Domingo Santana and Asher Wojciechowski in trades.
They've become more aggressive in Latin America, as well, after years of dormancy following the departure of legendary Venezuelan scout Andres Reiner in 2005, and have been willing to endure some brutal seasons at the major league level in pursuit of the goal of strengthening the weak system. They have depth and they have a couple of high-ceiling guys at the top of the system, getting close to the point where the light at the end of the tunnel no longer looks like an oncoming train. It's been ugly, Astros fans, but hang in there.
The Twins have more high-end talent -- I'm referring to players who have both high ceilings and also have a reasonable probability of getting close to those ceilings -- than any other organization right now. They have a pair of potential future MVP candidates in Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, with more power arms than this system has had in ages. They don't quite have Houston's depth, but the gap between the systems is quite small.
Almost everything went right for the Pirates in 2013 -- and I'm only talking about their farm system. They bounced back from failing to sign their first-round pick in '12, Mark Appel, by landing the best prep hitter in last year's class in Austin Meadows, while several prospects already in the system took huge steps forward into my overall top 20.
4. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are absolutely loaded with bats, but they could use a few arms; either arm, not terribly picky, must throw at least 92 mph.
Their top four prospects are all impact position players, three because of how they'll hit, one (Albert Almora) because of his defense/offense combination. With those prospects joining what they already have in the majors, they could have one of the NL's best offenses by 2016.
They rival Houston for the best top 10 of any team, with as many prospects on the top 100 as the Astros have, and while they don't have Houston's depth, Boston's system is pretty deep, with at least a half-dozen pitching prospects who reasonably project (that is, not just pie-in-the-sky forecasting) as No. 4 starters or better.
And that ignores the part about their best prospects being position players who hit and most of whom play very good defense. When a defensive whiz like Christian Vazquez, a catcher who can hit a little, can't crack your top 10, you're doing a lot of things right.
The turnaround in this system is remarkable, especially when you consider they have not had a top-10 pick since they took Matt Harvey in 2010, and it puts the Mets in excellent shape relative to the other four teams in their division.
The decisions to trade R.A. Dickey and Marlon Byrd look even better in hindsight. The Mets also have one of the minors' best collections of pitchers who throw strikes but aren't strictly finesse guys.
The first wave of top Royals prospects hit Kansas City over the past two years, but most of them haven't come close to expectations yet -- although I think Eric Hosmer has finally turned that corner. The next group is less hyped, but might be just as good, with power arms leading the way and a couple of strong bats.
This wave of talent is shallower than the last one, but the Royals' biggest window of contention is going to start very soon.
A sneaky-good system, although with Eddie Butler and Jonathan Gray throwing 98 mph tablets by hitters I doubt the Rockies can keep their prospect depth on the QT. They've generally been a productive club in Latin America despite avoiding the biggest bonus babies, and I'm in the camp that assumes that 2012 first-rounder David Dahl will return this April without missing a beat.
The Padres were my top system two years ago and graduated a lot of that depth to the majors. However, they filled the void nicely with two more solid drafts, helping make up for lost seasons from Casey Kelly and Rymer Liriano (both of whom missed 2013 due to Tommy John surgery).
Their recent trade for major league reliever Alex Torres also included Jesse Hahn, another power arm to add to the system, but he missed their top 10 behind several pitchers with a better chance to remain starters.
Very top-heavy, but a strong front five, all on the top 100, due in no small part to a string of four straight solid first-round picks since the Matt Hobgood fiasco. (Hobgood, the No. 5 overall pick in the 2009 draft, has a 5.05 ERA in his career and hasn't made it past Class A.)
Their depth is improving, though it's still behind where it'll need to be to keep the club competitive in the AL East, and more investment in intriguing international amateurs like Olelky Peralta will help bolster the system.
Also a very top-heavy system, like Baltimore's, with two elite guys at the top and three solid guys after, followed by a lot of reliever/fifth starter depth. They did have some intriguing arms in short-season ball who could push this system's overall value up a lot by next year, especially since none of their top eight prospects are likely to lose eligibility in 2014.
The Cardinals have produced so much homegrown talent over the past five years that it's hard to believe they're still above the median, but with potential superstar Oscar Taveras on top, a half-dozen more prospects who project as regulars or better, and lots of pitching and bench depth, they're poised to keep stocking the major league team for several more years. One system weakness, though, as you might have heard: shortstop.
13. Texas Rangers
Most of the talent here is very young and likely three years away, but there is as much All-Star potential in this system as there is in just about any of the systems after the top five -- just a lot less probability, as guys like Joey Gallo or Lewis Brinson could be elite big leaguers just as easily as they could wash out in Double-A.
Similar to Texas but with fewer prospects who are potential grade 65 or better players in the majors. I thought the Phillies had one of the best drafts, perhaps the best of anyone, in 2013, landing a few high-ceiling high school kids -- such as shortstop J.P. Crawford -- while mixing in some solid college bats like catcher Andrew Knapp.
A lot of high-ceiling pitching here, which is probably a good strategy for a team that plays in a hitter's park 1,100 feet above sea level, but light on near-term position players other than shortstop Chris Owings.
One bright spot on the hitting side: Brandon Drury, who looked like a throw-in to the Justin Upton trade, but broke out with a big year for low Class A South Bend and may help salvage a mostly disastrous trade for the D-backs.
16. Cincinnati Reds
Plenty of outfielders and power arms here, light up the middle and possibly light on starting pitching candidates after Robert Stephenson. At worst, they'll put a pretty good bullpen together on the cheap from all of those A-ball starters, a group that includes 2012 first-round pick Nick Travieso.
Danny Salazar reaching the majors was great for the system, but deletes him from the Indians' top 10, and they had several prospects who had disappointing years, none more than former No. 3 overall pick Trevor Bauer, whose stuff wavered and who couldn't throw strikes. Aggressive promotions for Dorssys Paulino and Jose Ramirez hurt their performances, although both are still promising middle infield prospects.
The Nats' system has a little more depth than it's had in several years, but most of their elite prospects have already graduated, with only Lucas Giolito in the overall top 50. Their list's caliber drops off quickly after six or seven names.
19. Miami Marlins
They keep graduating guys like Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich faster than most other organizations would, which doesn't help their ranking but also is one positive way that the front office has bucked the industry. They don't stash good players in the minors to manipulate service time -- when a kid shows he might be ready, he's up to sink or swim. This will be a big year for some starter prospects in the system who may be on the cusp of a move to the pen.
20. New York Yankees
It seemed like everyone who mattered in this system got hurt in 2013, and of those who didn't most had disappointing years. The good news is every one of the injured prospects should be healthy to start 2014 (except Slade Heathcott, for whom "healthy" is an abstract concept), but it also means the Mason Williamses and Tyler Austins of the system will run out of excuses if they don't hit.
A strong day one draft class in 2013 -- when they had three of the top 33 picks -- helped boost the system.
21. Seattle Mariners
The M's graduated three top prospects to the majors in 2013 in Mike Zunino, Nick Franklin and Brad Miller, so there's less on the farm now after the two starting pitchers (Taijuan Walker and James Paxton) who are on the cusp of helping the big league team. Their Class A clubs will be the teams to watch if you're looking for prospects.
22. Atlanta Braves
A very top-heavy system, led by first-rounder Lucas Sims and Panamanian catcher Christian Bethancourt, but years of subpar drafts as well as trades to bolster the major league team have thinned the system out. Atlanta is the only team with two undrafted (yet draft-eligible) free agents in its top 10 prospects.
23. Tampa Bay Rays
Years of good trades helped keep the Rays near the top of the list since I started compiling these rankings, but they've been crushed by the graduations of Wil Myers and Chris Archer last year plus several unproductive drafts -- when Kevin Kiermaier and Tim Beckham reached the majors in September, they were the first players drafted and developed by the Rays to suit up for the team since David Price and Matt Moore from the 2007 draft.
The Rays have been hurt by on-field success that gives them lower picks and limits their draft and international bonus pools, but they haven't fared well even within those limits.
It's tough to trade away three top 100 prospects, as the Jays did last winter, and maintain a strong system, but the Jays compounded that problem by failing to sign their first overall pick (Phil Bickford) for the second time in three years.
The Jays can afford to trade prospects if they're hitting on high draft picks, but they haven't done so often enough other than the selections they ended up dealing.
The Giants have a lot of high-floor arms in their system and a couple of intriguing up-the-middle bats, but not quite enough of either to overcome a lack of high-ceiling (potential star) prospects after hard-throwing Kyle Crick. They are in position to use that pitching depth to make a midseason acquisition if they need to this year, which wasn't true of their system going into 2013.
The A's have one of the youngest top 10s of any team in the majors, but aside from budding superstar Addison Russell, most of their talent is far away and still very uncertain.
The ranking doesn't reflect it yet, but this system is headed in the right direction thanks to better drafts, including a few surprises from later-round picks. I did not include Cuban defector Jose Abreu in any rankings, as he's 27 years old, but the Sox would be higher if he counted in their favor.
28. Detroit Tigers
This system boils down to third baseman Nick Castellanos and a lot of power arms who seem like probable relievers, as well as some slick defensive middle infielders, any of whom could establish himself as a valuable asset with a year of offensive production. I'd like the system more had the Doug Fister trade yielded a top-50 prospect, as you'd expect given Fister's performance the past two years.
An awful system after years of lost first-round picks and trades to bulk up the major league team, it improved marginally in 2013 with some new arms, but regression from most of the top position player prospects in the system was a huge disappointment.
There may not be a player in this system who projects as an above-average player in the majors; the best bets are all teenagers who played in low Class A or below in 2013, and none is close to a lock to get there.
The system lacks ceiling and it lacks depth beyond reliever candidates and likely fourth outfielders, with nothing in the middle of the diamond and no starting pitching of note.