Sure, it's nice to have baseball's best farm system -- but the truth is that it's still one degree removed from the thing you actually want. Baseball franchises want to win games -- and if you aren't a winning team, at least a good farm system is a nice consolation.
Some teams near the bottom of these farm system rankings are there because they're either winning all the time (often subtracting prospects as often as they're adding them) or have recently graduated a bunch of good young core players and are waiting on the next wave(s). Those are both great outcomes and how this is supposed to work.
As you peruse (other than checking in on your favorite team), focus on the teams that don't fit this rubric: losing teams near the bottom of the farm rankings or contenders near the top. These are the two groups where general managers get fired (the former) and the clubs from which their replacements will be chosen (the latter). The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays are seen as the gold star examples -- perennial contenders with top-tier farm systems that every team is trying to copy.
The dollar amounts for each farm system come from projecting what each is expected to do using historical examples. With that, it's pretty easy to project how much they'll be paid in their six-plus cost-controlled years for that projected performance, adjust for time value of money/performance, apply the price teams pay per win on the free agent market for how much that performance is worth, and poof: each player has a dollar value. Then, you simply add up the values for each prospect and have the surplus value of the whole farm system. The latest version of these calculations was done at FanGraphs by Craig Edwards.
1. Baltimore Orioles: $373 million
If I've been rolling my eyes at the Dodgers and Rays being player development machines, I should be rolling both eyes at the Orioles right now, too. They've had nearly three uninterrupted years of having both the top prospect and the top farm system in baseball. GM Mike Elias deserves a lot of praise for just the stuff below the big league level: overhauling the staff and its methods while also nailing the actual scouting and development. He's brought the best parts of the Astros' approach (while leaving the odious parts behind). His next challenge is to try to reconfigure the upper minors and big league talent to subtract a few position players and add a few starting pitchers without losing too much value.
That said, this issue doesn't have to be solved internally or via trade. Baltimore's payroll is $65 million. That is the benefit of a team full of young players: You can spend the bulk of the payroll on just a few players to complement the core you've created. The Orioles could literally spend $100 million of the 2024 payroll on pitching this winter and still have a payroll that's fourth in the division and well under the luxury tax. Would Orioles fans like to add Aaron Nola, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (a 25-year-old who might be the best pitcher to come over from Japan since Shohei Ohtani), Blake Snell, Josh Hader and Jordan Hicks? Or maybe Ohtani, Snell and Yamamoto?
2. Chicago Cubs: $287 million
Somewhat like with the White Sox, I wasn't sure if the Cubs reload/rebuild was going well entering this season. They spent money in free agency and made moves at the trade deadline, but it wasn't clear if the high upside sort of players they had acquired in the teardown were progressing.
Now the big league team is competing a bit ahead of schedule. Pete Crow-Armstrong, a somewhat divisive player who was the return for Javier Baez, continues to tick up. Ben Brown, one of last year's trade deadline adds, is on the verge of being a big league factor, and last year's surprise first round pick, Cade Horton, might be on track to be the best pitching prospect in baseball by this time next year. We're getting close to the point where it could be tricky to fit everyone on the 40-man roster without blocking a prospect in Triple-A, while still staying competitive at the big league level. That's a nice problem to have.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates: $273 million
Pittsburgh's hot start didn't last, but the Pirates are now also reaching a critical mass of young talent. But it might not be that way for much longer. The Pirates' system has been successful recently. Pittsburgh's four through nine hitters graduated in the past 12 months, as did six other players who are currently on IL. Eight of the team's 13 active pitchers also graduated with the past year.
Paul Skenes, the top pick in the 2023 draft, will likely be a part of that group as soon as Opening Day next season. Termarr Johnson, Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones, Thomas Harrington, and Anthony Solometo are all potential core pieces who are outside that group but could also be in Triple-A by next season. It's just a total mess of young players with the potential to be difference makers -- all currently in the big leagues, or having just been or about to be. Sorting this group into a coherent big league roster, while still improving the talent, will dictate if this regime is seen as a success.
4. Texas Rangers: $270 million
One of the most underrated stories in baseball this year is that as big-market clubs like the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox either publicly or privately state their desire to follow in the footsteps of the Dodgers and Rays and have a sustainable contending big league team with a perennially top-10 ten farm system, the Rangers very quietly appear to have done just that. They grabbed my top prospect in the draft at the fourth pick in Wyatt Langford and have the second-most exciting recent international signee (behind Ethan Salas) in Sebastian Walcott. Evan Carter could be an impact big leaguer next season, and there's about a dozen prospects behind those three who project to be at least solid big leaguers.
5. Milwaukee Brewers: $269 million
The Brewers' farm is cresting, as Jackson Chourio has settled in as a top-five prospect in the sport, Sal Frelick still qualifies despite having a WAR over 1.0 in the big leagues, Abner Uribe also qualifies and is hitting 100.7 mph out of the big league bullpen, and Jeferson Quero, Tyler Black and Jacob Misiorowski are all Top 100 types. Those players could all graduate in the next 12 months, but the Brewers have been garnering acclaim in the industry for their last two drafts, particularly their late round flurry of local prep players this season.
6. Los Angeles Dodgers: $260 million
As mentioned, the Dodgers are one of only a few teams who are regularly constructing multiple waves of talent, only occasionally falling out of the top 10 in farm rankings if a bunch of those players all graduate at the same time. The Dodgers had an incredible group of pitchers open the season in the Double-A rotation (Nick Nastrini, Kyle Hurt, River Ryan, Nick Frasso, Emmet Sheehan, Landon Knack) and there might be three more big leaguers on that staff that I didn't name. Nastrini went to the White Sox along in the Lance Lynn/Joe Kelly package. Sheehan showed flashes in the big leagues and the others seem to be options for next season. Meanwhile, the Triple-A staff included Bobby Miller (their second-best big league starter this season) along with two more Top 100-150 types in Gavin Stone and Ryan Pepiot. Oh, and at least their top two current prospects are position players along with three of their top five prospects that graduated this season (¯\_(ツ)_/¯).
7. Washington Nationals: $258 million
The Nats' farm system was ranked 24th two winters ago, then 13th at the beginning of the season. It's now seventh, helping illustrate the reloading done by GM Mike Rizzo. Washington graduated C.J. Abrams, Keibert Ruiz, MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray (all acquired via trade) with the prospects from the tops of recent drafts (Dylan Crews, Elijah Green and Brady House) and international signing periods (Cristhian Vaquero) joining more trade acquisitions (James Wood, Jarlin Susana, Robert Hassell).
8. Tampa Bay Rays: $245 million
The Rays keep on Rays-ing -- being a top-10 farm system for what seems like forever despite also contending that entire time. They graduated Luke Raley, Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, Jonathan Aranda, Vidal Brujan and Josh Lowe in the past year and now have prospects Curtis Mead and Osleivis Basabe in the big leagues. Their next wave is headlined by (more) potential impact infielders in Junior Caminero and Carson Williams, while the next five names behind them are also all infielders. I would worry that the Rays have only two pitchers in my current top 20, but they seem to be able to turn some pocket lint, a few paper clips and a coffee filter into a serviceable bullpen arm.
9. Minnesota Twins: $243 million
The Twins have graduated Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien this season as they continue to produce useful big league position players. The top of their system is headlined by three more: Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee (their past two first-round picks) and Emmanuel Rodriguez. There are some potential impact arms in Marco Raya, David Festa, Charlee Soto, Connor Prielipp and Matt Canterino, though their paths to that outcome aren't quite as easy to project.
10. San Diego Padres: $238 million
The Padres, who gutted the system to prop up the big league team in recent years, are good enough at identifying top talent that they still have two of the top 10 prospects in the sport. Jackson Merrill was held back in Juan Soto trade discussions and Ethan Salas might be the best international signee in years. The Pads know upside pitching, and Dylan Lesko, Robby Snelling, Jairo Iriarte and Adam Mazur have been arrow-ups the past year, while recent draftee and 80 runner Dillon Head is already impressing.
11. Detroit Tigers: $237 million
I loved their draft haul, headlined by Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle. There's been a distinct flavor at the top of the system with players either notably improving (Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, Colt Keith) or holding their value. There have been some mini-breakouts on the pitching side (Troy Melton, Brant Hurter), but many of the top prospects are in the upper minors, so this new regime will need to continue adding talent as top prospects graduate to really turn this ship around in the big leagues.
12. Cincinnati Reds: $234 million
The Reds were briefly the top farm system in baseball, but then Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Andrew Abbott graduated and cost them nearly $200 million in prospect value. The good news is there's still a lot in the upper minors to supplement that core. 3B Noelvi Marte, SS Edwin Arroyo and RHP Connor Phillips are the top three prospects in the system and collectively constitute the return for Luis Castillo. Lyon Richardson and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are prospect eligible but have made big league debuts. Chase Petty, Cam Collier, Rhett Lowder and Sal Stewart headline the next wave.
13. Chicago White Sox: $230 million
There's some good stuff going on here: Colson Montgomery is the No. 2 overall prospect in the majors, Noah Schultz is continuing to progress and the talent added at the trade deadline was solid. On the negative side, I'm not sure there's an impact player outside of those two, but the White Sox have been a bottom-five farm system for the past two seasons, so it's a nice change to have some depth and, potentially, some real big league help in the minors.
14. Boston Red Sox: $218 million
There's not a ton of impactful pitching in the system, but the Red Sox have done a nice job of continuing to add position players to the system while their top two rookies (Triston Casas and Brayan Bello) have been solid in the big leagues. I don't think there's a future star in this group, but Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony offer the best chance. The next group consists of either wait-and-see types like Miguel Bleis and Ceddanne Rafaela or more solid-than-spectacular types like Kyle Teel, Blaze Jordan, Nick Yorke and Mikey Romero.
15. New York Yankees: $216 million
Graduating Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza hurts their ranking here, but there are two groups of position players coming. At the upper levels, Jasson Dominguez, Spencer Jones, Everson Pereira, Trey Sweeney and Austin Wells should be able to help the big league team in the next year or two. A few levels behind them, Roderick Arias, Brando Mayea and George Lombard Jr. have above-average, everyday upside, and the pipeline of non-first-round college arms continues to churn, with Chase Hampton, Drew Thorpe, Will Warren and Richard Fitts.
16. New York Mets: $215 million
The Mets' farm ranking has been a roller coaster this season. They opened the season at 12th, then moved up briefly as the soon-to-graduate Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos found varying levels of success while top prospects from rival clubs graduated. Then, those three Mets all graduated and took nearly $120 million of prospect value off the table, moving the Mets way down this list. After a solid draft headlined by Colin Houck, the Mets added prospects at the trade deadline, and Jett Williams' stock continued to rise. Now they're almost back to where they started the season.
17. San Francisco Giants: $203 million
What looked to me like a stagnant farm system is starting to really show dividends. Patrick Bailey will get Rookie of the Year votes, while Blake Sabol and Ryan Walker have been useful and Luis Matos, Sean Hjelle and Casey Schmitt earned long big league looks. At the minor league level, the early returns on the top of the 2022 draft class (Carson Whisenhunt and Reggie Crawford) have been strong, while Hayden Birdsong, a later-round sleeper, has already materialized. I loved the top of their 2023 draft class (Bryce Eldridge and Walker Martin), and Marco Luciano and Kyle Harrison are dialing in their final adjustments in Triple-A.
18. Colorado Rockies: $192 million
The Rockies don't have a long list of standout organizational advantages, but signing and developing position players is a good one to boast. Adael Amador, Dyan Jorge and Yanquiel Fernandez all offer Top 100 quality coming from the international program, while Sterlin Thompson and Jordan Beck, from the 2023 draft class, are already showing positive signs. A rash of Tommy John surgeries amongst Colorado's top pitching prospects is worrisome, but opening up its "type" of pitchers to include the top-of-the-zone four-seam fastballs of Chase Dollander and Sean Sullivan is a welcome change.
19. Philadelphia Phillies: $191 million
There's a hope that Andrew Painter returns from Tommy John surgery next season, Mick Abel's command makes the expected jump, Griff McGarry joins the big league staff and Johan Rojas sticks in the majors. It probably won't all work out like that over the next 12 months, but there is a tier of immediate help, with quite a gap behind it. Justin Crawford, Aidan Miller, Starlyn Caba and William Bergolla have the potential to headline that next wave as upside position players, but they're a ways off.
20. Oakland Athletics: $182 million
Oakland has also graduated a number of players in the past year: Ken Waldichuk, Esteury Ruiz, Kyle Muller, Luis Medina, Shea Langeliers and Jordan Diaz, among others. Zack Gelof, Tyler Soderstrom and Lawrence Butler still count as prospects but are in the big leagues. Because of that, Oakland will likely move down further before the winter update to this list.
21. Cleveland Guardians: $180 million
The Guardians were the third-ranked farm system to start the season but graduated a number of players this spring. Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Bo Naylor, Logan Allen, Gabriel Arias and Tyler Freeman have all been on the Top 100-150 in recent years. Cleveland has reloaded again, albeit without anyone in the top half of the current Top 100 but with lots of potential breakthrough types. The Guardians will likely slowly move up this ranking over the next year until those players make their debuts or move into the Top 100.
22. St. Louis Cardinals: $172 million
The Cards have recently graduated potentially or already impactful talents in the past year in Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Matthew Liberatore, Brendan Donovan, Ivan Herrera, Zack Thompson, Andre Pallante, Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson. St. Louis now has another wave in the upper minors led by Masyn Winn and Tink Hence, but it's hard to be a top-tier system after losing that much talent.
23. Seattle Mariners: $168 million
I love what the Mariners did with their top picks in the 2023 draft (SS Colt Emerson, CF Jonny Farmelo and SS Tai Peete). That came after getting strong results with other prep position players in SS Cole Young and C Harry Ford, who are their top two prospects. SS Michael Arroyo, RF Gabriel Gonzalez, SS Felnin Celesten and LF Lazaro Montes headline the steady flow from the international program, but graduations and trades have thinned things out a bit.
24. Arizona Diamondbacks: $154 million
The D-backs were the second-rated farm system at the beginning of the season but ended up down here for the right reason -- because graduated prospects from the past two seasons are impacting the big league team. That list includes Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno, Geraldo Perdomo, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Emmanuel Rivera, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, Drey Jameson, Tommy Henry and Kyle Nelson. Jordan Lawlar is close to joining that group, but the next tier on their list includes the scuffling Druw Jones and a number of new draftees and lower minors types.
25. Toronto Blue Jays: $153 million
The Jays are a big-market perennial contender in the toughest division in baseball. They've made savvy picks of upside prep players in the past few drafts, but those prospects will need to start showing returns -- the top two prospects (Ricky Tiedemann and Orelvis Martinez) in the system are close to debut time.
26. Kansas City Royals: $107 million
I generally don't love the approach of taking a non-consensus prep talent in the top 10 picks and then spending the savings on even more risky prep prospects after that. The Royals did it in 2021 and again in 2023. Considering those contrarian moves against the backdrop of a bottom-five farm system and the second-worst record in baseball makes you wonder what the plan is.
27. Miami Marlins: $95 million
The Fish graduated Eury Perez, the top pitching prospect in baseball, earlier this season but haven't had any prospects make a big step forward into Top 100 quality who would cause them to move up the board. Righty Max Meyer should be returning soon from Tommy John surgery, while lefty Dax Fulton was trending toward the Top 100 before going down with the same issue this spring. Karson Milbrandt is the arrow-up name from the 2022 draft class, and the top two prep arms in the draft in Noble Meyer and Thomas White headlined their solid 2023 haul.
28. Los Angeles Angels: $87 million
29. Atlanta Braves: $79 million
30. Houston Astros: $70 million
It's interesting (and maybe only interesting?) that the bottom three farm systems in baseball belong to Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos and his two former lieutenants who have moved on to run other clubs: Dana Brown in Houston and Perry Minasian with the Angels. It's not by accident that all three teams are going for it this year, and the strategy is nothing new to the Braves and Astros.