In our Giant Killers tour of the NCAA tournament regions -- which previously included the East, West and Southeast regions -- we've run into some really good upset opportunities. But with the last bracket in our region-by-region look at upsets predicted by our Giant Killers statistical analysis, we may have the best chance of all for a Goliath-slayer.
(Note: Numbers in parentheses represent a team's Giant Killer score. The higher the number for underdogs, the more likely they can pull the upset. The higher the number for favorites, the more likely they are to fall. For a deeper explanation, click here.)
SOUTHEAST REGION
Best Bets
No. 12 Richmond (31.2 Giant Killer score, on a 100-point scale) vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt (75.9 Vulnerability score)
UPSET CHANCE:
If our model had pockets, it would empty them on this one. If it had an ATM card, it would max out the withdrawal. If it could play poker ... you get the idea. This is your best Giant Killer bet of the first round.
The chances for an upset here have more to do with Vanderbilt than Richmond. We're not sure what's up with the Commodores. Last year, our model ranked them as the fourth-most vulnerable Giant. Coupled with a ridiculously high GK rating for Murray State, that made us confident in a first-round upset, and the Racers came through. This year's Vandy team is even more troubling. The problems begin on defense, where the Commodores force turnovers on just 17.8 percent of possessions (302nd in the nation), rebound at barely an average rate and are just 76th in the NCAA in overall efficiency. But Vandy not only lets its foes score at will inside the arc, they generate just 45.2 percent of their own offense from close range, which contributes to a red flag the size of Graceland: the Commodores are getting outscored on two-point FGs by an unseemly 5.76 points per 100 possessions. Our model says that differential needs to go the other way for a Giant to be safe.
But this isn't all about Vandy -- Richmond has some Killer cred. Behind Justin Harper and Kevin Anderson, the Spiders hit 39.9 percent of their 3-pointers, and long-range shots account for 33.6 percent of their scoring, both outstanding totals. Meanwhile, they sew up opponents both inside the arc (ranking 41st in the country in opponent 2-point shooting) and outside (12th on 3s). And they hardly ever turn the ball over (just 16.8 percent of possessions). Add it all up, and if our model had arachnophobia ... oh, screw it, just pick Richmond.
Worth a Long Look
No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth (32.1) vs. No. 6 Georgetown (42.7)
UPSET CHANCE: 26.8 percent
VCU needs to beat USC on Wednesday, but if they do, the Rams will find a considerably more vulnerable Giant waiting for them in what is now the second round of the tournament. Even before PG Chris Wright broke his hand, the Hoyas' turnover differential was going the wrong way: They throw the ball away on 20.8 percent of possessions (ranking 215th in the NCAA) while forcing turnovers on just 18 percent of possessions (ranking 293rd), the worst gap of any Giant. On the same theme, though less important, they're extremely vulnerable to blocked shots (11.2 percent of 2-point attempts, 300th in the country). And while they shoot the lights out from inside (54.5 percent), Georgetown gets just an average proportion of its points from 2-pointers because the Hoyas like to shoot so many 3s, another danger sign for a Giant. After Wright's injury, Georgetown played horribly -- they lasted about five minutes in the Big East tournament -- and although their star point guard is back for the Big Dance, nobody knows whether he's fully recovered.
Meanwhile, VCU's game is full of holes, but it'll have fun as a potential Killer. The Rams are a bad rebounding team, and they let opponents shoot an unhealthy 49.2 percent from inside and 35.5 percent from downtown. But because they go after the ball, VCU is actually slightly above average overall on the defensive end; in extreme contrast to the Hoyas, the Rams generate turnovers on 22.6 percent of opponent possessions. They also avoid turnovers themselves (just 17.4 percent of possessions). And they're dominant on the perimeter, outscoring opponents by nearly 11 points per 100 possessions on 3-pointers. If Georgetown doesn't or can't bring its A-game inside and, uh, ram the ball down VCU's throat, this one will be interesting.
Not Completely Crazy
No. 15 Akron (15.9) vs. No. 2 Notre Dame (50.9)
UPSET CHANCE: 14.1 percent
Insert your own Zips joke here, but Notre Dame bears cringe-worthy similarities to past teams that have slipped up early. Only eight squads in the country forced fewer turnovers on a per-possession basis than the Fighting Irish. And they don't just struggle to guard the deep ball (opponents shoot 35 percent from long range); they're also getting smashed under the basket, scoring 1.62 fewer points per 100 possessions than opponents on 2-pointers. While that's all enough to get our model worried, however, Akron doesn't have the look of a classic Killer. The Zips are poor offensive rebounders (ORs on just 28.6 percent of misses, ranking 288th in the NCAA) and don't force many turnovers, so they can't generate the extra possessions that fuel most upsets. They do shoot it well from long-distance, generating 33.8 percent of their offense from 3-pointers. But they just don't have much else to fall back on against the Irish. The deep shot will have to carry Akron if they want to take advantage of a prime opportunity against a team waiting to be ... Zipped.
No. 13 Morehead State (16.4) vs. No. 4 Louisville (35.7)
UPSET CHANCE: 13.0 percent
This is one case where our model agrees with the conventional wisdom, which basically says rebounding machine Kenneth Faried has to swat the Cardinals into oblivion all by himself for Morehead State to have any chance of pulling an upset. How awesome is Faried? He leads the country in both offensive and defensive rebounds per opportunity, and this season became the NCAA career leader in total rebounds. He blocked these shots. And he has more rebounds than the combined total of the three front-court starters at Louisville, whose biggest weakness just so happens to be defensive rebounding (opponents are grabbing ORs on just 33.7 percent of misses, 240th in the NCAA).
Unfortunately for the Eagles, they're spendthrift with all those extra possessions Faried earns for them, turning the ball over on a horrible 23.3 percent of possessions (320th in the nation). They're also typically content to play inside, shooting 34.3 percent, just average on 3s, which has worked for them so far but doesn't provide the kind of juice Killers usually need to pull off upsets. Worst of all, Louisville may not need to challenge Faried much at all: the Cardinals get 35 percent of their points from three-pointers, and Morehead State has a lot of trouble defending the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot 36.9 percent from downtown (297th in the country). Given all these negative indicators, our model says the only way Faried will make a difference in this game is if Rick Pitino & Co. are somehow foolish enough to let him.
No. 14 St. Peter's (28.3) vs. No. 3 Purdue (25.2)
UPSET CHANCE: 11.5 percent
According to mainstream analysis, this should be a wipeout: Purdue has big-game experience and never loses in the first round, right? And we don't advise betting your nephew's college fund on St. Peter's. Purdue is indeed among the top 20 most efficient teams in the country on both offense and defense. And the Boilermakers force turnovers on 21.8 percent of possessions while giving up the ball on just 15.7 percent of possessions, an impressive differential that's the third-highest among all Giants. The Peacocks were the fourth-best team in the MAAC.
But Purdue relies heavily on its 3-point play: From behind the arc the Boilermakers outscore their opponents by more than 10 points per 100 possessions. That means they can be had on nights their long-range shots don't find the hoop. Purdue is in fact coming off back-to-back losses, to Michigan State in the Big Ten quarterfinals and to Iowa, where the Boilermakers doomed their chances by shooting a combined 8 for 41 (19.5 percent) from downtown. And St. Peter's, which must be psyched to have landed a 14-seed, plays just the kind of harassing defense that can keep cold opponents in a deep freeze. The Peacocks allow opponent to shoot just 40.6 percent on 2-point attempts (third-best in the nation) and only 30.5 percent on 3s. The odds are that St. Peter's won't score enough to make a go of an upset, but we bet that for many of this game's 40 minutes, Purdue fans will be more nervous than they expected.
Stay Away
No. 16 Boston University (17.5) vs. No. 1 Kansas (16.7)
UPSET CHANCE: 4.8 percent
Kansas outscores opponents on 2-point buckets by a Brobdingnagian 15.29 points per 100 possessions, while still generating more turnovers than it loses. BU ranks 235th in offensive rebounding, 288th in generating turnovers and 313th in 2-point shooting. You make the call.